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season expectedBy James Dunlevie
Updated October 13, 2014 16:40:20
Photo: A satellite image of severe tropical cyclone Monica approaching the NT coast in April 2006. (Supplied)
Related Story: The BoM has introduced a new weather language
Map: Darwin 0800
The Top End is facing a long, sticky wait until its first big rains thanks to El Niño conditions.
The Bureau Of Meteorology (BoM) today released a "near average outlook" for the northern region's cyclone season, with two or three cyclones predicted to threaten the NT coast.
In an average year, the northern region usually saw two or three named storms and one or two tropical lows that became tropical cyclones after moving into the western or eastern regions.
Todd Smith, BoM regional director for the Northern Territory, said Territorians had a bit of waiting to do before the much-anticipated big rains after the humidity of the NT's notorious build-up season.
"We are expecting the big rains associated with the monsoon a little later than normal, early in 2015," he said.
[h=2]Mango madness 'real'
Tropical seasonal affective disorder has been linked to stress and depression.
Mr Smith said while there may be occasional rains to break the humidity, the Top End's monsoon was a way off yet.
"During El Niño, ocean temperatures around Australia tend to be cooler, leading to decreased rainfall.
"The Top End typically sees a drier build-up and the monsoon arrives later. In an El Niño year, the first monsoon will be around January."
But Mr Smith said even with a late monsoon arrival, the Top End would not be short of rain.
"Once the monsoon does come, the NT could have still have an above average rainfall season."
[h=2]BoM admits 'low' forecast accuracyThe BoM admitted its forecast accuracy in the northern region was "low".
Mr Smith described the business of forecasting cyclones as "tough".
Asked about the accuracy rate of previous forecasts, he said the results were a "real mixed bag".
Photo: The BoM's forecast map for cyclone Gillian, early on Monday 10 March, 2014. (Bureau of Meteorology)
"Last season was a great example, with cyclone Alessia coming in from the west," he said.
"Our forecast track was followed very closely and the landfall timing was remarkably accurate.
"Later the same season we had cyclone Gillian, which bounced around in the gulf waters for about a week causing us all sort of grief in terms of trying to provide alert services for people along the coast."
Mr Smith said El Niño years meant more cyclonic activity in the Gulf off Carpentaria, renowned as one of the most unpredictable locations for forecasting the path of cyclones.
"Typically the gulf is more of a hotspot for cyclonic activity, rather than over in the Timor and Arafura seas.
"Maybe because it is surrounded on three sides by land. Cyclones in the Timor Sea tend to slide down over [the] west."
oto: Devastation in the city of Darwin after Cyclone Tracy struck early on Christmas Day 1974. (Supplied: Baz Ledwidge)
Updated October 13, 2014 16:40:20
Photo: A satellite image of severe tropical cyclone Monica approaching the NT coast in April 2006. (Supplied)Related Story: The BoM has introduced a new weather language
Map: Darwin 0800
The Top End is facing a long, sticky wait until its first big rains thanks to El Niño conditions.
The Bureau Of Meteorology (BoM) today released a "near average outlook" for the northern region's cyclone season, with two or three cyclones predicted to threaten the NT coast.
In an average year, the northern region usually saw two or three named storms and one or two tropical lows that became tropical cyclones after moving into the western or eastern regions.
Todd Smith, BoM regional director for the Northern Territory, said Territorians had a bit of waiting to do before the much-anticipated big rains after the humidity of the NT's notorious build-up season.
"We are expecting the big rains associated with the monsoon a little later than normal, early in 2015," he said.
[h=2]Mango madness 'real'
Tropical seasonal affective disorder has been linked to stress and depression.
Mr Smith said while there may be occasional rains to break the humidity, the Top End's monsoon was a way off yet.
"During El Niño, ocean temperatures around Australia tend to be cooler, leading to decreased rainfall.
"The Top End typically sees a drier build-up and the monsoon arrives later. In an El Niño year, the first monsoon will be around January."
But Mr Smith said even with a late monsoon arrival, the Top End would not be short of rain.
"Once the monsoon does come, the NT could have still have an above average rainfall season."
[h=2]BoM admits 'low' forecast accuracyThe BoM admitted its forecast accuracy in the northern region was "low".
Mr Smith described the business of forecasting cyclones as "tough".
Asked about the accuracy rate of previous forecasts, he said the results were a "real mixed bag".
Photo: The BoM's forecast map for cyclone Gillian, early on Monday 10 March, 2014. (Bureau of Meteorology)"Last season was a great example, with cyclone Alessia coming in from the west," he said.
"Our forecast track was followed very closely and the landfall timing was remarkably accurate.
"Later the same season we had cyclone Gillian, which bounced around in the gulf waters for about a week causing us all sort of grief in terms of trying to provide alert services for people along the coast."
Mr Smith said El Niño years meant more cyclonic activity in the Gulf off Carpentaria, renowned as one of the most unpredictable locations for forecasting the path of cyclones.
"Typically the gulf is more of a hotspot for cyclonic activity, rather than over in the Timor and Arafura seas.
"Maybe because it is surrounded on three sides by land. Cyclones in the Timor Sea tend to slide down over [the] west."
oto: Devastation in the city of Darwin after Cyclone Tracy struck early on Christmas Day 1974. (Supplied: Baz Ledwidge)
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