Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خواهش میکنم هادی عزیز
انیمیشن آنومالی دما یک فریم کم داشت اصلاح شد:
انیمیشن آنومالی دما یک فریم کم داشت اصلاح شد:
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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل اول( مهر- آبان-آذر)
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
تصویر ماهواره ای زیر ابرهای مستعد بارش رو در ساعت 22:30 دقیقه امشب نشون میداده:
حالا تصویر زیر رو که واسه همون ساعت هست برای تصویر IR ماهواره ای بیینید و به خوبی متوجه میشید که هر ابری شرایط مناسب بارش رو نداره:
حالا تصویر زیر رو که واسه همون ساعت هست برای تصویر IR ماهواره ای بیینید و به خوبی متوجه میشید که هر ابری شرایط مناسب بارش رو نداره:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فاز 4 mjo تو ماه دسامبر بینظیره خدایا شکرت:
فاز 4 mjo تو ماه دسامبر بینظیره خدایا شکرت:
پارسال اون بالا همش پرارتفاع بود و حالا برعکس
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اینم فاز 3 برای نوامبر و دسامبر:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اگه به پیشبینی نروژ توجه کنیم شاید جای صحیح مشهد رو هم من هم شما یاد بگیریم ( با توجه به شباهت آپ کانادا با ای سی ام بنا به گفته خودتون )
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بخیال شین خواهشا!
همین نروژ و ECMWF و کانادا کدوم شون بارشهای سنگین دیروز در مشهد رو درست پیش بینی کردن ؟
این سامانه های غیر قابل پیش بینی هستند و هر لحظه با تغییرات شدیدی در خصوص نوع فعالیت مواجه هستند اگه که خیلی علاقه دارید برید مطلب زیر رو بخونید دیگه لازم نیست اینقدر اپدیت نقشه ها رو با استرس دنبال کنید و آه ناله از اپدیت نقشه ها و حفره بارشی سر بدین:
Upper Level Low - Meteorological Physical Background
Upper Level Low - Weather Events
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این هم هست:
Upper Level Low - Key Parameters
Upper Level Low - Key Parameters
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اینهم میتونه مفید باشه:
Cold-core low - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Cold-core low - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
اصلا بحث درست بودن پیشبینی نیست من هم بارها گفتم که مدل نیرو دریایی بیشتر قبول دارم.بحث سر این بود که آپ کانادا واسه مشهد خوب نبود که هادی گرامی گفتن شما جای مشهد رو اشتباه روی نقشه فرض میکنی..
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Upper Level Low - Cloud Structure In Satellite Images
Upper Level Lows are relatively long-lived (mostly from 2 to 10 days) phenomena. Their life cycle consists of three stages:
[h=2]2. Tear-off The bottom of the upper trough is detached from the main stream resulting in a closed circulation.
[h=2]3. Cut-off stage The Upper Level Low is separated from the main upper stream.
[h=2]4. Final stage The Upper Level Low merges with the main stream, or dissolves slowly while being almost stationary.
On the 14th of September 2005 at 06.00 UTC there is an elongated upper trough over Southern Spain and Gibraltar.
6 hours later tear-off occurs over Southern Spain.
On the 15th of September 2005 at 12.00 UTC the separate Upper Level Low is clearly seen with core convection.
On the 16th of September 2005 at 12.00 UTC the Upper Level Low is merging with an upper trough coming from the Atlantic.
Six hours later there is only disappearing trough left.
The air below an Upper Level Low is potentially unstable, which leads to the so-called core convection and convective cloudiness. Over warm sea this convective development can be intensive. Contrary to this, the centre of an Upper Level Low over land is often overcast with low or middle level cloudiness with some convective cells embedded. Other conceptual models that may look like an Upper Level Low in satellite images are Comma (see Comma ) and Polar Low (see Polar Low ). These can be separated from each other with the help of numerical fields, especially on the 500 hPa level.
by ZAMG and FMI
Upper Level Lows are relatively long-lived (mostly from 2 to 10 days) phenomena. Their life cycle consists of three stages:
- Upper level trough
- Tear-off
- Cut-off
- Final stage
- In IR10.8 images white or light grey cloud band connected to the frontal zone on the leading side of the trough, some thin white cloud stripes due to Cloud Fibres on the rear side and possibly some convective white cells around the axis of the trough.
