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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل دوم( دي- بهمن-اسفند)
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
نمودار متئوگرام پیش بینی وضعیت جوی فرودگاه مشهد بر اساس مدل ECMWF
تاریخ : پنجشنبه سی ام بهمن 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
یک نظر
تاریخ : پنجشنبه سی ام بهمن 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
یک نظر
نمودار متئوگرام پیش بینی وضعیت جوی فرودگاه مشهد بر اساس مدل اروپایی پیش بینی میان مدت ECMWF تا 10 روز آینده
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نه ابتين جان در مورد مشهد هم همينه كه گفتي و درسته
من ديگه بحث بيشتر نميكنم در اين مورد ، چون احساس ميكنم حالت لجبازي به خودش گرفته.
دقيقا نظر كارشناسي خوبي دادي رفتن نينو3.4 بين 0 و 0.5- بدترين حالت و بعد از اون بين 0 و 0.5 هست.
اتفاقا در اپديتها از ديشب احتمال برف بيشتر شده.
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
مچکرم حاج محسن...
دیشب به طرز عجیبی اینجا خوب بارید و همچنان من به این سیستم و جولانش در غرب و جنوب غرب امیدوارتر شدم...حدود 6 م.م بارش داشتیم و آپدیت های امشب و فردا هم تقویت و حدود 30 م.م شده
شرق خوزستان و چهارمحال عجیب داره میباره...هر ابری میاد دو رقمی میزنن...امکانش هست کوهرنگ نرمال اسفندشم بگیره...
latest weekly value of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index to 8 February is −0.4 °C. Climate models surveyed in the model outlooks indicate a continuation of a neutral phase of the IOD in the coming months.
The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
the Date Line, though tending weaker than average in some parts of the far western tropical Pacific during the 5 days ending 15 February (see map). Westerly wind anomalies in parts of the western tropical Pacific sometimes occur as a normal part of the breakdown of an El Niño. Over the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Pacific trade winds were near average.
During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April. During this time of year, establishment of negative or positive IOD patterns is largely inhibited by the development and position of the monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere.
the Date Line, though tending weaker than average in some parts of the far western tropical Pacific during the 5 days ending 15 February (see map). Westerly wind anomalies in parts of the western tropical Pacific sometimes occur as a normal part of the breakdown of an El Niño. Over the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Pacific trade winds were near average.
During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
آخرین ویرایش:
| February 19, 2015 ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that an “El Niño Modoki”condition prevails in the tropical Pacific. As per the model predictions the warmer than normal SST anomalies are expected to continue in the central Pacific through the boreal summer. Indian Ocean forecast: A basin-wide warming will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean in response to the tropical Pacific warm condition at least until the boreal spring. The model predictions suggest the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event in boreal summer and fall. However, its uncertainty remains high as a large spread is seen in the prediction plumes. Regional forecast: In this boreal spring, as a seasonally averaged view, most parts of Africa, Northern Russia, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Canada will experience a warmer-than-normal condition. On the other hand, Europe, Southern Russia, U.S., and the Far East (including Japan) will experience a colder-than-normal condition. The seasonally averaged rainfall forecast in this boreal spring shows that most parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, and Northern Brazil will experience a drier-than-normal condition. This may be partly related to a persistence of the tropical Pacific warm condition like El Niño Modoki. A wetter-than-normal condition is expected to continue in U.S., particularly the western U.S., through the boreal spring partly due to a warmer-than-normal SST associated with a persistence of the “California Niño” and associated ocean-atmosphere interactions and dynamics along the western coasts of North America. |
Europe spring forecast: Dry start in UK; storms target France to Germany
10 more breaking global eTN alerts at this time
Zambia: Surge in French tourist arrivals in 2014
02/18/15 7:12 pm
Zambia witnessed a surge in French tourist arrivals in 2014 by 27.37 percent, First Secretary for Tourism at the Zambian Embassy in France Percy Ngwira has said.
read more
Feb 18, 2015
2015 Europe spring forecast: Dry start in UK; storms target France to Germany
while winter has spared much of Europe from extreme cold, many are wondering what spring has in store for them.
Following a winter that featured very active weather across southern Europe, a stormy start to spring is forecast which will lead to an elevated threat for flooding.
Spring will start off dry across the United Kingdom, but a change in the overall weather patterns looms from late spring into summer.
The changing weather pattern could also cause problems for agriculture in the Iberian Peninsula and across Eastern Europe.
