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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل اول( مهر- آبان-آذر)

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DR WHO

کاربر ويژه
Extreme El Nino weather stunted growth of Peruvian children By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent8 hours ago










OSLO, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Children in Peru on the front line of a severe cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean in 1997-98 suffered stunted growth, showing how extreme weather can cause lasting damage to health, a study said on Tuesday.
The study of 2,095 children born between 1991 and 2001 in villages around Tumbes in northern Peru found that those born during or just after the El Nino weather system, which caused floods, damaged crops and triggered illnesses such as malaria and diarrhoea, grew less than normal.
"The El Nino had a big effect by reducing food availability," William Checkley, one of the authors at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, told Reuters. Children aged under three, a crucial period for growth, were hardest hit.
Overall, children in areas apparently hardest hit by floods were 4 cm (1.6 inches) shorter than normal by the age of 10, he said.
Stunting has been linked with decreased mental and physical capacity in later life.
"If adverse weather events affect a significant portion of young children of a country, then they have the potential to adversely affect the future of a community as a whole," said the study by scientists in the United States, Peru and Britain, published in the journal Climate Change Responses.
A U.N. report this month said downpours linked with El Nino events, which typically happen every three to seven years and can disrupt weather worldwide, may intensify because of climate change.
Officials from almost 200 governments will meet in Lima from Dec. 1-12 for U.N. talks about ways to slow global warming. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said last week that the tropical Pacific was showing renewed signs of El Nino conditions.
Another report on Tuesday suggested that investments in nutrition for children were among the best ways to safeguard health in developing nations, yielding benefits of $45 for every $1 spent because of higher expected earnings.
Avoiding stunting "should be a top development priority", wrote the authors, Susan Horton of the University of Waterloo in Canada and John Hoddinott of Cornell University in New York state.
"It turns out that what looks like a good idea morally is also really good economically," said Bjorn Lomborg, head of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, which commissioned the study.
 

DR WHO

کاربر ويژه
Another Side Effect of Climate Change and El Niño Events? Shorter Kids.
[h=3]Kids in coastal Peru showed signs of stunted growth and muscle loss for years after El Niño hit in ’97, a new study finds.—By Jenna McLaughlin
| Mon Nov. 24, 2014 8:00 PM EST





peru.jpg
Peruvians battle flooding in Lima during the 1997-1998 El Niño weather event. Tati Quinones/AP
The weather pattern known as El Niño could be stunting kids' growth—even years after the extreme storms abate, a new study finds. Researchers at Johns Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Public Health, led by assistant professor of medicine and international health William Checkley, say they have conducted the first study on the long-term health consequences of El Niño weather systems. According to the paper published today in BioMed Central, children born around the time of the severe 1997-'98 El Niño living in coastal Peru, one of the regions hardest hit by the weather pattern, are significantly shorter for their age than children born before El Niño hit.
Children in coastal Peru born around the time of El Niño are significantly shorter for their age than children born before the weather pattern hit.
El Niño weather patterns occur in the equatorial Pacific region, often off the northern coasts of Peru and Ecuador. During El Niño patterns, the region's warm water, which is usually skimmed away by the wind and pushed towards Asia and Australia, doesn't circulate like it's meant to. Instead, it builds up and heats the air above it, creating clouds. The changes in water temperatures and cloud formations lead to higher chances of torrential rains, inhospitably warm fish habitats, and intense flooding in the Americas. This tends to happen every three to seven years, and begins slowly in the summer, peaking in the winter.
Recent findings suggest that climate change will not necessarily disrupt this cycle, but might increase the intensity of the weather events when they do occur. Checkley noted that climate change was not a focus in the study, but confirmed that its impact may worsen future El Niño events.
Which is bad news for children living in coastal areas heavily affected by El Niño weather events. That's because this extreme weather can make food hard to come by, and increase the likelihood of infection. "Lack of food, food insecurity and increased infections are all likely drivers to a decreased growth in children," Checkley told me. The study zeroed in on children living in rural villages in coastal Peru, where food insecurity and poverty are at much higher levels than in places like California, where El Niño weather patterns can also settle.
The team measured the height, weight, and fat, and muscle of a random sample of 2,095 children born between 1991 and 2001 in Tumbes, Peru—a city on the northwestern coast. A decade after the extreme '97 El Niño, in November and December of 2008 and 2009, they found that, on average, the children born during and shortly after El Niño were shorter and had less lean mass, or body weight minus fat, than children born before the event.
The study mentions that in years following the extreme weather patterns, some children were able to gradually recover losses in height, but that children in homes that were heavily flooded were not able to catch up. "Even three years after the initial disaster, it still affected children's nutritional status," reads a press release about the study.
Epidemiologists consider stature a "surrogate measure" of chronic malnutrition and disease for certain age groups and genders; stunted growth can be an early predictor of delayed motor skills, cognitive impairment, and higher risk pregnancies later in life. "Just as rings act as indicators of natural disaster experienced by a tree throughout its life, exposure to severe adverse weather events in utero or in early life can leave a long-lasting mark on growth and development in young children," the study reads.
"Given El Niño's cyclical nature this phenomenon may continue to negatively impact future generations," said one researcher.
According to Madeleine Thompson, a scientist specializing in climate and health at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, it is "highly likely" that these results are "indicative of a large scale impact of an El Niño related disaster." She linked these results to a 2004 study of an El Niño related malaria epidemic in areas of Tanzania, where there was a "very significant impact" on infants' birth weights as a result of the disease—an immediate health impact of El Niño.
Of course, the results are still too preliminary to indicate that El Niño alone stunted children's growth. But the authors note that in interviews with focus groups, "community members did not cite other events occurring during the same period as El Niño that had such a destructive impact on their lives." Checkley told me that his research squares with past studies of the public health consequences of El Niño events, which include increased risk of infection and social and emotional stress. Flooding and higher temperatures often lead to increased risk of contracting infectious diarrheal and respiratory diseases, especially in poor, overcrowded communities. These illnesses could prevent children from developing properly.
The researchers emphasize the need for further study, especially in light of climate change and the possibility of more and more intense El Niño cycles. The researchers believe that these studies can better help aid workers develop prevention strategies and target aid and response during these types of events. "Given El Niño's cyclical nature this phenomenon may continue to negatively impact future generations," said Checkley.




 

abtinT

کاربر ويژه
امیر محسن نظرت درباره سیستم هفته بعد چیه نیروی دریایی فقط سرما زده بارش خوبی برای تهران نزده . حتی مشهد هم بارش خوبی نخواهد داشت.
 

برفی

کاربر ويژه
بارش اصفهان فقط4.4میلیمتربود امسال هم خشکسالی ادامه داره تا اول دیماه هم که هوای صاف والوده درپیش داریم
 

arashz

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
حوصله ام سر روفت از این هوا! ابرها فقط میان و میرن! یک وست بعضی اوقات قطراتی هم به زمین میرسه و تمام!
 

AFSORDE

کاربر ويژه
فکر کنم بارش اینجا از مرز 10 میلیمتر گذشته باشه....

بارش تا ساعت 15:30، 7.2 میلیمتر بوده که البته همچنان هم ادامه دارد :گل:
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بارش زیبای باران پاییزی رو به دوستان خوبم در اصفهان تبریک میگم.
همیشه شاد باشید.
قبلا عرض کرده بودم خدمت تون.
 
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