تشکر امیر محسن جان. چوب کاری میفرمایید قربان:خجالت2::گل:
برا ی شما خیلی عالی تر بود:گل:
-
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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
تشکر امیر محسن جان. چوب کاری میفرمایید قربان:خجالت2::گل:
برا ی شما خیلی عالی تر بود:گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام
انشاء الله که همینطوری بشه:خجالت2:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
وضع غرب دریای کاسپین حداقل تا 72 ساعت آینده که امیدوار کننده است.
این هم یک فریم از آپدیت امروز:
این هم یک فریم از آپدیت امروز:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
شهدای storm chasering !:ناراحت:
After the big wedge tornado chase on Friday, we were aware that many of chasers were very close to its path and got caught around the main circulation. One of them was the Twistex team, a well known chasing team featured on Discovry channel “storm chasers” series, who research tornadoes from close range with deploying probes in the path of tornadoes. Tim Samaras, Tim’s son Paul Samaras and Carl Young, were sadly killed with the El Reno tornado. This tragedy hit us badly in our chasing community, many of us are still in shock. Something went completely wrong in the bear’s cage there, tornado made a sharp turn from its ESE movement towards NE and caught many on its path. Might likely be a mesocyclone occlusion which caused the sharp changing direction of movement. This tornado was preliminary rated EF-3, but details are yet to come later this week. Total of 16 people were killed o this day in tornadoes around Oklahoma city. Our thughts are with Samaras and Young families, may you rest in peace, brothers! You will surely be missed as well as all the work you have done with the tornado research. Their team was a major inspiration for many of us, they were one of the top researchers our there! We chasers, made a tribute to their names on spotter network, you can see their initials TS, PS and CY.
یادشان گرامی و روحشان شاد باد:ناراحت::گل:
After the big wedge tornado chase on Friday, we were aware that many of chasers were very close to its path and got caught around the main circulation. One of them was the Twistex team, a well known chasing team featured on Discovry channel “storm chasers” series, who research tornadoes from close range with deploying probes in the path of tornadoes. Tim Samaras, Tim’s son Paul Samaras and Carl Young, were sadly killed with the El Reno tornado. This tragedy hit us badly in our chasing community, many of us are still in shock. Something went completely wrong in the bear’s cage there, tornado made a sharp turn from its ESE movement towards NE and caught many on its path. Might likely be a mesocyclone occlusion which caused the sharp changing direction of movement. This tornado was preliminary rated EF-3, but details are yet to come later this week. Total of 16 people were killed o this day in tornadoes around Oklahoma city. Our thughts are with Samaras and Young families, may you rest in peace, brothers! You will surely be missed as well as all the work you have done with the tornado research. Their team was a major inspiration for many of us, they were one of the top researchers our there! We chasers, made a tribute to their names on spotter network, you can see their initials TS, PS and CY.
یادشان گرامی و روحشان شاد باد:ناراحت::گل:
فوق‌العادس سجاد،بعد از این امتحان لعنتی دوست دارم فقط برم یه همچنین جایی ۱ ماه کنار رودخونه زندگی کنم.روحمون تازه شد
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود بهروز عزیز
به به :گل:
خیلی خوشحالم که دوبار تونستید بعد از امتحانات سخت تون ، به اینجا سر بزنید:گل::شاد2::گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این case study در مورد سوپر سل ماه نوامبر در اسلونی ، هم تقدیم به شما بهروز عزیزم:گل:
Yes, like as said in the title, an intense long-lived supercell travelled across central Slovenia today, bringing intense rain and large hail at some locations. Its November 2nd, yes, early November! One would be surprised to hear thunder so late in the fall season, not being shocked like many of us after seeing radar scans this afternoon. But conditions were there, supportive of rotating storms. I bet it doesn’t need to describe this image… its just perfect! Did I mention November is almost winter month here?
A large and deep trough is located over NW Europe with very strong mid-level jet rounding it on the southern flank. Over the Alps, in addition, a short-wave trough crossed the region in the mid-day today, providing some forcing needed for lifting. Surface charts showed a weak frontal boundary crossing the Alps as well, which seemed to be another focus in today’s trigger for storms.
