gfs vs ecm: Let’s put these models to the test. A great example of how accurate on inaccurate these two models were when forecasting Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. Granted the fact that this storm was a combination of a nor’easter and a hurricane, these models did pretty well. At the end, both models just about nailed the landfall of sandy and what the affects this storm would have on the east coast. But… there is one catch. While both models did forecast sandy correctly, the EURO forecasted this storm almost a week in advanced while the GFS took its grand old time and took about 3 days later to finally “agree” with the EURO. (
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/ ) But it does not stop there… Just nine days after “Superstorm Sandy” clobbers the east coast, yet another storm forms and it’s a nor’easter! But this time, instead of rain and wind, we get very heavy snow and along with some wind. Now this is where things become interesting. Both models did depict where and when this nor’easter was going to set up. But what comes next could be one of the worst model forecasts in New England’s history! Not one and I mean one of ANY of the several computer models which include both the GFS and the EURO forecasted a FOOT of snow for the New Haven area! Not only did this area get a lot of snow, this area had the highest snowfall totals of the entire storm! Some readings were as high as 13.5 inches in Clintonville CT! The forecast only called for a light coating if that. So it’s safe to say that weather is and will never be an exact science. (
http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121108a_storm_i_would_like_to_soon_forget_ ) So after hearing all about how weather forecasts are made and the main two forecasting models used in weather forecasting in the U.S., it could be concluded that there is a lot of conflicting evidence that goes into deciding which model is more accurate. The bottom line, there is NO “declared winner”. There are so many variables that go into forecasting major weather events such as snow storms, hurricanes and nor’easters. These models are among many other models that forecasting these weather events. Besides that, these are the most reliable models out of them all. But it is too hard to decide which model is better due to the fact that weather is just so unpredictable and can change within seconds. Its weather and it’s a science of no other kind!Let’s put these models to the test. A great example of how accurate on inaccurate these two models were when forecasting Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy. Granted the fact that this storm was a combination of a nor’easter and a hurricane, these models did pretty well. At the end, both models just about nailed the landfall of sandy and what the affects this storm would have on the east coast. But… there is one catch. While both models did forecast sandy correctly, the EURO forecasted this storm almost a week in advanced while the GFS took its grand old time and took about 3 days later to finally “agree” with the EURO. (
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2012/10/30/sandy-hurricane-models/1668867/ ) But it does not stop there… Just nine days after “Superstorm Sandy” clobbers the east coast, yet another storm forms and it’s a nor’easter! But this time, instead of rain and wind, we get very heavy snow and along with some wind. Now this is where things become interesting. Both models did depict where and when this nor’easter was going to set up. But what comes next could be one of the worst model forecasts in New England’s history! Not one and I mean one of ANY of the several computer models which include both the GFS and the EURO forecasted a FOOT of snow for the New Haven area! Not only did this area get a lot of snow, this area had the highest snowfall totals of the entire storm! Some readings were as high as 13.5 inches in Clintonville CT! The forecast only called for a light coating if that. So it’s safe to say that weather is and will never be an exact science. (
http://www.wxedge.com/articles/20121108a_storm_i_would_like_to_soon_forget_ ) So after hearing all about how weather forecasts are made and the main two forecasting models used in weather forecasting in the U.S., it could be concluded that there is a lot of conflicting evidence that goes into deciding which model is more accurate. The bottom line, there is NO “declared winner”. There are so many variables that go into forecasting major weather events such as snow storms, hurricanes and nor’easters. These models are among many other models that forecasting these weather events. Besides that, these are the most reliable models out of them all. But it is too hard to decide which model is better due to the fact that weather is just so unpredictable and can change within seconds. Its weather and it’s a science of no other kind!
