تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل اول( مهر- آبان-آذر)

[heaven1]

0.649

 

[heaven1]

 

[heaven1]

 

[heaven1]

 

[heaven1]

آپديت به آپديت وضعيت شمال شرق داره بهتر ميشه!

 

[abtinT]

:گریه::ناراحت: تهران که خبری نیست

 

[heaven1]

:گریه::ناراحت: تهران که خبری نیست

وضعيت تهران حداقل از مشهد بهتره

 

[abtinT]

وضعيت تهران حداقل از مشهد بهتره

بارش مشهد از تهران تا الان بیشتر بوده مهراباد 1.2 میل باریده ولی مشهد فکر کنم 7 ،8 میلی بارش داشته

 

[heaven1]

بارش مشهد از تهران تا الان بیشتر بوده مهراباد 1.2 میل باریده ولی مشهد فکر کنم 7 ،8 میلی بارش داشته

مشهد تا حالا 13.5 ميل بارش داشته ولي هفته بعد تهران کلي بارش خواهد داشت حداقل 15 ميل رو بزار کنار

 

[abtinT]

مشهد تا حالا 13.5 ميل بارش داشته ولي هفته بعد تهران کلي بارش خواهد داشت حداقل 15 ميل رو بزار کنار

امیدوارم که اینطور باشه ولی gfs برای تهران چیز خوبی نزده

 

[samann]

سامان جان SOI بايد منفى تر بشه تا شاهد ريزش هواى پرفشار به شمال كشور باشيم اين شاخص اكنون 3- هست درصورتيكه بايد كمتر از 8 - بشه تا شاهد نفوذ هواى پرفشار به كشور باشيم :گل:

کوروش جان با توجه به شاخصها قبلا هم گفته بودم به نظرمن روزهای اتی شمال شرق در گرما و خشکی میره
و الان هم میگم روزهای بهتری واسه شمال شرق و شمال کشور در پیشه.
در روزهای اتی در شمال کشور رعد و برق رخ میده که نشان از عمق نفوذ جربانات جنوبی و غربی داره

بعضی دوستان بیان می کنن جریانات شمالی ضعیف هستنو فراگیر نیستن اما تمام مردم شمال شرق خاطره خوبی از این جریانات دارن، همونطور که خاطره خوبی از جریانات غربسو ندارن اگر چه به نظر بعضی ها فراگیره/

به هر حال ما هم از بارش مناطق دیگه خوشحالیم و صمیمانه ارزو میکنم علی الخصوص در کلانشهر تهران بارشهای موثر رخ بده

 

[DR WHO]

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[DR WHO]

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An El Niño Double-Dip?

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http://twitter.com/search?q=http://...on_we_may_see_two_el_ni_o_years_in_a_row.html

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[h=2]By Eric Holthaus

Global warming is about to get a boost.

As this year’s El Niño sets in, early signs are pointing toward the possibility of a rare occurrence: back-to-back El Niño years. If it happens, it would virtually guarantee a new global heat record in 2015 and could help usher in a decade or more of accelerated warming.

Think of El Niño as a burst of heat emanating from the tropical Pacific, setting off a cascade of worldwide impacts. This year’s El Niño is already poised to make 2014 the planet’s warmest year on record, according to a recent NOAA estimate.

Last month, global oceans were the warmest they’ve ever been measured, boosted by the cumulative heating linked to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Should current forecasts hold, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expected to confirm the official start of El Niño conditions for 2014-15 in the next month or two.

Early signs indicate a second El Niño may be forming for 2015-16.

Image: NOAA CFSv2​

NOAA’s leading seasonal climate forecast model, the CFSv2, is starting to hint at a renewed uptick in the primary El Niño ocean temperature index during 2015 (shown above). Still, a double-dip El Niño is by no means set in stone. A lot can change in a year, and the CFSv2 model didn’t do particularly well on the current impending El Niño. (To be fair, neither did many others.)

Tony Barnston, the lead climate forecaster for Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society, is equivocal. “It’s a possibility, but it doesn’t happen often, and to call for it would show an inappropriate level of confidence in my opinion. A few other models besides CFS are also hinting at this [possibility of back-to-back El Niños],” said Barnston.

Even if there’s not a second El Niño, a longer-term climate signal is beginning to point in the direction of more frequent bursts of warming over the next several years. Over the next few years, a natural climate oscillation known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is poised to kick into gear. Historical data has linked the “warm” phase of the PDO with a 15- to 30-year temporary surge in global temperatures. A new paper even shows this sort of natural variability could trump long-term human-caused climate warming in localized areas like the Pacific Northwest.

The PDO can be thought of as the atmospheric manifestation of a stretch of frequent El Niño events. If El Niño is the spark that ignites a months-long transfer of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere, the PDO is an indicator of how much fuel is in the gas tank.

The only problem is, it’s pretty much impossible to tell if one of these PDO surges are coming until we’re mired in it. There have been only two complete “cycles” of the PDO since the early 20th century—a warm phase from around 1920-1945, and another one from 1975-1998—both of which coincided with bursts of warming on the global scale. Still, the PDO’s slow-moving nature means researchers haven’t had many chances yet to test predictive theories.