During the morning hours, mostly showers and some weakly electrified convection was occuring over the Dynaric mountain range in Slovenia, but at around 12 UTC, a stronger cell formed near Škofja Loka, NW of Ljubljana in central Slovenia. In that area, topography slowly diminishing towards east. Looking over the SFC data from automatic stations from national meteo agency (ARSO), conditions in front of cell were showing light SE-E-NE-erly winds… (time | T | Td | avg wind | wind direction | wind gusts):
Ljubljana – airport Jože Pučnik
13:30 UTC | 11.9°C | 10.0°C | 1.4 m/s | SE | 3.0 m/s
14:00 UTC | 11.2°C | 9.6°C | 0.9 m/s | N | 3.6 m/s
14:30 UTC | 11.3°C | 10.2°C | 0.1 m/s | WNW | 0.9 m/s
City of Ljubljana – Bežigrad
13:30 UTC | 13.6°C | 9.7°C | 0.9 m/s | ENE | 2.5 m/s
14:00 UTC | 14.0°C | 10.0°C | 0.9 m/s | NNE | 4.7 m/s
14:30 UTC | 13.7°C | 9.4°C | 2.4 m/s | NNW | 5.4 m/s
The cell then quite rapidly gain organization and move straight east into the Ljubljana basin. More or less an easterly LL winds provided some inflow towards the higher terrain (a sort of upslope flow from the Ljubljana basin towards the slopes of eastern Dynaric mountains). The cell intensified and radar quickly showed an intese core.
Looking over the closest skew-t diagram, Udine 12z, there was more than 40kt deep layer shear and a few hundreds J/kg of CAPE (Udine skew-t was modified with SFC data from Ljubljana at 13 UTC). Notice also the SREH3, clearly being supportive for rotating updrafts.
It has to be noted that Udine lies around 80km west of Ljubljana basin where supercell occured, not too far. Its on the western side of Dynaric mountain range. But as seen on morning model run, airmass was expected to be more favorable for storms east of the mountain range, MLCAPE was simulated to be between 400 and 700 J/kg. Although CAPE was rather poor and limiting factor according to the sounding, I believe the airmass was indeed different in central Slovenia and CAPE was higher. This is simulated MLCAPE map for 12z from WRF model, showing around 3-400 J/kg in central Slovenia:
Looks like conditions were just appropriate to develop a low topped supercell which then surprisedly remained well organized for almost 2 hours, travelling from its start NW of Ljubljana via Litija towards border with Croatia near Krško. From the animations below it can be nicely seen how the storm was an obvious right moving supercell. Pretty impressive first to be so organized and especially in this time of the year with so limited instability, although within good wind shear profiles.
This is radar animation from OSMER/Fossalon radar from NE Italy…
Here is a 3hrs accumulated rainfalls calculated from OSMER radar, nicely seen quite fast moving cell as scans are made every 10min…
I was unable to chase today, but thankfully there are several webcams in Ljubljana and I was able to spot the supercell on them. Storm was moving just a few km N of Ljubljana, so it was a good view from the city. This is the webcam from Ljubljana pointing towards NW (shot at 1340 UTC); nicely visible tilted mesocyclone with small inflow tail beneath it from the right…
This is the same camera but pointing towards N from Ljubljana (shot at 1350 UTC); impressive structure of a supercell coming into the view from the left, notice a mesocyclone with striations and large low-hanging wall cloud beneath it. Looks like it was only 2-300m AGL!
This is view towards NW from Ljubljana (shot at 1400 UTC); notice the still nice shape of the mesocyclone and RFD cutting into the wall cloud from the left!
