Return of Polar Vortex likely to sting N.J. with intense cold for Valentine's Day weekend
The GFS model shows exceedingly cold air pushing into the northeast later this weekend. (WeatherBell)
By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
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on February 09, 2015 at 5:11 PM, updated February 09, 2015 at 5:42 PM
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You may want to make sure you have someone warm to cuddle up to this Valentine's Day weekend.
It appears nearly certain that New Jersey is in store for its coldest weather of the winter this weekend, as a train of Arctic air is expected to repeatedly pound the northeast with brutal cold, likely pushing temperatures below zero for a significant swath of the state at times.
"It's hard to see how we'd miss out on this. The signal's been consistent since last week," said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service's Mount Holly office. "We're in for a very cold stretch coming up."
Intense cold is expected to begin to filter into the region Thursday into Friday morning behind a coastal storm that may bring the Garden State some snow, though details remain unclear on precipitation amounts.
"It's just going to pour into the northeast into the Mid-Atlantic," said Ken Elliott, a meteorologist at Weather Works in Hackettstown. "If winds remain calm, there's no telling how cold it could get."
Temperatures on Friday morning are likely to be in the single digits across much of the state, and many parts of the state could fall below zero by Saturday morning. High temperatures, meanwhile are not expected to rise past the teens on Friday and with a stiff wind, will feel much colder.
"The wind chills will be the more ominous sounding," Szatkowski said. "I think it's certainly possible to talk about wind chills between 10 and 20 degrees below zero."
While temperatures will rebound slightly Saturday, another shot of cold is expected late in the weekend, which could again drop temperatures below zero. According to WeatherWorks, it's not out of the question that parts of the state fall 10 degrees below zero if winds remain calm.
Though the term has caused much consternation among the forecasting community for its misuse and overuse in recent months, the coming cold pattern would be the first this year to come courtesy of the polar vortex, a large, permanent area of low pressure that generally sits atop the Arctic Ocean and Siberia.
The polar vortex typically holds the coldest air in the northern hemisphere, which during the winter can be dislodged and pour into the lower latitudes. According to forecast guidance, that's exactly what is expected to happen as a virtual expressway is expected to develop, sending Arctic air streaming toward the United States in the coming weeks.
"When you can say some of the anomalously coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is being shifted down in this direction, you have to start talking about the vortex, from my perspective," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University.
Rapidly developing coastal storms (one on Thursday and another late in the weekend) are expected to pull the core of that cold into the northeast behind them as they pull away from the region.
What's worse, long range forecasts show no signs of the pattern abating through late February.
The end result is likely to be several days over the coming two weeks where New Jersey's temperatures are running 15 to 30 degrees below normal.
Snow too?
While temperature profiles are much easier to predict with accuracy, precipitation is not.
Szatkowski said two potential storms are being monitored for Thursday and Sunday, each of which has the potential to bring wintry precipitation to New Jersey. Details will likely be refined in the coming days and he urged residents to monitor the forecast as the week progresses.
Szatkowski joked that New Jersey is missing the key ingredient for guaranteed snow this winter.
"It appears the best predictor of snow this year is to have your area named Boston," he said.
The GFS model shows exceedingly cold air pushing into the northeast later this weekend. (WeatherBell)
By Stephen Stirling | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on February 09, 2015 at 5:11 PM, updated February 09, 2015 at 5:42 PM
View/Post Comments
You may want to make sure you have someone warm to cuddle up to this Valentine's Day weekend.
It appears nearly certain that New Jersey is in store for its coldest weather of the winter this weekend, as a train of Arctic air is expected to repeatedly pound the northeast with brutal cold, likely pushing temperatures below zero for a significant swath of the state at times.
"It's hard to see how we'd miss out on this. The signal's been consistent since last week," said Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service's Mount Holly office. "We're in for a very cold stretch coming up."
Intense cold is expected to begin to filter into the region Thursday into Friday morning behind a coastal storm that may bring the Garden State some snow, though details remain unclear on precipitation amounts.
"It's just going to pour into the northeast into the Mid-Atlantic," said Ken Elliott, a meteorologist at Weather Works in Hackettstown. "If winds remain calm, there's no telling how cold it could get."
Temperatures on Friday morning are likely to be in the single digits across much of the state, and many parts of the state could fall below zero by Saturday morning. High temperatures, meanwhile are not expected to rise past the teens on Friday and with a stiff wind, will feel much colder.
"The wind chills will be the more ominous sounding," Szatkowski said. "I think it's certainly possible to talk about wind chills between 10 and 20 degrees below zero."
While temperatures will rebound slightly Saturday, another shot of cold is expected late in the weekend, which could again drop temperatures below zero. According to WeatherWorks, it's not out of the question that parts of the state fall 10 degrees below zero if winds remain calm.
Though the term has caused much consternation among the forecasting community for its misuse and overuse in recent months, the coming cold pattern would be the first this year to come courtesy of the polar vortex, a large, permanent area of low pressure that generally sits atop the Arctic Ocean and Siberia.
The polar vortex typically holds the coldest air in the northern hemisphere, which during the winter can be dislodged and pour into the lower latitudes. According to forecast guidance, that's exactly what is expected to happen as a virtual expressway is expected to develop, sending Arctic air streaming toward the United States in the coming weeks.
"When you can say some of the anomalously coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is being shifted down in this direction, you have to start talking about the vortex, from my perspective," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University.
Rapidly developing coastal storms (one on Thursday and another late in the weekend) are expected to pull the core of that cold into the northeast behind them as they pull away from the region.
What's worse, long range forecasts show no signs of the pattern abating through late February.
The end result is likely to be several days over the coming two weeks where New Jersey's temperatures are running 15 to 30 degrees below normal.
Snow too?
While temperature profiles are much easier to predict with accuracy, precipitation is not.
Szatkowski said two potential storms are being monitored for Thursday and Sunday, each of which has the potential to bring wintry precipitation to New Jersey. Details will likely be refined in the coming days and he urged residents to monitor the forecast as the week progresses.
Szatkowski joked that New Jersey is missing the key ingredient for guaranteed snow this winter.
"It appears the best predictor of snow this year is to have your area named Boston," he said.