Wet Spring to Cause High Flood Risk for Italy and Balkan Peninsula
The greatest concern for flooding stretches from southern and central Italy into the Balkans, reaching as far north as Hungary and Slovakia and as far south as Greece and western Turkey.
The combination of a wet winter which delivered large amounts of snow in the higher terrain and a continued stormy pattern will lead to this elevated risk for flooding. As temperatures slowly moderate, the snow pack will melt.
"The combination of melting snow in the Dinaric Alps and Carpathian Mountains will lead to river flooding," according to Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
As temperatures rise late in the spring and early summer, the threat will shift from flooding to localized severe weather from Romania into Bulgaria. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado from late April into May.
Severe Weather to Threaten France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany
While Romania and Bulgaria may get some localized severe weather, a more widespread severe weather threat will exist from the interior of Spain northeast through the interior of Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could also target Switzerland.
The setup for this severe weather will be based upon milder air building across northwestern Europe as high pressure builds over and just west of the region.
This mild air will be a key ingredient for thunderstorms as storm systems rushing into the region bring shots of colder air with them. The Atlantic air masses that will be over northwestern Europe for much of spring will contain ample moisture, a key ingredient for these strong to severe thunderstorms.
Roys added, "The greatest threats will be for damaging winds and hail; however, the strongest storm systems will be capable of bringing the threat for several tornadoes to areas from France into Germany, especially late in the season."
Dry Start to Spring for UK, Ireland; Seasonable Temperatures Throughout Spring
The spring will be full of variability in areas from Ireland and the United Kingdom into northern France, Belgium and Netherlands.
The season will start with generally below-normal rainfall as most of the moisture with storm systems pass to the south. However, as the season progresses, high pressure will build in the eastern Atlantic Ocean resulting in storms tracking farther north and through the United Kingdom and Ireland during mid- to late spring.
While the spring will turn increasingly wet from April into May, temperatures will remain near normal as a whole across the region. No extended periods of below-normal temperatures are expected as cold air remains entrenched over eastern Europe.
"A dry start to the spring will also provide favorable conditions for agriculture, including barley and sugarbeets, which are typically planted in March," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Early Rains Replaced by Dry and Warmth in Portugal, Spain and Southern France
The favored storm track in early spring will feature storms passing through southern Europe, bringing rain to areas from Spain and southern France through Italy and into the Balkans.
Unlike southeastern Europe, a pattern shift is expected in western Europe as high pressure builds over the eastern Atlantic Ocean by mid-season forcing storms farther north.
According to Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert, "A large ridge of high pressure building over the northeast Atlantic Ocean will result in a change to much drier weather across Portugal and Spain early in the season."
This large area of high pressure will foster above-normal warmth and very little rainfall across Portugal and Spain from late March into April and May. As a result, the remaining rains through March will be vital to agriculture as reservoir levels will be tested by the extended dry weather that will begin by the middle of the season and likely linger through the summer months.
Two crops that could be impacted by the turn to dry weather include olives in Spain and grapes in southern France.
Following one of the worst years for olive oil production in 2014, another lackluster olive crop could lead to further increases in prices, as the Mediterranean region supplies the majority of the global olive crop.
A poor grape crop in France could have impacts on wine; however, the extent of this will be determined by irrigation in the region. A wet winter and early spring could allow water supplies to support the crops in Spain despite a turn to drier weather.
Cold Lingers in East; Scandinavia Enjoys Mild and Drier Weather
A ridge of high pressure will dominate Scandinavia this spring resulting in a drier weather pattern along with seasonably mild air.
A turn to drier weather will be beneficial for water levels which will likely be high following a wet winter combined with spring snowmelt.
Meanwhile, the same area of high pressure will result in continuing presses of cold air southward across eastern Europe. These colder-than-normal air masses will set the stage for early spring snow from the higher terrain of Romania into Ukraine and Belarus.
The overall cold weather pattern will lead to a lasting snowpack in this region that would likely delay the planting of agriculture during the early spring. A positive side to the snowpack is that it would provide ample moisture for crops moving into the summer months.
10 more breaking global eTN alerts at this time
Zambia: Surge in French tourist arrivals in 2014
02/18/15 7:12 pm
Zambia witnessed a surge in French tourist arrivals in 2014 by 27.37 percent, First Secretary for Tourism at the Zambian Embassy in France Percy Ngwira has said.
read more
Feb 18, 2015
2015 Europe spring forecast: Dry start in UK; storms target France to Germany
while winter has spared much of Europe from extreme cold, many are wondering what spring has in store for them.
