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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
قوچان در آستانه زمستان 92
من که سنی ندارم حتی کهنسالان قوچان هم بخاطر ندارن که در آستانه زمستان حتی قله کوه ها هم برف نداشته باشه1
خدا بزرگه محسن جان
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
In U.S., Winters Warming but Precipitation More Nuanced
By Brian Kahn
Follow @blkahn
The Winter Solstice arrives on Saturday, marking a headlong plunge into winter. Looking at the past 42 years of data shows that almost the entirety of the Lower 48 has warmed over the season. Precipitation trends show more regional differences, though.
Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions have caused temperatures to increase by 1.5°F since 1895 in the U.S. Much of that increase has come since 1970, and different seasons are warming faster than others. Winters, which begin in the meteorological sense on December 1 and run through February, have warmed 0.61°F percade in the contiguous U.S. from 1970-2012. That's faster than the rate of 0.435°F of warming per decade experienced over the same period.
Winter warming isn’t uniform, though. California and Nevada have only warmed at a rate of 0.17°F per decade over that time — the slowest winter warming region in the country — and the Southeast has gone up just 0.29°F per decade.
A map showing winter temperature trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012.
Click image to enlarge.
However, the winter warming trends for both the Upper Midwest and the Northeast have been higher than the national average. The Upper Midwest is warming the fastest of any region at 1.12°F per decade and the Northeast comes in second at 0.78°F per decade. The Ohio Valley rounds out the top three, warming at 0.66°F per decade.
Of the 344 climate divisions, which are used to divide the country into similar climate zones similar to counties, only two have seen a cooling trend over that period.
Precipitation trends paint a more nuanced picture of change in the U.S. The biggest changes in winter precipitation trends since 1970 come from opposite corners of the country — the Southeast and the Northwest. The Southeast has dried at a rate of 0.182" per decade, with Georgia and South Carolina showing the starkest drying trend. The Northwest is down 0.136" per decade, with the largest decreases along the immediate coast and the crest of the Cascade Mountains. Lighter snowpack in the Cascades is bad news for skiers, as well as the region’s hydropower generators, which account for 40 percent of the nation’s hydropower generation.
The Northeast and the Northern Rockies round out the list of regions experiencing a decrease in winter precipitation, though the trends there are minimal compared to other areas.
A map showing winter precipitation trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012.
Click image to enlarge.
Meanwhile, a large chunk of land from California to Ohio has seen an uptick in winter precipitation since 1970. The largest regional increases are across the West at 0.081" per decade and the Ohio Valley at 0.067" per decade. Within those areas, northern California has had the biggest local increase, though Californians might have a hard time believing it this year as 2013 is on target to be one of the state’s driest years on record.
Though the Southwest is getting drier annually, it bucks that trend in the winter. Since 1970, the Southwest has experienced a rise in winter precipitation at 0.037" per decade.
This year's meteorological winter is already off to a big start for precipitation, and mostly in the form of snow. As of December 15, 53 percent of the country had snow on the ground. That’s the largest snowpack for the U.S. in a decade.
A cold snap after Thanksgiving also set the U.S. on course to set more record lows than record highs for the first time in 20 years. Globally, a record-hot November has the planet on track for one of its top five warmest years on record, though.
For winter as a whole, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting increased odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the southern half of the country. The Upper Midwest is more likely to be cooler than normal while the Northern Rockies have improved odds to see more snow than usual. Much of the country has an "equal chances" forecast, which means there's not strong signal favoring warm or cold conditions.
- Published: December 19th, 2013
By Brian Kahn Follow @blkahn
The Winter Solstice arrives on Saturday, marking a headlong plunge into winter. Looking at the past 42 years of data shows that almost the entirety of the Lower 48 has warmed over the season. Precipitation trends show more regional differences, though.
Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions have caused temperatures to increase by 1.5°F since 1895 in the U.S. Much of that increase has come since 1970, and different seasons are warming faster than others. Winters, which begin in the meteorological sense on December 1 and run through February, have warmed 0.61°F percade in the contiguous U.S. from 1970-2012. That's faster than the rate of 0.435°F of warming per decade experienced over the same period.
Winter warming isn’t uniform, though. California and Nevada have only warmed at a rate of 0.17°F per decade over that time — the slowest winter warming region in the country — and the Southeast has gone up just 0.29°F per decade.
