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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Updated 02/10/2014 @ 13:00 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Monday. Solar activity is currently at low levels with minor C-Class flares being detected. Sunspots 1967 and 1968 are now both located behind the west limb and out of direct Earth view. Of all the current visible numbered regions, sunspot 1974 showed the most growth during the past 24 hours. The active region will remain a threat for at least C-Class solar flares. All other visible regions, including 1976, remain stable for now. The source of an eruption behind the southeast limb yesterday is now beginning to rotate into view. We will get a better look at it during the next 24 hours.
Solar Update
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Monday. Solar activity is currently at low levels with minor C-Class flares being detected. Sunspots 1967 and 1968 are now both located behind the west limb and out of direct Earth view. Of all the current visible numbered regions, sunspot 1974 showed the most growth during the past 24 hours. The active region will remain a threat for at least C-Class solar flares. All other visible regions, including 1976, remain stable for now. The source of an eruption behind the southeast limb yesterday is now beginning to rotate into view. We will get a better look at it during the next 24 hours.
الان تو فاز چند هست؟
ظاهرن فاز 5
مشهد
Detailed
long term forecast
| Date | Time | Forecast | Temp. | Precipitation | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday12/02/2014 | 00:00–06:00 |
| -1° | 0 mm |
|
| 06:00–12:00 |
| -2° | 0 mm |
| |
| 12:00–18:00 |
| 5° | 0 mm |
| |
| 18:00–00:00 |
| 1° | 0 mm |
| |
| Thursday13/02/2014 | 00:00–06:00 |
| -3° | 0 mm |
|
| 06:00–12:00 |
| -4° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 1° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 5° | 0 mm |
| |
| Friday14/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| -1° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| -3° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 1° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 6° | 0 mm |
| |
| Saturday15/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| -2° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| -4° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 4° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 10° | 0 mm |
| |
| Sunday16/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 2° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 1° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 10° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 17° | 0 mm |
| |
| Monday17/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 7° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 7° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 9° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 9° | 2.1 mm |
| |
| Tuesday18/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 2° | 0.6 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 1° | 0.3 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 4° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 9° | 0 mm |
| |
| Wednesday19/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 2° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 0° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 8° | 0 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 12° | 0 mm |
| |
| Thursday20/02/2014 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 4° | 0 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 1° | 0 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 10° | 0 mm |
|
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
:شاد2::شاد2:
خداروشکر کورسوی امیدی از نروژ داره چشمک میزنه!!سیستم دوشنبه طبق آبدیت جدید واسه بجنورد 7/5 میل برف خواهد داشت..خدایا شکرت..:شاد2::گل:
خداروشکر کورسوی امیدی از نروژ داره چشمک میزنه!!سیستم دوشنبه طبق آبدیت جدید واسه بجنورد 7/5 میل برف خواهد داشت..خدایا شکرت..:شاد2::گل:
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
همزمان جی اف اس هم در آبدیت ساعت 9 واسه روز دوشنبه در هر دو تراز 700 و 850 واسه شمالشرق رطوبت خوبی رو در نظر گرفته..باید دید ک در آبدیت جدیدش سر موضع قبلی خودش میمونه و روند مثبتی رو طی خواهد کرد و یا اینکه....
نیروی دریایی هم به همین شکله..آیا میشه به سیستم هفته ی آینده امیدوار شد؟؟؟؟خدایا..من دارم امیدوارم میشم..ناامیدم نکن..:خنده1:
نیروی دریایی هم به همین شکله..آیا میشه به سیستم هفته ی آینده امیدوار شد؟؟؟؟خدایا..من دارم امیدوارم میشم..ناامیدم نکن..:خنده1:
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
به به ، خــــــــــــوش خبر باشی هادی جــــــــان
خدا رو شکـــــــــــــــــــــر
انشاءالله قوی تر هم میشه... :گل:
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
خدایا این محمد ما رو نا امید نکن دیگه :خجالت2: جون ما :گل:
سلام محمد جان
امیدوارم برای همه شمال شرق نشینان بارش های خوبی حاصل بشه.
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
سلام امیرحسین جان،ارادت..
:خنده1:،الهی آمین..امیر حسین جان تبریک میگم{عنوان کاربری ویژه رو...:گل:}
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
خیلی ممنون محمد جان :احترام:
خوشم میاد که دقتت بیسته 20 :گل::گل::گل::گل::گل::گل::گل:
خب خدا رو شکر نقشه ها هم که امیدوار کننده شدن :خنده1:
دوستان عزیز
متاسفانه در چند روز گذشته فرد یا افرادی معلوم الحال به روش های مختلف سعی داشتن آرامش و همچنین جو علمی این فروم را به هم بزنند از شما عزیزان همراه همیشگی خواستارم به هیچ وجه سعی در پاسخ به اقدامات این افراد نباشید و بلافاصله عملکردشون را گزارش بدین مطمئن باشید مدیران انجمن در سریعترین زمان ممکن اقدام عملی انجام خواهند داد!
