Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فردا:
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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
http://nigs.ir/journal/Doc/2.2.5.pdf
طبق مقاله فوق NAO مثبت باعث سردتر از نرمال شدن خاورميانه مى شود
سال ٨٦ هم همراهى NAO مثبت با لانينا قوى با IOD مثبت باعث سرماى بسيار شديد شد
چون در NAO مثبت پرفشار ازور و سيبرى باهم ادغام ميشن و ورتكس قطبى مياد پايين و اگر AO منفى باشه بلاكينگ شكل مى گيره
طبق مقاله فوق NAO مثبت باعث سردتر از نرمال شدن خاورميانه مى شود
سال ٨٦ هم همراهى NAO مثبت با لانينا قوى با IOD مثبت باعث سرماى بسيار شديد شد
چون در NAO مثبت پرفشار ازور و سيبرى باهم ادغام ميشن و ورتكس قطبى مياد پايين و اگر AO منفى باشه بلاكينگ شكل مى گيره
سال 86 میخواد دوباره تکرار بشه امیر امسال اواخر دی؟:112::123::123::120:
امیر محسن جان یک سوالی ازتون داشتم:
اینکه وضعیت دمایی انسو به چی وابسته هست؟ مثلا اون چیزی که من به ذهنم میرسه اینه که اگه در شرق اقیانوس آرام هوای سردی قرار بگیره و یا هوا مثلا ابری یا بارانی باشه باعث میشه دمای آبهای این ناحیه از اقیانوس سردتر بشه و شرایط لانینا تقویت بشه و یا اگه برعکس هوای گرم روی شرق اقیانوس آرام قرار بگیره یا هوای آفتابی در اونجا حاکم باشه دمای آبهای اون مناطق افزایش پیدا میکنه و درنتیجه النینو تقویت میشه. آیا این حدس من درسته و یا توهمی بیش نیست؟! :خجالت2:
والله عليرضا جان به نظر مياد ژانويه سردتر از نرماله در پيش داشته باشيم دى ١٣٧٤ شرايط پيوند از دورش با دى ١٣٨٦ يكى نبوده اما هر دو بسيار سرد بودن
شديدا منتظر پيش بينى هواشناسى كرمانشاه و پيش بينى بعدى ژاپن ام:خجالت2:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خواهش میکنم
والا به فعالیتهای خورشیدی که خیلی وابسته است.
الان میرم یک سرچ بزنم ببینم دلایل دیگه هم داره یا نه
جان بمیرم ,من تره قربان:خنده1:
آقا به نویسنده هواشناسی کرمانشاه بگو بارش همه جا رو فراتر از نرمال در نطر بگیره!!:خنده2::گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خواهش میکنم
به لینک زیر یک سر بزنید مطالب جالبی داره:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HAPPENS
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
تاثیر النینو بر اقلیم دنیا:
تاثیر لانینا بر اقلیم دنیا:
تاثیر لانینا بر اقلیم دنیا:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Effects of El Niño on the world weather
All 3-month seasons
El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The effects depend strongly on the location and the season. We have studied the HadCRUT2 analyses of sea surface temperature and 2-meter temperature over land with at least 35 years of data, and investigated how these observations correlate with the Niño3.4 index that describes the strength of El Niño and La Niña.
Temperature
The colours encode the strength of the relationship with El Niño and La Niña. Red areas are almost always warmer during El Niña and colder during La Niña. In the dark orange areas El Niño determines about half the variability, in the liht orange areas one quarter. In the dark green areas it is often colder during El Niño or warmer during La Niña. In North America the effect is non-linear.
All 3-month seasons
El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The effects depend strongly on the location and the season. We have studied the HadCRUT2 analyses of sea surface temperature and 2-meter temperature over land with at least 35 years of data, and investigated how these observations correlate with the Niño3.4 index that describes the strength of El Niño and La Niña.
Temperature
The colours encode the strength of the relationship with El Niño and La Niña. Red areas are almost always warmer during El Niña and colder during La Niña. In the dark orange areas El Niño determines about half the variability, in the liht orange areas one quarter. In the dark green areas it is often colder during El Niño or warmer during La Niña. In North America the effect is non-linear.
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
انسو باز مثبت تر شد و بارش ما بیشتر تر...
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[SIZE=+1]El Niño and California
[SIZE=-1]Last update: 3 June 2010[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1] Link to latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP): 8 April 2010 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Current Forecasts[/SIZE] The current forecast from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography is forecasting El Niño conditions to return to neutral in the summer of 2010. Below is the forecast sea surface temperature anomaly for the tropical Pacific covering the months of June through August 2010.