A map showing winter temperature trends in the U.S. from 1970-2012.Click image to enlarge.
However, the winter warming trends for both the Upper Midwest and the Northeast have been higher than the national average. The Upper Midwest is warming the fastest of any region at 1.12°F per decade and the Northeast comes in second at 0.78°F per decade. The Ohio Valley rounds out the top three, warming at 0.66°F per decade.
Of the 344 climate divisions, which are used to divide the country into similar climate zones similar to counties, only two have seen a cooling trend over that period.
Precipitation trends paint a more nuanced picture of change in the U.S. The biggest changes in winter precipitation trends since 1970 come from opposite corners of the country — the Southeast and the Northwest. The Southeast has dried at a rate of 0.182" per decade, with Georgia and South Carolina showing the starkest drying trend. The Northwest is down 0.136" per decade, with the largest decreases along the immediate coast and the crest of the Cascade Mountains. Lighter snowpack in the Cascades is bad news for skiers, as well as the region’s hydropower generators, which account for 40 percent of the nation’s hydropower generation.
The Northeast and the Northern Rockies round out the list of regions experiencing a decrease in winter precipitation, though the trends there are minimal compared to other areas.
Click image to enlarge.
Meanwhile, a large chunk of land from California to Ohio has seen an uptick in winter precipitation since 1970. The largest regional increases are across the West at 0.081" per decade and the Ohio Valley at 0.067" per decade. Within those areas, northern California has had the biggest local increase, though Californians might have a hard time believing it this year as 2013 is on target to be one of the state’s driest years on record.
Though the Southwest is getting drier annually, it bucks that trend in the winter. Since 1970, the Southwest has experienced a rise in winter precipitation at 0.037" per decade.
This year's meteorological winter is already off to a big start for precipitation, and mostly in the form of snow. As of December 15, 53 percent of the country had snow on the ground. That’s the largest snowpack for the U.S. in a decade.
A cold snap after Thanksgiving also set the U.S. on course to set more record lows than record highs for the first time in 20 years. Globally, a record-hot November has the planet on track for one of its top five warmest years on record, though.
For winter as a whole, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting increased odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the southern half of the country. The Upper Midwest is more likely to be cooler than normal while the Northern Rockies have improved odds to see more snow than usual. Much of the country has an "equal chances" forecast, which means there's not strong signal favoring warm or cold conditions.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Toasty November Vaults 2013 Into Top 5 Warmest Years
By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
Last month was the warmest November since record-keeping began 134 years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported Tuesday. The latest data, combined with more recently reported by NASA, showed a record global average surface temperature for November, particularly in Eurasia, where Russia experienced its warmest November in history.
According to NOAA, the global average surface temperature for November was 1.4°F above the long-term average for the month, and much of Russia, northwest Kazakhstan, south India, southern Madagascar, parts of the central and south Indian Ocean, and areas of the Pacific Ocean were record warm. That surpassed the previous record-holder of November 2004 by 0.05°F, and is the 6th-highest monthly departure from average of any month on record, according to NOAA.
Global average surface temperatures departures from average for November 2013, compared to the 30-year average from 1981-2010.
Credit: NOAA.
Russia had its warmest November since records began there in 1891, with some parts of the country, including Siberia and the Arctic islands in the Kara Sea, seeing temperatures that were more than 14°F above the typical monthly average.
In contrast, not a single region of the globe was record cold for the month, NOAA said. The only areas that were cooler than average were northern Australia, parts of North America, southwest Greenland, and parts of the Southern Ocean near South America.
According to NOAA, November's warmth catapulted the year-to-date to the 4th warmest year on record, up from the 7th warmest, which is where it stood as of the end of October. That puts 2013 on track to be the warmest year on record without an El Niño event, depending on where December temperatures rank.
El Niño events feature warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and tend to alter weather patterns and ocean currents in ways that provide an added boost — on top of manmade global warming and other climate cycles — to global average surface temperatures. NOAA said that while milder-than-average global ocean conditions contributed to November's record warm, the month was the 19th straight without an El Niño or La Niña event present in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Each of the top three years in NOAA’s dataset — 2010, 2005, and 1998, respectively — were El Niño years or exhibited the lingering effects of an El Niño.
The additional heat injected into the climate system from El Niño events accentuates the impacts of long-term global warming from manmade emissions of greenhouse gases and other causes. Although most climate outlooks show the continued absence of El Niño through the spring of 2014, should El Niño conditions develop at some point in the new year, it will increase the likelihood that 2014 will set a new global temperature record.