- In VIS0.6 images white or light grey cloud band connected to the front on the leading side of the trough and possibly some convective white cells around the axis of the trough.
- In WV6.2 images light grey bands on the leading and rear part of the trough.
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[h=2]2. Tear-off The bottom of the upper trough is detached from the main stream resulting in a closed circulation.
- In IR10.8 images white to light grey cyclonically curved cloud band on the leading side of the trough, possibly also on the rear side. Some white convective shells may occur between the bands.
- In VIS0.6 images grey cyclonically curved cloud band on the leading side of the trough, possibly also on the rear side. Some white convective shells may occur between the bands.
- In WV6.2 images grey cyclonically curved cloud band around the detaching low.
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[h=2]3. Cut-off stage The Upper Level Low is separated from the main upper stream.
- In IR10.8 and VIS0.6 images white to light grey cyclonically curved cloud bands on the leading and rear side of the low, later forming a spiral. Possibly some white convestive cells within it.
- In WV6.2 images round area or a spiral of grey, with some white cells on the leading side.
- In the WV6.2-WV7.3;IR9.7i-IR10.8i;WV6.2 combination ("airmass") the descending stratosperic air in the centre of the Upper Level Low appears dark red, and the cold pool appears bluish
- In WV6.2-WV7.3;IR3.9i-IR10.8i;NIR1.6i-VIS0.6 combination ("convective storms") convective clouds appear red; strong, growing cells are yellow.
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[h=2]4. Final stage The Upper Level Low merges with the main stream, or dissolves slowly while being almost stationary.
- In IR10.8 and VIS0.6 images there are light grey cyclonically curved stripes that merge with a white cloud band of a frontal zone.
- In WV6.2 images there is a dark grey area that soon disappears under the light grey of the frontal zone.
| 1. The cloudiness belonging to the main stream is approaching | |
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| 2. The ULL cloudiness merges with the frontal cloudiness |
On the 14th of September 2005 at 06.00 UTC there is an elongated upper trough over Southern Spain and Gibraltar.
| 14 September 2005/06.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image | 14 September 2005/06.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image |
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6 hours later tear-off occurs over Southern Spain.
| 14 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image | 14 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image |
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| 14 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 HIRVIS image | |
On the 15th of September 2005 at 12.00 UTC the separate Upper Level Low is clearly seen with core convection.
| 15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image | 15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image |
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| 15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 HIRVIS image | |
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| 15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 Airmass RGB image | 15 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 Convection RGB image |
On the 16th of September 2005 at 12.00 UTC the Upper Level Low is merging with an upper trough coming from the Atlantic.
| 16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image | 16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image |
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| 16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 HIRVIS image | |
Six hours later there is only disappearing trough left.
| 16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 IR 10.8 image | 16 September 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat 8 WV 6.2 image |
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The air below an Upper Level Low is potentially unstable, which leads to the so-called core convection and convective cloudiness. Over warm sea this convective development can be intensive. Contrary to this, the centre of an Upper Level Low over land is often overcast with low or middle level cloudiness with some convective cells embedded. Other conceptual models that may look like an Upper Level Low in satellite images are Comma (see Comma ) and Polar Low (see Polar Low ). These can be separated from each other with the help of numerical fields, especially on the 500 hPa level.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]Over Land
An Upper Level Low over Poland on the 8th of June 2005 at 12.00 UTC.
| Parameter | Description |
| Precipitation | In summer season:
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| Temperature |
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| Wind (incl. gusts) |
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| Other relevant information |
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| | 08 June 2005/12.00 UTC - Meteosat IR 10.8 image, weather events (green: rain and showers, cyan: snow, yellow: fog and mist, black: no precipitation) |
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
GEO weather
- وضعیت