A view from the same spot towards E, still visible lowering (wall cloud) while departuring Ljubljana basin into the hilly terrain. But this didn’t kill the storm, it managed to even intensify more as it was moving near Litija and further ESE! Refer to radar below…
This is overlay radar scans animation from ARSO-LISCA location where google maps is placed as a layer…
Some locations reported very intense rain with the storm as well as some marginally lrge hail 1-2cm in diameter, which is quite surprising for this time of the year, though for sure not surprising at all it we look on the radar scans. Here is a radar grab when the storm crossed main road Litija – Zagorje and hail falling was reported:
Additional view from Croatian radar BILOGORA, animation of storm travelling across central Slovenia…
A view from the VIS satellite at 1415 UTC
Some interesting scans… LISCA and OSMER radar and lightning activity along the moving storm. Impressive to see such a high reflectivity at this time of the year! On the bottom left scan you can actually see sort of a hook echo shape!
Additionally, attaching again Udine 12z sounding as well as Zagreb 12z, both locations are in radius 70-80km from the storm’s location. Impressive wind profiles and shear!
My fellow chaser Jure Atanackov was thankfully in Ljubljana, so he managed to jump on a short chase around the city and brough some photos of the structure, here are few of them.
This shot showing a nicely striated mesocyclone with large wall cloud beneath it…
On this photo which was shot on the road from Ljubljana towards Trzin, one can clearly notice the rotation and textbook RFD cut from the left. How impressive is that for November! Thanks to Jure to be there in perfect time!
Further east clear view over the structure, RFD cutting into the wall cloud, Jure described it was quite rapidly rotating and might be even a brief funnel cloud in there; we marked it with an arrow. Unfortunatelly there is no animation of the movement, so we could see it better, but anyway impressive structure for such a time of the year at least to say. Actually, wouldn’t shame such a structured supercell even during summer!
So at the end we could easily say season 2012 doesn’t want to end yet! We’re already 2 months far from the summer end and nature still brings surprises! This event was not extreme by its severity, but for sure was an extremely rare event for this time of the year here, it has to be repeated once again!
Stay tuned for future blog updates.
Yes, like as said in the title, an intense long-lived supercell travelled across central Slovenia today, bringing intense rain and large hail at some locations. Its November 2nd, yes, early November! One would be surprised to hear thunder so late in the fall season, not being shocked like many of us after seeing radar scans this afternoon. But conditions were there, supportive of rotating storms. I bet it doesn’t need to describe this image… its just perfect! Did I mention November is almost winter month here?
A large and deep trough is located over NW Europe with very strong mid-level jet rounding it on the southern flank. Over the Alps, in addition, a short-wave trough crossed the region in the mid-day today, providing some forcing needed for lifting. Surface charts showed a weak frontal boundary crossing the Alps as well, which seemed to be another focus in today’s trigger for storms.
During the morning hours, mostly showers and some weakly electrified convection was occuring over the Dynaric mountain range in Slovenia, but at around 12 UTC, a stronger cell formed near Škofja Loka, NW of Ljubljana in central Slovenia. In that area, topography slowly diminishing towards east. Looking over the SFC data from automatic stations from national meteo agency (ARSO), conditions in front of cell were showing light SE-E-NE-erly winds… (time | T | Td | avg wind | wind direction | wind gusts):Ljubljana – airport Jože Pučnik
13:30 UTC | 11.9°C | 10.0°C | 1.4 m/s | SE | 3.0 m/s
14:00 UTC | 11.2°C | 9.6°C | 0.9 m/s | N | 3.6 m/s
14:30 UTC | 11.3°C | 10.2°C | 0.1 m/s | WNW | 0.9 m/s
City of Ljubljana – Bežigrad
13:30 UTC | 13.6°C | 9.7°C | 0.9 m/s | ENE | 2.5 m/s
14:00 UTC | 14.0°C | 10.0°C | 0.9 m/s | NNE | 4.7 m/s
14:30 UTC | 13.7°C | 9.4°C | 2.4 m/s | NNW | 5.4 m/s
The cell then quite rapidly gain organization and move straight east into the Ljubljana basin. More or less an easterly LL winds provided some inflow towards the higher terrain (a sort of upslope flow from the Ljubljana basin towards the slopes of eastern Dynaric mountains). The cell intensified and radar quickly showed an intese core.