El Niño and La Niña events can help swing global average temperatures upward or downward with respect to their long-term average for a year or two. Typically, El Niño years are warmer than La Niña years. NOTE: This graphic uses data from NOAA, NASA GISS, and the U.K. Met Office.
Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., said caution is needed when comparing El Niño and non-El Niño years.
"There is no universally accepted definition of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and much less an 'El Niño year,'" Arndt said in an email.
Arndt said that from an El Niño perspective, as well as looking at how monthly global average temperatures have played out this year, 2013 more closely resembles 2005 than either 2010 or 1998.
"If you think of the annual temperature like a 12-lap race (one lap per month), 1998 and 2010 got off to big early (warm!) leads and 'hung on' in the later laps," he said. "2005, and 2013 so far, started a bit more modestly and gained ground in the middle and late laps."
NOAA also announced on Tuesday that the September-to-November period was the second warmest such period on record, behind only 2005. Australia had its highest average spring temperatures in its 104-year history of recordkeeping. And following its hottest month on record (January 2013), its hottest summer on record, and its 3rd-hottest winter, it is likely that 2013 will be Australia's warmest year on record.
November also brought the string of consecutive above-average months on the planet to 345, with last month being the 37th straight November with above-average temperatures compared to the 20th century average. That means that anyone younger than 28 has never experienced a colder-than-average month, globally speaking. The last below-average November global temperature was in November 1976, and the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985, NOAA said.
- Published: December 17th, 2013
By Andrew Freedman Follow @afreedma
Last month was the warmest November since record-keeping began 134 years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported Tuesday. The latest data, combined with more recently reported by NASA, showed a record global average surface temperature for November, particularly in Eurasia, where Russia experienced its warmest November in history.
According to NOAA, the global average surface temperature for November was 1.4°F above the long-term average for the month, and much of Russia, northwest Kazakhstan, south India, southern Madagascar, parts of the central and south Indian Ocean, and areas of the Pacific Ocean were record warm. That surpassed the previous record-holder of November 2004 by 0.05°F, and is the 6th-highest monthly departure from average of any month on record, according to NOAA.
Credit: NOAA.
Russia had its warmest November since records began there in 1891, with some parts of the country, including Siberia and the Arctic islands in the Kara Sea, seeing temperatures that were more than 14°F above the typical monthly average.
In contrast, not a single region of the globe was record cold for the month, NOAA said. The only areas that were cooler than average were northern Australia, parts of North America, southwest Greenland, and parts of the Southern Ocean near South America.
According to NOAA, November's warmth catapulted the year-to-date to the 4th warmest year on record, up from the 7th warmest, which is where it stood as of the end of October. That puts 2013 on track to be the warmest year on record without an El Niño event, depending on where December temperatures rank.
El Niño events feature warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and tend to alter weather patterns and ocean currents in ways that provide an added boost — on top of manmade global warming and other climate cycles — to global average surface temperatures. NOAA said that while milder-than-average global ocean conditions contributed to November's record warm, the month was the 19th straight without an El Niño or La Niña event present in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Each of the top three years in NOAA’s dataset — 2010, 2005, and 1998, respectively — were El Niño years or exhibited the lingering effects of an El Niño.
The additional heat injected into the climate system from El Niño events accentuates the impacts of long-term global warming from manmade emissions of greenhouse gases and other causes. Although most climate outlooks show the continued absence of El Niño through the spring of 2014, should El Niño conditions develop at some point in the new year, it will increase the likelihood that 2014 will set a new global temperature record.
El Niño and La Niña events can help swing global average temperatures upward or downward with respect to their long-term average for a year or two. Typically, El Niño years are warmer than La Niña years. NOTE: This graphic uses data from NOAA, NASA GISS, and the U.K. Met Office.
Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., said caution is needed when comparing El Niño and non-El Niño years.
"There is no universally accepted definition of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and much less an 'El Niño year,'" Arndt said in an email.
Arndt said that from an El Niño perspective, as well as looking at how monthly global average temperatures have played out this year, 2013 more closely resembles 2005 than either 2010 or 1998.
"If you think of the annual temperature like a 12-lap race (one lap per month), 1998 and 2010 got off to big early (warm!) leads and 'hung on' in the later laps," he said. "2005, and 2013 so far, started a bit more modestly and gained ground in the middle and late laps."
