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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل اول( مهر- آبان-آذر)

وضعیت
موضوع بسته شده است.

samann

کاربر ويژه
ریزش اولین قطرات باران رو به همشهریان و هم استانی های عزیز تبریک میگم
انشالله شروع خوبی واسه سالی پرخیر و برکت باشه.
فک کنم سال 90 هم اولین بارش در 16 مهر رخ داد
 

heaven1

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
[h=4]Mashhad Airport Current weather observation
The report was made 10 minutes ago, at 19:00 UTC
Wind 5 m/s from the Southeast
Temperature 13°C
Humidity 44%
Pressure 1024 hPa
Visibility 3000 m
Few clouds at a height of 1067 m ,Cumulonimbus.
Few clouds at a height of 1219 m
Scattered clouds at a height of 2743m
light rain showers
 

heaven1

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
قوچان


Saturday11/10/2014

[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]21:00–03:00[/TD]
[TD]
01n.58.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]9°[/TD]
[TD]0 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindpil.0025.300.png
Light breeze, 3 m/s from west-northwest[/TD]

[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]03:00–09:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
03d.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]6°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]0.3 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindpil.0025.300.png
Light breeze, 3 m/s from west-northwest[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]09:00–15:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
05d.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus"]10°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]1.4 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, align: left"]
vindpil.0025.320.png
Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northwest[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]15:00–21:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
40n.58.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]13°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]0.6 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindpil.0050.330.png
Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northwest[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="align: left"]Sunday12/10/2014[/TH]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]21:00–03:00[/TD]
[TD]
09.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]6°[/TD]
[TD]1.8 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindpil.0000.300.png
Light air, 1 m/s from west-northwest[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]03:00–09:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
04.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]6°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]0.4 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindstille.png
Calm, 0 m/s[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]09:00–15:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
01d.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus"]8°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]0.3 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, align: left"]
vindpil.0000.005.png
Light air, 1 m/s from north[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]15:00–21:00[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]
01n.61.png
[/TD]
[TD="class: temperature plus, bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]11°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F8FCFD"]0 mm[/TD]
[TD="class: txt-left, bgcolor: #F8FCFD, align: left"]
vindpil.0025.070.png
Light breeze, 3 m/s from east-northeast[/TD]
[/TR]
 

heaven1

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
مشهد فردا

TimeForecastTemp.PrecipitationWind
00:00–06:00
09.png
10°1.9 mm
vindpil.0025.160.png
Light breeze, 3 m/s from south-southeast
06:00–12:00
46.png
0.6 mm
vindpil.0050.130.png
Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from southeast
12:00–18:00
04.png
10°0 mm
vindpil.0050.120.png
Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from east-southeast
18:00–00:00
03n.47.png
0 mm
vindpil.0050.125.png
Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from southeast
 

سیبری

کاربر ويژه
اخطاریه اکوویدر برای امامقلی قوچان
Rain from late Saturday night to Sunday morning, when it will mix with snow; watch for icy spots
 

Mahdi Askari

مدير فنی
سلام دوستان
نرم افزار خوب هواشناسی برای آندروید سراغ دارید؟ ممنون اگر راهنمایی کنید
این دوتا رو سرچ کردم پیدا کردم
WeatherPro
GO Weather
 

Ahmad7777

New member
بارش شدید بارون در غرب مشهد.
اولین بارون پاییزی سال 1393 را به همشهری های عزیزم تبریک میگم.
:گل::گل:
 

DR WHO

کاربر ويژه
Site » News stories

News

[h=2]Is The El Nino Dead?07.10.2014

07.10.2014 06:35 Age: 14 hrs


[h=2]Latest reports from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that the nascent El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event appears to have waned. Click to enlarge. Weekly sea surface temperature (SST) changes. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. Monthly sea surface temperature (SST) changes. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. The sub-surface temperature map for 5 days. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to August). Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. Trade wind anomalies. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. Cloudiness near the Date Line. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. Climate models. Courtesy BoM.
Click to enlarge. Values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index. Courtesy BoM.