Looking over the closest skew-t diagram, Udine 12z, there was more than 40kt deep layer shear and a few hundreds J/kg of CAPE (Udine skew-t was modified with SFC data from Ljubljana at 13 UTC). Notice also the SREH3, clearly being supportive for rotating updrafts.
It has to be noted that Udine lies around 80km west of Ljubljana basin where supercell occured, not too far. Its on the western side of Dynaric mountain range. But as seen on morning model run, airmass was expected to be more favorable for storms east of the mountain range, MLCAPE was simulated to be between 400 and 700 J/kg. Although CAPE was rather poor and limiting factor according to the sounding, I believe the airmass was indeed different in central Slovenia and CAPE was higher. This is simulated MLCAPE map for 12z from WRF model, showing around 3-400 J/kg in central Slovenia:
Looks like conditions were just appropriate to develop a low topped supercell which then surprisedly remained well organized for almost 2 hours, travelling from its start NW of Ljubljana via Litija towards border with Croatia near Krško. From the animations below it can be nicely seen how the storm was an obvious right moving supercell. Pretty impressive first to be so organized and especially in this time of the year with so limited instability, although within good wind shear profiles.
This is radar animation from OSMER/Fossalon radar from NE Italy…
Here is a 3hrs accumulated rainfalls calculated from OSMER radar, nicely seen quite fast moving cell as scans are made every 10min…
I was unable to chase today, but thankfully there are several webcams in Ljubljana and I was able to spot the supercell on them. Storm was moving just a few km N of Ljubljana, so it was a good view from the city. This is the webcam from Ljubljana pointing towards NW (shot at 1340 UTC); nicely visible tilted mesocyclone with small inflow tail beneath it from the right…
This is the same camera but pointing towards N from Ljubljana (shot at 1350 UTC); impressive structure of a supercell coming into the view from the left, notice a mesocyclone with striations and large low-hanging wall cloud beneath it. Looks like it was only 2-300m AGL!
This is view towards NW from Ljubljana (shot at 1400 UTC); notice the still nice shape of the mesocyclone and RFD cutting into the wall cloud from the left!
A view from the same spot towards E, still visible lowering (wall cloud) while departuring Ljubljana basin into the hilly terrain. But this didn’t kill the storm, it managed to even intensify more as it was moving near Litija and further ESE! Refer to radar below…
This is overlay radar scans animation from ARSO-LISCA location where google maps is placed as a layer…
Some locations reported very intense rain with the storm as well as some marginally lrge hail 1-2cm in diameter, which is quite surprising for this time of the year, though for sure not surprising at all it we look on the radar scans. Here is a radar grab when the storm crossed main road Litija – Zagorje and hail falling was reported:
Additional view from Croatian radar BILOGORA, animation of storm travelling across central Slovenia…
A view from the VIS satellite at 1415 UTC
Some interesting scans… LISCA and OSMER radar and lightning activity along the moving storm. Impressive to see such a high reflectivity at this time of the year! On the bottom left scan you can actually see sort of a hook echo shape!
Additionally, attaching again Udine 12z sounding as well as Zagreb 12z, both locations are in radius 70-80km from the storm’s location. Impressive wind profiles and shear!
My fellow chaser Jure Atanackov was thankfully in Ljubljana, so he managed to jump on a short chase around the city and brough some photos of the structure, here are few of them.This shot showing a nicely striated mesocyclone with large wall cloud beneath it…
On this photo which was shot on the road from Ljubljana towards Trzin, one can clearly notice the rotation and textbook RFD cut from the left. How impressive is that for November! Thanks to Jure to be there in perfect time!
Further east clear view over the structure, RFD cutting into the wall cloud, Jure described it was quite rapidly rotating and might be even a brief funnel cloud in there; we marked it with an arrow. Unfortunatelly there is no animation of the movement, so we could see it better, but anyway impressive structure for such a time of the year at least to say. Actually, wouldn’t shame such a structured supercell even during summer!
So at the end we could easily say season 2012 doesn’t want to end yet! We’re already 2 months far from the summer end and nature still brings surprises! This event was not extreme by its severity, but for sure was an extremely rare event for this time of the year here, it has to be repeated once again!Stay tuned for future blog updates.
