present weak El Niño will continue until early next year. The SST anomalies extended all the way along the equator will then gradually turn to an El Niño Modoki.
Indian Ocean forecast: The negative IOD in the Indian Ocean is now changing to a basin-wide warm mode and that condition is expected to continue in boreal winter as the Indian Ocean capacitor effect in response to Pacific El Niño/El Niño Modoki.
Regional forecast: In boreal winter, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Europe, Africa, Middle East, central Russia, India, Southeast Asia, South American Continent, Canada, and the Far East including Japan will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, U.K., western/eastern Russia, southern parts of Australia, and central-eastern U.S. will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The seasonal averaged rainfall in Dec.2014-Feb. 2015 suggests that most parts of Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and East Africa will experience a drier-than-normal condition. All those may be somehow related to the course of El Niño. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S, in particular, western U.S., partly because of the warmer-than-normal SST associated with the continuation of the newly identified regional phenomenon “California Niño”.