Data indicates that the expected El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event may be waning and that if it occurs at all then it will be extremely weak.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) says, in its latest update published today (7 October 2014), that tropical Pacific Ocean indicators “remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Nino”.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its weekly update published yesterday (6 October 2014) that equatorial Pacific upper-ocean heat anomalies are near zero and that this together with the temperature gradient in the ocean “reflect ENSO-neutral conditions”.
Both agencies suggest the chances of an El Nino taking place are above average. BoM states that computer models indicate a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino in coming months – this is twice the usual probability. NOAA continues to predict that the chance of an El Nino is at 60-65 per cent during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter – although this may change with its next monthly discussion (known as the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion) due out soon.
The evidence suggests that the Pacific Ocean is drifting away from El Nino conditions. BoM says that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (the variation to the long term average) have cooled in the central tropical Pacific over the past two weeks with some warming in the eastern tropical Pacific although positive anomalies are present along most of the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial Pacific has cooled in the east and warmed in the central region when compared to the preceding month. Sub-surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific are near average, although slightly warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
The southern oscillation index (SOI) – a key measure used by El Nino watchers – which compares the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin in Australia has also moved away from the El Nino threshold. The 30-day SOI value to 5 October is −6.3. Sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Below is the text of the El Nino report issued today, 7 October 2014, by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with graphics on the right:
[h=4]Neutral, but El Niño WATCH remainsIssued on Tuesday 7 October 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Niño. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014.
Atmospheric indicators of El Niño have remained neutral over recent months. Tropical cloud patterns and trade winds have only had brief periods with El Niño-like values since May. Despite a recent drop into El Niño territory, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to neutral values over the past fortnight.
Model outlooks and current observations mean the Bureau’s El Niño WATCH remains in place, indicating double the normal chance (50%) of an El Niño over the coming months.
While still falling short of El Niño thresholds, the tropical Pacific Ocean remains warmer than average. When combined with recent cool water to the north of Australia, conditions favour below-average rainfall over much of Australia for the remainder of 2014.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral recently after being consistently negative since June. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate neutral conditions are very likely to remain during the last quarter of 2014.
[h=4]Weekly sea surface temperaturesSea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have cooled in the central tropical Pacific over the past two weeks with some warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. Positive anomalies are present along most of the equatorial Pacific (see SST anomaly map for the week ending 5 October). Warm anomalies are also present across large areas of Indian Ocean and across most of the northern Pacific Basin. Weak cool anomalies have returned to areas to the north of Australia around the Torres Strait and Timor Sea over the past fortnight.
[h=4]Monthly sea surface temperaturesThe SST anomaly map for September shows the equatorial Pacific cooled in the east and warmed in the central region when compared to the preceding month. September SSTs were above average across nearly the entire equatorial Pacific as well as across much of the northern Pacific and extending into the Indian Ocean.
[h=4]5-day sub-surface temperaturesThe sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 5 October shows temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific sub-surface are near average, to slightly warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. As substantial areas of the central and eastern Pacific have low data coverage, as indicated by point observations (cross markings) on the image below, other sources of sub-surface data have also been considered.
[h=4]Monthly sub-surface temperaturesThe four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to September) shows warm anomalies are present in parts of the sub-surface profile: below 150 m depth in the western Pacific and across the shallow sub-surface from west of the Date Line to around 120°W. The sub-surface plot also shows areas of cool anomalies in the sub-surface of the far western and shallow eastern equatorial Pacific.
[h=4]Southern Oscillation IndexThe Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past fortnight. The latest 30-day SOI value to 5 October is −6.3.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
[h=4]Trade windsTrade winds are weaker than average over the far western tropical Pacific and near-average over the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 5 October).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
[h=4]Cloudiness near the Date LineCloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly above average over the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during El Niño and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during La Niña.
[h=4]Model outlooksSix of the eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the possibility of ocean conditions nearing El Niño thresholds by early summer, with the remainder favouring persistence of neutral conditions. For those models which indicate a possible El Niño, the forecast peak central equatorial Pacific SSTs range from borderline to moderate El Niño levels. This suggests any event is likely to be relatively weak.
[h=4]Indian Ocean DipoleThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has continued to rise over the past two weeks. The latest weekly index value to 5 October is +0.3 °C. Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks favour a continuation of neutral IOD values over the remainder of spring.

