WESTCHESTER COUNTY, N.Y. -- Two of the chilliest words could be returning to Westchester County early this fall, according to AccuWeather: polar vortex.
"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said in a statement. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."
After the polar vortex exits the area, El Niño will make its debut in early winter and could bring significant snowfall.
"December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms," Pastelok said in a statement. "The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January."
A cold September? Forecast sees early polar vortex
BY JOHN E. USALISPublished: August 17, 2014
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The upcoming autumn months in the Northeast may be quite a bit colder than normal, according a long-range forecast.
An AccuWeather Global Weather Center forecast released on Aug. 6 showed the New England and Mid-Atlantic states will turn stormy this fall with very cold spells, on the West Coast droughts and wildfire threats will persist, the southern states could have severe storms and rainy weather, and the northern states in middle America show cold weather with chances of snow.
AccuWeather predicts that while the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region’s largest cities, including New York and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
“The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast,” said AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok. “There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late September.”
Pastelok said that as conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
“Temperatures will not be as extreme in November when compared to last year, but October could be an extreme month,” he said.
After short-lived days of the polar vortex in September, the weather should turn a bit warmer in November as rain ramps up across areas from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine, as well as the rest of the region.
“We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet,” Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niño will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
“December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms,” Pastelok said. “The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January.”
Meteorologist Elise Colbert at the National Weather Service office in State College said what will happen in the next few months is a bit of a toss-up with no trends that are evident.
“As far the Climate Prediction Center with our forecast, they do have some longer-range models they run and they will look at trends,” said Colbert. “If there is a definite trend colder or warmer, they’ll start by putting out an above- or below- normal outlook. Right now, we’re in equal chances and there’s really not any strong hint one way or another.”
Colbert said the State College office only forecasts out for seven days, and any longer-range forecasts come from a national office.
Michael Skotek, owner of Shamrock Oil Co. in Mahanoy Plane, which is part of Skotek Oil Sales, McAdoo, said planning for the winter season is not affected by long-range weather prognostications.
“There is a routine procedure that is used every year, and as far as the forecasts for the weather, personally I don’t pay much attention to them,” said Skotek. “Look how many times they’ve been wrong in the past. Over the years there have been many times that I heard we were supposed to have one of the worst winters ever and it turned out to be a mild winter.”
Skotek said he understands that the weather services have modern equipment and procedures to forecast future weather patterns.
“To me it seems like they’re trying to predict the winning numbers for the lottery,” he said. “It’s a long shot. I know they have a lot of scientific research that goes into it, but the weather still does what it wants to.”
As to whether a weather forecast affects the market cost of heating oil, Skotek said that’s when speculation comes into play, “and speculation is there to make money for the investors. The only trouble with making money for the investors is that the consumer has to put that money there for them.
“... Right now, it’s a soft market and the price is declining,” he said. “I know that they’re predicting that gasoline by the end of the year could be under $3 a gallon. When the (gasoline) pump goes down (in price), there is a lot of activity. We’ve been very busy the last few weeks because of the fact of the gas pumps coming down and people want to cash in on favorable pricing.”