وضع غرب دریای کاسپین حداقل تا 72 ساعت آینده که امیدوار کننده است.
این هم یک فریم از آپدیت امروز:
فوركا معتقده حداقل 70 ميل باران در راهه !!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
کاملا درسته این تصویری که من گذاشتم یک فریم از میان دهها فریم، بارش 6 ساعته هست:گل:
امير محسن جان تا الان هم خيلي دير شده !!!! وسط شهريوريم و اين هنوز اولين بارش درست و حسابي ماست !:تعجب2:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فایل پیش بینی فصلی پاییز وب هوای مشهد که در روز 15 شهریور منتشر کرده بودمش در لینک زیر هم موجوده که یادم رفته بودم لینکش رو بذارم
http://www.scribd.com/doc/166068468/پیش-بینی-فصلی-پاییز-1392
http://www.scribd.com/doc/166068468/پیش-بینی-فصلی-پاییز-1392
بخش مربوط به دریای مدیترانه اش جالبه!
Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, near the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the southern Cape Verde Islands, as the depression is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Humberto within the next day or two as it brushes those islands.
It may reach hurricane strength shortly thereafter; if so, this would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2013 season.
(MORE: Record latest first Atlantic hurricane?)
With that said, thanks to the Bermuda-Azores high becoming more of an "Azores high", coupled with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) nosing southwestward from the Mediterranean into the eastern Atlantic, this new depression (and future storm) is likely to turn toward the northwest or north by mid-late week.
Increasingly strong west to southwest winds expected to develop across the central Atlantic Ocean are expected to deflect this system well east of Bermuda next week. It is no threat to the Caribbean Sea or mainland U.S.
به نظر میاد این مرکز کمفشار بخاطر وضعیت قرارگیری پرفشار آزور و باد های جنوب غربی (همون بادهای تجاری) اجازه ورود به خاک قاره آمریکا رو پیدا نمیکنه و در امتداد سواحل شرقی رهسپار اروپا خواهد شد که نشخصا وقتی به اونجا میرسه دیگه هاریکن نیست و تبدیل به یک سیکلون قوی اقیانوسی خواهد شد.
احتمالا قوی بودن بادهای تجاری در امسال، امکان برخورد هاریکن ها رو با حوزه دریای کارائیب و آمریکای شمالی کاهش خواهد داد.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the southern Cape Verde Islands, as the depression is expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Humberto within the next day or two as it brushes those islands.
It may reach hurricane strength shortly thereafter; if so, this would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2013 season.
(MORE: Record latest first Atlantic hurricane?)
With that said, thanks to the Bermuda-Azores high becoming more of an "Azores high", coupled with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) nosing southwestward from the Mediterranean into the eastern Atlantic, this new depression (and future storm) is likely to turn toward the northwest or north by mid-late week.
Increasingly strong west to southwest winds expected to develop across the central Atlantic Ocean are expected to deflect this system well east of Bermuda next week. It is no threat to the Caribbean Sea or mainland U.S.
به نظر میاد این مرکز کمفشار بخاطر وضعیت قرارگیری پرفشار آزور و باد های جنوب غربی (همون بادهای تجاری) اجازه ورود به خاک قاره آمریکا رو پیدا نمیکنه و در امتداد سواحل شرقی رهسپار اروپا خواهد شد که نشخصا وقتی به اونجا میرسه دیگه هاریکن نیست و تبدیل به یک سیکلون قوی اقیانوسی خواهد شد.
احتمالا قوی بودن بادهای تجاری در امسال، امکان برخورد هاریکن ها رو با حوزه دریای کارائیب و آمریکای شمالی کاهش خواهد داد.
آخرین ویرایش:
خودتو زیاد با فورکا دگیر نکن تازگی اشتباه زیاد داره تقربا تا30 میلیمتر بیاد دیگه, نقشیه کارشناس هواشناسی هم امروز صبح گفت.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آپدیت جدید تا 132 ساعت آینده:
سلام علیکم
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