Efforts to explicitly forecast the PDO are, understandably, still pretty messy. The current possible shift to a positive state wasn’t very well forecast at all, for example. Lisa Goddard, director of Columbia University’s IRI, agrees. “We usually can’t really say what phase of the PDO we are in until we have been there for 5-10 years,” she said in an email to Slate.

Recent data shows that transition may already be underway to a new warm phase. Since January of this year, the PDO has been on a tear, coinciding with the so-called “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” of high pressure that’s camped off the California coast. Meteorologists have linked this feature to California’s intensifying drought, which is already the worst in generations. Recent sightings of tropical fish off the coast of Alaska—like ocean sunfish and skipjack tuna—are further evidence of unusual ocean warming.

Natural oscillations like El Niño and the PDO are the noisy variations on the long-term trend of global warming. It’s like trying to track the path of your dog when you’re out for a walk—in the short run, global temperatures may seem chaotic, but the ultimate direction is clear. In this case, that direction is up.

 

[heaven1]

امیدوارم که اینطور باشه ولی gfs برای تهران چیز خوبی نزده

Tehran Airport Forecast

The report was made 01 hour and 45minutes ago, at 17:00 UTC

Forecast valid from 16 at 18 UTC to 17 at 24 UTC

Wind 04 m/s from the West

Visibility 8000 m

Few clouds at a height of 1067 m ,Cumulonimbus. Scattered clouds at a height of 1219m Broken clouds at a height of 2743 m

Probability 40% from 16 at 21 UTC to 17 at 06 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Few clouds at a height of 914 m ,Cumulonimbus. Scattered clouds at a height of 1067m Broken clouds at a height of 2743 m

rain

Temporary from 17 at 10 UTC to 17 at 24 UTC

Visibility 3000 m

Few clouds at a height of 914 m ,Cumulonimbus. Scattered clouds at a height of 1067m Overcast at a height of 3048 m

rain

 

[Amir Mohsen]

سلام
مشهد هستم و فقط فردا رو فرصت دارم .
خبرهابسیار زیاد هستند.
به امید خدا اگه بتونم و زمان فرصت بده ؛ فردا سه پست پی در پی در وب هوای مشهد خواهم داشت تا این لحظه هم که هیچکدوم از این 3 پست رو نگارش نکردم!!!!

 

[Amir Mohsen]

یکی از این پست ها اختصاصی واسه مشهد هست و 2 پست دیگه بررسی شاخص های دور پیوندی و نوسانات اونها در اواخر اکتبر و ماه نوامبر هست

 

[seyyedalireza]

انشالله

 

[heaven1]

 

[DR WHO]

[h=2]“Huge ice growth surprises climate scientists” … “Like one not seen in decades”!by ROBERT on OCTOBER 15, 2014 · 22 COMMENTS


“Looks like they may be hedging their bets a little bit,” says reader. “They say, ‘the recent slowdown in overall solar activity may be playing a major role on the climate.’”

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[h=2]“Freak” Nepal blizzards and avalanches kill at least 29, including hikers, yak herders and guidesby ROBERT on OCTOBER 15, 2014 · 7 COMMENTS


Many more people still believed trapped in snow in the Himalayas in central Nepal,

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[h=2]New study: Our magnetic field could flip in less than a human life time – in less than 100 yearsby ROBERT on OCTOBER 15, 2014 · 9 COMMENTS


Just as I’ve been saying all along!

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[h=2]Winter storm warning for Clyde Riverby ROBERT on OCTOBER 14, 2014 · 5 COMMENTS


Possible snow accumulation of 45 cm (17.7 inches).

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[h=2]Massive October Storm still hitting coast of New South Wales, Australiaby ROBERT on OCTOBER 14, 2014 · 7 COMMENTS


More than 30-thousand people across Sydney and outlying regions without power after ferocious storm.

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[h=2]Climate Change Insanityby ROBERT on OCTOBER 14, 2014 · 10 COMMENTS


Unfortunately, the U.S. is being led by a President who has said that climate change is the greatest challenge facing the Earth. Our Secretary of State repeats this absurdity.

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[h=2]The Lego—Greenpeace Duelby ROBERT on OCTOBER 13, 2014 · 22 COMMENTS


No amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could counter the mini iceage. Crop failure, famine, hardship resulted. CO2 and the weather or the climate on Earth have nothing in common

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[h=2]Global warming hysteria is tearing world apart – Daily Callerby ROBERT on OCTOBER 12, 2014 · 23 COMMENTS


“It’s not capitalism versus statism, nor is it Islam versus the West,” says the Daily Caller.

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[h=2]Worldwide volcanic activity on the riseby ROBERT on OCTOBER 11, 2014 · 36 COMMENTS


Chart shows volcanic activity during last 400 years.

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[h=2]Earthquake activity increasing in Iceland’s Tungafellsjökull volcanoby ROBERT on OCTOBER 11, 2014 · 7 COMMENTS


“Current idea about this activity is that it is responding to tension changes in Bárðarbunga volcano,”

 

[AFSORDE]

هوا ابری و سرد به همراه باد و بارش مقطعی و خفیف......