Ahmad77777
New member
ممنون که خبر خوش دادین اینشالله همیشه خوش خبر باشید.
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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل اول( مهر- آبان-آذر)
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بارش تجمعی 45 روز آینده
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
El Nino may be flaking out on its winter date with us again, but for skiers and snowboarders it'd be akin to having better plans lined up anyway.
The latest word from NOAA is that the odds of El Nino forming this winter are down to 58 percent -- a far cry from the 80 percent chances we had in the early summer.
Forecasts are still indeed for El Nino conditions to develop this winter (better hurry up!) but now we're leaning toward a borderline event that may just barely qualify.
What's the deal? Much like the last time we were expecting El Nino (way back in… 2012!) the atmosphere never really reacted to the warming waters, which when also fizzled.
This time around, it sounds like one factor is a much broader swath of the ocean is a bit warmer than normal -- remember the "blob" of warm waters near our area of the Pacific Ocean that's been keeping us warmer than normal for quite a while this year? - and thus we're not getting a distinct temperature gradient in the Central Pacific to trigger the winds which starts the chain reaction of affecting weather patterns that is the hallmark of El Nino (much like run-on sentences are a hallmark of my blog.)
But there appear to be other factors in play too. NOAA's Emily Becker explains in a blog post that scientists are learning not every El Nino-La Nina cycle is the same and that there are variations on a decade-level time scale to where the cycles behave differently. This decade in particular seems to favor weaker events than previous decades and thus we may need to adjust our thinking of how the El Nino cycle behaves on a long term scale and how we predict it.
But bottom line: If El Nino was an early 2 touchdown favorite to win the battle for Pacific Ocean supremacy this winter, which then dropped to about a 9 point line later this summer when the ocean temperatures weren't responding well, it's dropped even further (3-4 point favorite?) with perhaps a narrow victory now foreseen.
And a weaker El Nino means there is better hope for our mountain snowpack. El Nino events typically mean drier and warmer late autumns and winters but the weaker the El Nino signal, the less influence it has on our winter.
Perhaps skiers don't have to take up winter time hiking instead!
The latest word from NOAA is that the odds of El Nino forming this winter are down to 58 percent -- a far cry from the 80 percent chances we had in the early summer.
Forecasts are still indeed for El Nino conditions to develop this winter (better hurry up!) but now we're leaning toward a borderline event that may just barely qualify.
What's the deal? Much like the last time we were expecting El Nino (way back in… 2012!) the atmosphere never really reacted to the warming waters, which when also fizzled.
This time around, it sounds like one factor is a much broader swath of the ocean is a bit warmer than normal -- remember the "blob" of warm waters near our area of the Pacific Ocean that's been keeping us warmer than normal for quite a while this year? - and thus we're not getting a distinct temperature gradient in the Central Pacific to trigger the winds which starts the chain reaction of affecting weather patterns that is the hallmark of El Nino (much like run-on sentences are a hallmark of my blog.)
But there appear to be other factors in play too. NOAA's Emily Becker explains in a blog post that scientists are learning not every El Nino-La Nina cycle is the same and that there are variations on a decade-level time scale to where the cycles behave differently. This decade in particular seems to favor weaker events than previous decades and thus we may need to adjust our thinking of how the El Nino cycle behaves on a long term scale and how we predict it.
But bottom line: If El Nino was an early 2 touchdown favorite to win the battle for Pacific Ocean supremacy this winter, which then dropped to about a 9 point line later this summer when the ocean temperatures weren't responding well, it's dropped even further (3-4 point favorite?) with perhaps a narrow victory now foreseen.
And a weaker El Nino means there is better hope for our mountain snowpack. El Nino events typically mean drier and warmer late autumns and winters but the weaker the El Nino signal, the less influence it has on our winter.
Perhaps skiers don't have to take up winter time hiking instead!
http://www.kermanshahmet.ir/myfiles/admins/admin/file/seasonal forecast/seasonal forecast 76.pdf
هواشناسى كرمانشاه : وزن بارشها در آذر و دى است .