Following a winter that featured very active weather across southern Europe, a stormy start to spring is forecast which will lead to an elevated threat for flooding.
Spring will start off dry across the United Kingdom, but a change in the overall weather patterns looms from late spring into summer.
The changing weather pattern could also cause problems for agriculture in the Iberian Peninsula and across Eastern Europe.
Wet Spring to Cause High Flood Risk for Italy and Balkan Peninsula
The greatest concern for flooding stretches from southern and central Italy into the Balkans, reaching as far north as Hungary and Slovakia and as far south as Greece and western Turkey.
The combination of a wet winter which delivered large amounts of snow in the higher terrain and a continued stormy pattern will lead to this elevated risk for flooding. As temperatures slowly moderate, the snow pack will melt.
"The combination of melting snow in the Dinaric Alps and Carpathian Mountains will lead to river flooding," according to Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
As temperatures rise late in the spring and early summer, the threat will shift from flooding to localized severe weather from Romania into Bulgaria. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and even an isolated tornado from late April into May.
Severe Weather to Threaten France, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany
While Romania and Bulgaria may get some localized severe weather, a more widespread severe weather threat will exist from the interior of Spain northeast through the interior of Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. A few strong to severe thunderstorms could also target Switzerland.
The setup for this severe weather will be based upon milder air building across northwestern Europe as high pressure builds over and just west of the region.
This mild air will be a key ingredient for thunderstorms as storm systems rushing into the region bring shots of colder air with them. The Atlantic air masses that will be over northwestern Europe for much of spring will contain ample moisture, a key ingredient for these strong to severe thunderstorms.
Roys added, "The greatest threats will be for damaging winds and hail; however, the strongest storm systems will be capable of bringing the threat for several tornadoes to areas from France into Germany, especially late in the season."
Dry Start to Spring for UK, Ireland; Seasonable Temperatures Throughout Spring
The spring will be full of variability in areas from Ireland and the United Kingdom into northern France, Belgium and Netherlands.
The season will start with generally below-normal rainfall as most of the moisture with storm systems pass to the south. However, as the season progresses, high pressure will build in the eastern Atlantic Ocean resulting in storms tracking farther north and through the United Kingdom and Ireland during mid- to late spring.
While the spring will turn increasingly wet from April into May, temperatures will remain near normal as a whole across the region. No extended periods of below-normal temperatures are expected as cold air remains entrenched over eastern Europe.
"A dry start to the spring will also provide favorable conditions for agriculture, including barley and sugarbeets, which are typically planted in March," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Early Rains Replaced by Dry and Warmth in Portugal, Spain and Southern France
The favored storm track in early spring will feature storms passing through southern Europe, bringing rain to areas from Spain and southern France through Italy and into the Balkans.
Unlike southeastern Europe, a pattern shift is expected in western Europe as high pressure builds over the eastern Atlantic Ocean by mid-season forcing storms farther north.
According to Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert, "A large ridge of high pressure building over the northeast Atlantic Ocean will result in a change to much drier weather across Portugal and Spain early in the season."
This large area of high pressure will foster above-normal warmth and very little rainfall across Portugal and Spain from late March into April and May. As a result, the remaining rains through March will be vital to agriculture as reservoir levels will be tested by the extended dry weather that will begin by the middle of the season and likely linger through the summer months.
Two crops that could be impacted by the turn to dry weather include olives in Spain and grapes in southern France.
Following one of the worst years for olive oil production in 2014, another lackluster olive crop could lead to further increases in prices, as the Mediterranean region supplies the majority of the global olive crop.
A poor grape crop in France could have impacts on wine; however, the extent of this will be determined by irrigation in the region. A wet winter and early spring could allow water supplies to support the crops in Spain despite a turn to drier weather.
Cold Lingers in East; Scandinavia Enjoys Mild and Drier Weather
A ridge of high pressure will dominate Scandinavia this spring resulting in a drier weather pattern along with seasonably mild air.
A turn to drier weather will be beneficial for water levels which will likely be high following a wet winter combined with spring snowmelt.
Meanwhile, the same area of high pressure will result in continuing presses of cold air southward across eastern Europe. These colder-than-normal air masses will set the stage for early spring snow from the higher terrain of Romania into Ukraine and Belarus.
The overall cold weather pattern will lead to a lasting snowpack in this region that would likely delay the planting of agriculture during the early spring. A positive side to the snowpack is that it would provide ample moisture for crops moving into the summer months.
