Tropical Storm Andrea once 24 hours ago the first Atlantic tropical season named storm and is now slowly tracking toward the East Coast and more specifically Florida. This storm has strengthened since Wednesday and is now a strong tropical storm packed with 60 MPH winds. In this forecast package we present all the necessary forecasting maps ahead of Andreas impact.
Current Statistics:
Position: 27.8N 84.9W 149 statue miles (240 km) to the W (265°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
Minimum Barometric Pressure: 997 MB
Sustained Winds: 50 knots (58-60 MPH)
Forecast Track
For about a week was as much as Andrea took to strengthen into the storm it is today. Since, a better idea of the storms track can be identified thus also the impacts. Andrea’s landfall into Florida looks to continue since the storm is yet Southwest and off shore. The timing of landfall looks to appear late Thursday late or early Friday morning. Most impacts however will be felt ahead of Andrea due to the storms structure producing most impacts East of the center.
Landfall at this time looks to occur between Tallahassee and Gainesville, FL. After Andrea makes landfall it appears the storm will keep an inland track spreading more rain and wind ahead of it. Those who are in direct or just Eastward position of the storm will experience the worse of what the storm has to give. For Florida, an East or West wiggle from Andrea before landfall will not have much of a difference of impacts but for how West or East the storm is as it crawls up the East Coast will be a determining factor to how much rain and winds the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will experience. Model consensus has placed Andrea further Westward once it makes landfall. This a clear watching component into the weekend Northward.
Forecast Rainfall
Andrea has plenty of moisture to feed off of. This storm is being replenished from Gulf and Atlantic air masses and we are thinking rainfall for a large portion of the East Coast is the large culprit with this storm. Where the storm centers we believe is where also the heaviest rainfall will occur and even enhancing in heavier banding. This could result in places experiencing 3.00” to even as much as 6.00” or more of rain. Outside of the center is where amounts will decrease. As mentioned, Florida and the Southeast are a destined right now for the most definite heavy rainfall but far over the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast the storms track is much more closely watched. If the storm keeps at it’s forecast track then expect heaviest rainfall to occur over the I-95 corridor and Eastward. However a last minute Westward track would bring the rain over the I-81 corridor and I-95. This is the means of falling rain and heavy flooding rain. We ask that those further North pay attention to the track after it’s landfall for weekend impacts.
Forecast Winds
The highest wind field will be centered around the system and further from it, lighter. At this time given banding the Panhandle of Florida and Western Florida 200-300 miles of the center will experience tropical storm force winds of over 35-60 MPH. Elsewhere, lighter winds of 20-35 MPH. As we know a cyclone has a counter clockwise air motion which means with the system West of Florida much of the winds will be ahead and from the South-Southeast. This will be the battering time right before landfall that Florida experiences highest winds. Once Andrea moves over Florida orographic lift will slow winds hence our color cut offs but after the storm moves past Florida winds will pick back up over the ocean now impacting the coastal Carolinas. Again inland, lighter winds expected.
Forecast Coastal Impacts
Speaking of coastal impacts, some storm surge can be expected from Andrea especially in the direct path of the storm. This is why we have decided to highlight the Panhandle and Western Florida for some of the highest coastal impacts as well as the coastal Carolinas. This will create very rough surf, and large swells. It is recommended all stay out of the water until the storm passes and waters calm.
DON’T FORGET! Forecast Tornado Risk
With the recent devastation over the Midwest from tornadoes, one cannot forget tornadoes are also very possible in tropical cyclones due to a circulating motion in winds. Highlighted we find in the red where the highest tornado potential is likely. This where the conditions and wind motion is strongest and also correlating well where the best streaming winds into the storm are defined from. Outside of the red we find still the potential for tornadoes but medium to low. However as Andrea tracks inland Friday the tornado threat will increase up the Eastern Seaboard throughout Georgia and the Carolinas.
Remembering The Forecast
The GeoEnvironmental Atmosphere team issued it’s tropical forecast on June, 1 2013. Already one of the first storms has been named, tally that 1 to many more to come.