از همکاری شما پیشاپیش سپاسگذارم
متاسفانه در چند روز گذشته فرد یا افرادی معلوم الحال به روش های مختلف سعی داشتن آرامش و همچنین جو علمی این فروم را به هم بزنند از شما عزیزان همراه همیشگی خواستارم به هیچ وجه سعی در پاسخ به اقدامات این افراد نباشید و بلافاصله عملکردشون را گزارش بدین مطمئن باشید مدیران انجمن در سریعترین زمان ممکن اقدام عملی انجام خواهند داد!
از همکاری شما پیشاپیش سپاسگذارم
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Study Sounds ‘El Niño Alarm’ For Late This Year
By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
A new study shows that there is at least a 76 percent likelihood that an El Niño event will occur later this year, potentially reshaping global weather patterns for a year or more and raising the odds that 2015 will set a record for the warmest year since instrument records began in the late 19th century.
The study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on research put forward in 2013 that first proposed a new long-range El Niño prediction method.
Image of the Pacific Ocean showing sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S. and French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage, indicative of strong El Niño conditions.
Credit: NASA
Although they occur in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño events can reverberate around the globe, wreaking havoc with typical weather patterns. El Niños increase the likelihood for California to be pummeled by Pacific storm systems, for example, while leaving eastern Australia at greater risk of drought. Because they are characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and they add heat to the atmosphere, El Niño events also tend to boost global average temperatures.
By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.
Today, scientists can only reliably predict the onset and severity of El Niño events by about 6 months ahead of time. And this lead time may actually decrease due to Congressional budget cuts for ocean monitoring buoys that provide crucial information for El Niño forecasting.
The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.
The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.
“Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.”
While the the study claims to be more definitive than other forecasts, projections derived from ocean- and statistically-based models from the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University already show increasing odds, to the tune of twice the average risk, of an El Niño starting in the late summer or early fall as well.
Global average surface temperatures, showing El Niño years in red. Credit: Climate Central using WMO data.
Some leading El Niño forecasters were skeptical of the new study, in part because it puts forward a technique based only on statistics, with no improved understanding of the underlying physics of the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. Bunde told Climate Central that he and his colleagues have yet to discover the physical connections between the rest of the Pacific and the El Niño region, but that they are still investigating.
"This is classic bravado — they make a forecast: if it is wrong, everyone forgets; if they are right, they get big points. In the meantime, people cite their papers," said Lisa Goddard, director of IRI and a senior scientist there. "There is no physical explanation of what is going on."
Bunde said the temperature index method is more reliable than traditional forecast techniques.
“When we give an alarm, the alarm is correct in 3 of 4 cases and false in 1,” Bunde said. “We can forecast El Niño about 1 year ahead. The conventional forecasts have a considerably shorter warning time of about 6 months, with a lower hit rate than our method. The disadvantage of our method is that we cannot predict the strength of the El Niño event. But we hope to overcome this shortage of our algorithm in the near future.”
Bunde said the extra 6 months of warning time could have significant economic benefits, since it covers an entire “agricultural cycle,” thereby giving farmers more time to adapt to wetter or drier than average conditions.
In the study, the scientists said they are aware of “the reputational risks” involved with making an El Niño prediction so far in advance. “Should our alarm turn out to be correct, however, this would be a major step toward better forecasting,” the study said.
However, Anthony Barnston, chief forecaster at IRI, told Climate Central that the new method is not likely to stand the test of time. "This scheme shows a good performance now, but after another 6 years (and 2 new El Niños) it may not look nearly as good, and they will have to change something to restore skill," he said.
- Published: February 10th, 2014 , Last Updated: February 7th, 2014
By Andrew Freedman Follow @afreedma
A new study shows that there is at least a 76 percent likelihood that an El Niño event will occur later this year, potentially reshaping global weather patterns for a year or more and raising the odds that 2015 will set a record for the warmest year since instrument records began in the late 19th century.
The study, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on research put forward in 2013 that first proposed a new long-range El Niño prediction method.
Credit: NASA
Although they occur in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, the effects of El Niño events can reverberate around the globe, wreaking havoc with typical weather patterns. El Niños increase the likelihood for California to be pummeled by Pacific storm systems, for example, while leaving eastern Australia at greater risk of drought. Because they are characterized by higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, and they add heat to the atmosphere, El Niño events also tend to boost global average temperatures.
By acting in concert with manmade greenhouse gases, which are also warming the planet, calendar years featuring a strong El Niño event, such as 1998, can more easily set all-time high temperature records.