NOAA also announced on Tuesday that the September-to-November period was the second warmest such period on record, behind only 2005. Australia had its highest average spring temperatures in its 104-year history of recordkeeping. And following its hottest month on record (January 2013), its hottest summer on record, and its 3rd-hottest winter, it is likely that 2013 will be Australia's warmest year on record.
November also brought the string of consecutive above-average months on the planet to 345, with last month being the 37th straight November with above-average temperatures compared to the 20th century average. That means that anyone younger than 28 has never experienced a colder-than-average month, globally speaking. The last below-average November global temperature was in November 1976, and the last below-average global temperature for any month was February 1985, NOAA said.
15ساعت است که از آغازبارش بی وقفه برف درشاهین دژ میگذره وشدت آن هم نسبتا خوبه،اما شاید تعجب کنید که بگم اجتمالامیزان بارش به1میلیمتر هم نرسیده باشه،این برف بسیار بسیارخشک است وباحرکت آدم برف های سطح زمین کاملا جابه جا میشن وبا جرکت خودروها برف کل خیابون این ور واون ورمیره.اماحداقلش اینه کل شهروسفیدپوش کرده
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
امشب شانس اصفهان برای بارش برف خیلی زیاده.
آرزو میکنم که محقق بشه:گل:
آرزو میکنم که محقق بشه:گل:
اصغرى :
اميدواريم زمانى برسه كه بتونيم پيش بينى دقيق نقطه اى بكنيم چون خيلى ها بما خرده ميگيرن كه چرا همه حالات هوا را ميگيد
امروز سيستم موجب بارش برف براى غرب كشور شد عجب برفى هزار ماشالله ( خنده )
غالبا ابرها از نوع نيمبواستراتوس بودن
چيزى كه براى ما جالب بود بارش برف فراتر از انتظار در قم بود
اين بارشها ناشى از موج كج بود كه اين سيستم هاى كج باعث بارشهاى رگبارى ميشن
از يكشنبه هواى سرد اروپايى وارد كشور ميشه
فردا چهارمحال كهكيوله اصفهان و تهران بارش برف دارند
خليج پارس طوفانى خواهد بود آبهاش
معتقديم سرماى هفته بعد بر آلودگى و بارندگى ميچربه ..
اميدواريم زمانى برسه كه بتونيم پيش بينى دقيق نقطه اى بكنيم چون خيلى ها بما خرده ميگيرن كه چرا همه حالات هوا را ميگيد
امروز سيستم موجب بارش برف براى غرب كشور شد عجب برفى هزار ماشالله ( خنده )
غالبا ابرها از نوع نيمبواستراتوس بودن
چيزى كه براى ما جالب بود بارش برف فراتر از انتظار در قم بود
اين بارشها ناشى از موج كج بود كه اين سيستم هاى كج باعث بارشهاى رگبارى ميشن
از يكشنبه هواى سرد اروپايى وارد كشور ميشه
فردا چهارمحال كهكيوله اصفهان و تهران بارش برف دارند
خليج پارس طوفانى خواهد بود آبهاش
معتقديم سرماى هفته بعد بر آلودگى و بارندگى ميچربه ..
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
واقعا امانت رو در انتقال کلام تمام و کمال رعایت کردی! یه واو و حتی خنده و غمزه و کرشمه اصغری رو جا ننداختی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
وضعیت فعلی بارش بر اساس آخرین تصویر مولتی سنسور بارش
وضعیت فعلی بارش بر اساس آخرین تصویر مولتی سنسور بارش
همیشه بارش سمنان رو دور زده این بار هم دور زده تبریک
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
27 دسامبر و ظهور سایکلونی قدرتمند بر روی مدیترانه- همزمان آغاز بارشها در سواحل غربی دریای کاسپین از موج فرعی شمالی( ناوه شمال شرقی)
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Long term forecast forMashhad, Razavi Khorasan (Iran) Updated at 22:34. Next update around 23:30.
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Forecast as
| Friday20 December12–18 | Saturday21 December12–18 | Sunday22 December9–15 | Monday23 December9–15 | Tuesday24 December9–15 | Wednesday25 December9–15 | Thursday26 December9–15 | Friday27 December9–15 | Saturday28 December9–15 | Sunday29 December9–15 |
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| 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 0 mm | 5.2 mm | 2.3 mm |
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