[SIZE=+1]El Niño and California[/SIZE] California does not always see an increase in precipitation during El Niño years.
Klaus Wolter (NOAA CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder CO) has developed a Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) based on six observed variables over the tropical Pacific: sea-level pressure, zonal wind, meridional wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and total cloudiness. The time series of this index from 1950 to now is shown below. Red indicates times of El Niño events. Click here to see the MEI web page that Klaus has put together (note this web page has many El Niño related links).
[/SIZE][SIZE=-1] Link to latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP): 8 April 2010 [/SIZE]
An El Niño advisory continues from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). A moderate El Niño continued throughout the equatorial Pacific during March 2010. Deep tropical convection remained enhanced across central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific. Southern California saw very little precipitation during March.
[SIZE=+1]Current Observations[/SIZE] Warm equatorial waters can be seen in an animation from the Climate Prediction Center of the weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from January 20 to April 7, 2010:
[SIZE=-1] Use "Reload/Refresh" button to restart animation[/SIZE]
Global sea surface temperature anomalies for the week of May 23 to May 29, 2010, are shown below. This image is from the Earth System Research Laboratory.
[SIZE=+1]Current Observations[/SIZE] Warm equatorial waters can be seen in an animation from the Climate Prediction Center of the weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from January 20 to April 7, 2010:
Global sea surface temperature anomalies for the week of May 23 to May 29, 2010, are shown below. This image is from the Earth System Research Laboratory.
[SIZE=+1]Current Forecasts[/SIZE] The current forecast from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography is forecasting El Niño conditions to return to neutral in the summer of 2010. Below is the forecast sea surface temperature anomaly for the tropical Pacific covering the months of June through August 2010.
Find more forecast images and information about this forecast on the Experimental El Niño Forecast web page:
Other forecasts can be found at:
Other forecasts can be found at:
The graphics below show January sea surface temperature anomalies for previous strong El Niños and the 2009/2010 El Niño.
The graphics below show January 700mb height anomalies for previous strong El Niños and the 2009/2010 El Niño.
[SIZE=+1]El Niño and California[/SIZE] California does not always see an increase in precipitation during El Niño years.
Klaus Wolter (NOAA CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder CO) has developed a Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) based on six observed variables over the tropical Pacific: sea-level pressure, zonal wind, meridional wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and total cloudiness. The time series of this index from 1950 to now is shown below. Red indicates times of El Niño events. Click here to see the MEI web page that Klaus has put together (note this web page has many El Niño related links).
In order to compare the current El Niño watch with previous events, Klaus had made a figure showing the MEI for 7 of the strongest transition events since 1950, with the current event in black (see black dashed '09+' line).
While an El Niño doesn't gaurantee a wet winter in California, the graphs below for San Diego (left) and an 8-station California index (8 stations in Northern Sierra used by the California Department of Water Resources, right), show that more often than not, precipitation is above normal during an El Niño:
From the Climate Prediction Center, we have an analysis of the El Niño impact by state. These impacts are derived from looking at what happened during moderate to strong El Niños of the last 100 years (1895-1997). In the image below, California rankings are shown for precipitation (top; wet [green] to dry [red]) and temperature (bottom; cold [blue] to warm [red]) by climate division. These rankings are for 3 three-month intervals over the winter-spring season: November to January, January to March and March to May
Other atmospheric patterns associated with El Niño are shown in composites made using tools available from the Climate Diagnostics Center. The ten El Niño years chosen for the composites below are: 1966, 1973, 1978, 1983, 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1998. These composites are of data from the NCEP Reanalysis project (which covers the period 1948-present).
700mb height anomalies (in meters)
Surface temperature anomalies (in degrees C)
Surface wind anomalies (in meters/second)
Correlation of November to March surface precipitation with SST in the Niño3 region
From the Climate Prediction Center, we have an analysis of the El Niño impact by state. These impacts are derived from looking at what happened during moderate to strong El Niños of the last 100 years (1895-1997). In the image below, California rankings are shown for precipitation (top; wet [green] to dry [red]) and temperature (bottom; cold [blue] to warm [red]) by climate division. These rankings are for 3 three-month intervals over the winter-spring season: November to January, January to March and March to May
| | November-January | January-March | March-May |
| Precipitation |
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| | November-January | January-March | March-May |
| Temperature |
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700mb height anomalies (in meters)
Surface temperature anomalies (in degrees C)
Surface wind anomalies (in meters/second)
Correlation of November to March surface precipitation with SST in the Niño3 region
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
- وضعیت