Today, scientists can only reliably predict the onset and severity of El Niño events by about 6 months ahead of time. And this lead time may actually decrease due to Congressional budget cuts for ocean monitoring buoys that provide crucial information for El Niño forecasting.
The new study, by an international group of researchers, takes a starkly different approach to El Niño forecasting compared to conventional techniques. While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.
| RELATED | Climate Change Could Double Likelihood of Super El Ninos Global Warming-El Nino Link Stronger but Still Not Proven Zeroing In on IPCC’s Sea Level Rise & Warming ‘Hiatus’ |
|---|
“Our approach uses another route,” said study coauthor Armin Bunde, a scientist at the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Giessen, Germany, in an email conversation. “We do not consider the water temperature in a specific area of the Pacific Ocean, but the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific.”
While the the study claims to be more definitive than other forecasts, projections derived from ocean- and statistically-based models from the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University already show increasing odds, to the tune of twice the average risk, of an El Niño starting in the late summer or early fall as well.
Global average surface temperatures, showing El Niño years in red. Credit: Climate Central using WMO data.
Some leading El Niño forecasters were skeptical of the new study, in part because it puts forward a technique based only on statistics, with no improved understanding of the underlying physics of the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. Bunde told Climate Central that he and his colleagues have yet to discover the physical connections between the rest of the Pacific and the El Niño region, but that they are still investigating.
"This is classic bravado — they make a forecast: if it is wrong, everyone forgets; if they are right, they get big points. In the meantime, people cite their papers," said Lisa Goddard, director of IRI and a senior scientist there. "There is no physical explanation of what is going on."
Bunde said the temperature index method is more reliable than traditional forecast techniques.
“When we give an alarm, the alarm is correct in 3 of 4 cases and false in 1,” Bunde said. “We can forecast El Niño about 1 year ahead. The conventional forecasts have a considerably shorter warning time of about 6 months, with a lower hit rate than our method. The disadvantage of our method is that we cannot predict the strength of the El Niño event. But we hope to overcome this shortage of our algorithm in the near future.”
Bunde said the extra 6 months of warning time could have significant economic benefits, since it covers an entire “agricultural cycle,” thereby giving farmers more time to adapt to wetter or drier than average conditions.
In the study, the scientists said they are aware of “the reputational risks” involved with making an El Niño prediction so far in advance. “Should our alarm turn out to be correct, however, this would be a major step toward better forecasting,” the study said.
However, Anthony Barnston, chief forecaster at IRI, told Climate Central that the new method is not likely to stand the test of time. "This scheme shows a good performance now, but after another 6 years (and 2 new El Niños) it may not look nearly as good, and they will have to change something to restore skill," he said.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
White Roofs Could Offset Summer Warming by 2100
By Brian Kahn
Follow @blkahn
Painting building roofs white could cool some major cities baking in the intensifying heat of a changing climate. How much benefits white roofs could bring depend on the region of the country they’re installed in and the season, new research shows.
Keeping cities cool in the summer is becoming increasingly important as more people move to urban areas, which currently house over 80 percent of the country’s population. In the U.S., cities currently cover a total of 106,386 square miles. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency expects the country’s urbanized area to double by 2100.
Painting white roofs in New York would cool the city but could reduce summer precipitation according to new research
Credit: Community Environment Center/Flickr
Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to force average temperatures to increase between 3°F and 9°F by the end of the century, depending on how much those emissions are cut back over that period.
These increases in temperature take on added importance in cities. There, the urban heat island effect, warming caused by paved and dark surfaces, can make temperatures as much as 10°F hotter compared to greener surrounding areas. Higher summer temperatures lead to increased energy costs and a greater occurrence of heat waves, harming human health.
- Published: February 10th, 2014
By Brian Kahn Follow @blkahn
Painting building roofs white could cool some major cities baking in the intensifying heat of a changing climate. How much benefits white roofs could bring depend on the region of the country they’re installed in and the season, new research shows.
Keeping cities cool in the summer is becoming increasingly important as more people move to urban areas, which currently house over 80 percent of the country’s population. In the U.S., cities currently cover a total of 106,386 square miles. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency expects the country’s urbanized area to double by 2100.
Credit: Community Environment Center/Flickr
Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to force average temperatures to increase between 3°F and 9°F by the end of the century, depending on how much those emissions are cut back over that period.
These increases in temperature take on added importance in cities. There, the urban heat island effect, warming caused by paved and dark surfaces, can make temperatures as much as 10°F hotter compared to greener surrounding areas. Higher summer temperatures lead to increased energy costs and a greater occurrence of heat waves, harming human health.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
ارتفاع تراز 500 میلی بار روز 16 فوریه 2014
- وضعیت