 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اولین بارش فراگیر پاییزی در نواحی شمالی استانهای خراسان رضوی و شمالی



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تاریخ : سه شنبه پانزدهم مهر 1393
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نویسنده : امیر محسن
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نظر بدهید


با عرض پوزش از خوانندگان محترم وب سایت هوای مشهد بدلیل تاخیر در آپدیت سایت بدلیل مسافرت. و اما تحلیل هواشناسی امشب:
بدلیل گسترش سامانه پرفشار اسکاندیناوی تا امتداد مرزهای شمالی کشور و بصورت همزمان گذر امواج ناپایدار تراز میانی جو ،از بعد از ظهر امروز وضعیت جوی در نواحی شمالی استان خراسان رضوی و همچنین خراسان شمالی با وزش باد شدید گرد و خاک بهمراه کاهش محسوس دما ، بصورت ناگهانی دگرگون گردید:
آنومالی فشار سطح دریا مدل ECMWF​
ecmwf_mslpa_asia_2.png
حرکت ساعتگرد پرفشار قدرتمند اسکاندیناوی که از سمت نواحی شمالی اروپا به سوی منطقه ما گسترده شده ، شرایط مناسبی را برای ریزش هوای سردی که مرکز آن در فاصله مکانی دریاچه آرال تا کاسپین واقع گردیده، فراهم آورد :​
آنومالی دمای هوا در تراز 850 میلی بار تا 24 ساعت ( مدل ECMWF )​
ecmwf_T850a_asia_2.png
این شارش هوای سرد با توجه به گرم بودن بستر دریای کاسپین شرایط بسیار مناسبی را برای تغذیه رطوبتی سامانه مذکور فراهم آورد ،در نتیجه بارشها از امروز و از سمت نواحی دریای کاسپین آغاز گردید که رکورددار بیشترین بارشها تا ساعت 22:00 امشب از آن نوشهر و به میزان 119 میلیمتر بوده است :​
مقادیر بیشترین بارشها تا ساعت 22:00 امشب :​
hzwk29fts1z0m2gp5lxm.jpg
نحوه فعالیت سیستم های شمالی بگونه ایست که دارای سرعت زیادی بوده و هنوز زمانی از غروب خورشید امروز نگذشته بود که بیشتر ایستگاههای استانهای گلستان، خراسان شمالی و شمال خراسان رضوی گزارش اولین بارش پاییزی سال زراعی 93-94 را به ایستگاههای بین المللی هواشناسی مخابره کردند که شهرستان قوچان تا زمان ارسال این پست با 4.2 میلیمتر بیشترین سهم را در بین ایستگاههای رسمی خراسان رضوی از آن خود کرده است.​
بنده بدلیل ماموریت کاری در حال حاضر در شهرستان کلات نادر ساکن هستم که خوشبختانه بارش بارانی نسبتا شدیدی که از اویل امشب در این شهرستان آغاز شده تا زمان مخابره این پست همچنان ادامه دارد.​
بررسی نقشه های فعلی حکایت از گسترش بارشها در بخشهای بیشتری از استان خراسان رضوی دارد ، و به امید خدا اولین بارش پاییزی شهر مشهد تا ساعاتی دیگر آغاز خواهد گردید ;که آپدیت آخرین تصور ماهواره ای هم حکایت از هجوم ابرهای شمالی باران زا به سمت مشهد دارند.​
آخرین تصویر ماهواره ای:​
yjadvpe7iod9tuhldbu2.jpg
مقادیر تجمعی بارش مدل ECMWF تا 144 ساعت آینده​
qctujydz5xktca1dnu3.png

 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بارش اولین باران پاییزی در شهر مشهد را به همه همشهریان خوبم تبریک عرض میکنم.
 

Hossine

New member
بارشها در رامسر از دیشبشروع شده و با شدت از صبح ادامه داتشه و همچنان با شدت میباره خیلی شدیده واقعا میشه گفت ای وضعیت دوباره
از اخراهای مهر دوباره تکرا میشه ولی دامنش گسترده تر میشه .
 
وضعیت
موضوع بسته شده است.
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