چنانچه النينو حاكم باشد احتمال دارد نيمه اول زمستان زياد سرد نشود .
هواشناسى كرمانشاه : وزن بارشها در آذر و دى است .
چنانچه النينو حاكم باشد احتمال دارد نيمه اول زمستان زياد سرد نشود .
استاد اميرمحسن عزيز لطفا اين لينك بسيار مهم را مطالعه كنيد
Mike Masco's 2014-2015 Winter Outlook: Very Cold & Snowy Times Ahead - ABC2News.com
Mike Masco's 2014-2015 Winter Outlook: Very Cold & Snowy Times Ahead - ABC2News.com
T. Máxima en 24 horas. 09/11/2014 a 12:00 UTC
(30 de 8154 estaciones)
1 Goias (Brazil) 56.4 °C
2 Abuja (Nigeria) 45.0 °C
3 Jervois (Australia) 43.8 °C
4 Urandangi Aerodrome (Australia) 42.3 °C
5 Skukuza (South Africa) 41.7 °C
6 Ballera Gas Field (Australia) 41.5 °C
7 Wyndham Aero (Australia) 41.4 °C
8 Territory Grape Farm Ti Tree (Australia) 41.3 °C
9 The Monument Airport (Australia) 41.2 °C
10 Bradshaw (Australia) 41.1 °C
(30 de 8154 estaciones)
1 Goias (Brazil) 56.4 °C
2 Abuja (Nigeria) 45.0 °C
3 Jervois (Australia) 43.8 °C
4 Urandangi Aerodrome (Australia) 42.3 °C
5 Skukuza (South Africa) 41.7 °C
6 Ballera Gas Field (Australia) 41.5 °C
7 Wyndham Aero (Australia) 41.4 °C
8 Territory Grape Farm Ti Tree (Australia) 41.3 °C
9 The Monument Airport (Australia) 41.2 °C
10 Bradshaw (Australia) 41.1 °C
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بسیار عالی امیر کوروش عزیز
در این مطلب هر چند که بیشتر به وضعیت جوی آمریکا پرداخته شده بود ولی از چند اصل کلی پیروی میکرد:
1-وقوع و تداوم فاز مثبت pdo
2-وقوع فاز مثبت خفیف انسو با تمایل به النینوی مودوکی و تضعیف بادهای تجاری بر روی اقیانوس آرام
3-وقوع فاز منفی نوسان قطبی به دلیل افزایش پوشش برف منطقه اورآسیا
4-تشدید فعالیت های خورشید در دوره گذر از چرخه 24 سرد شدن استراتوسفر و گرم شدن تراپوسفر بدلیل بازتابش تششعات خورشیدی.
5-وقوع فاز منفی مولفه اتمسفری Qbo که منجر به تضعیف ورتکس قطبی میشه که این موضوع منجر به نفوذ ورتکس قطبی به سمت جنوب و یا حتی شکل گیری الگوی split flow را در پی خواهد داشت.
تمام موارد بالا در این تحلیل گفته شده که این نتیجه گرفته بشه که مناطقی همچون بالتیمور و یا graet lakes امسال زمستانی سرد و با فراوانی و تعدد طوفان برف در پیش خواهند داشت .
در ضمن تحلیگر مطلب زمستان امسال رو هم مشابه با 2013-2014 دونسته و هم شبیه به 2009-2010
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
هواشناسی کانادا
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
چشم انداز بارش وضعیت جوی کشور تا 30 روز آینده
تاریخ : دوشنبه نوزدهم آبان 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
نظر بدهید
تاریخ : دوشنبه نوزدهم آبان 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
نظر بدهید
انیمیشن بارش تجمعی کشور در 30 روز پیشرو ( 18 آبان لغایت 18 آذر)
انیمیشن آنومالی دمای هوا در سطح زمین طی 30 روز آینده
انیمیشن آنومالی دمای هوا در سطح زمین طی 30 روز آینده
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
گردنه تیوان در همین لحظه( تصویر اتو آپدیت میباشد):
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
امام زاده هاشم- استان تهران
- وضعیت