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اخطاریه شماره 7 مورخ 93/11/30 پیرو اطلاعیه شماره 33مورخ 29/11/93 به استحضار می رساند:وقوع بارش های شدید باران توام با رعدوبرق و در برخی نقاط استان همراه با بارش تگرگ و وزش باد نسبتا شدید تا شدید به طور متناوب از بعد از ظهر امروز(پنج شنبه 30/11/93) تا روز دوشنبه هفته آتی (4/12/93) پیش بینی می گردد. از این رو آب گرفتگی معابر، سیلابی شدن رودخانه ها و مسیل ها طی این مدت در سطح استان دور از انتظار نیست، ضمن این که بارندگی در نواحی سردسیر و کوهستانی بشکل برف و باران خواهد بود.
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محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
نروژ 21 میل برف خالص در نظر گرفته واسه مشهد از یکشنبه شب تا دوشنبه شب..
راستی سلام
راستی سلام
بولتن پيش بينـي وضـع هـواي استانتاریخ : 30/11/93
مرکز پیش بینی اداره کل هواشناسی خراسان رضوی آخرین نقشه ها و مدل های هواشناسی نشان دهنده تقویت و گسترش سامانه بارشیطی 72 ساعت آینده بر روی استان می باشد و پیامد آن ابرناکی ، در غالب نقاط بارش باران ( در نواحی مرتفع و کوهستانی باران و برف ) ، گاهی وزش باد نسبتاً شدید همراه با تشکیل مه و کاهش دیدخواهد بود. بر این اساس:
پیش بینی وضع هوای استان خراسان رضوی
| پنج شنبه 30/11/1393( از ساعت 00 تا 24 ) | جمعه1/12/1393( از ساعت 00 تا 24 ) | شنبه 2/12/1393 ( از ساعت 00 تا 24 ) | |||
نواحی شمالی | نیمه ابری تا ابری و مه آلود ، در پاره ای نقاط همراه با بارش پراکنده (نواحی کوهستانی باران و برف) گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | نیمه ابری و مه آلود ، گاهی افزایش ابر همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ(نواحی کوهستانی باران و برف)گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | نیمه ابری و مه آلود ، گاهی افزایش ابر همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ(نواحی کوهستانی باران و برف)گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | ||
نواحی مرکزی | نیمه ابری تا ابری و مه آلود ، در پاره ای نقاط همراه با بارش پراکنده با احتمال رعدوبرق گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | قسمتی تا نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | ||
نواحی جنوبی | نیمه ابری تا ابری و مه آلود ، در پاره ای نقاط همراه با رگبار پراکنده با احتمال رعدوبرق گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | قسمتی تا نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | ||
شهرستانمشهد | نیمه ابری تا ابری و مه آلود ، در برخی ساعات همراه با بارش باران گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | قسمتی تا نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | نیمه ابری و مه آلود گاهی افزایش ابر ، در برخی ساعات همراه با رگبار و رعدوبرق با احتمال تگرگ گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید | ||
کمینه دما | بیشینه دما | کمینه دما | بیشینه دما | کمینه دما | بیشینه دما |
6 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 15 |
گزارش وضع هوا در 24 ساعت گذ شته :در 24 ساعت گذشته کوهسرخ با حداقل دمای صفر درجه سلسیوس سردترین و سبزوار با حداکثر دمای 18 درجه سلسیوس گرمترین شهرهای استان خراسان رضوی بوده اند . طی همین مدت حداقل و حداکثر دمای مشهد 6 و 11 درجه سلسیوس بوده است . طی این مدت بیشترین میزان بارنگی از ایستگاه هواشناسی تربت حیدریه و به میزان 8/8 میلیمتر گزارش شده است. پیش بین مسئول : مرتضی اثمری رئیس اداره پیش بینی : یحیی قاینی پور
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
درود بر استاد امیرمحسن عزیز.. قربان شاید نگرانی بیشتر بچه‌ها درمورد نفوذ و زمان هوای سرد باشه..بنظر شما سرما و هوای سرد همراهی مناسبی با بارش ها خواهد کرد؟؟
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
دوستان یه جوری ماشین حساب گرفتن هزارمو انسو میزنن بانک جهانی برای حساب هاش اینجور نمیزنه...
اااا 0.00003 کم شد! حالا گفتن موثره ولی به نظرتون سیستم سازو کارش تشکیل شده و فعالیتش شروع شده دمای آب بخشی از کره زمین 0.0001 کم و زیاد شه چه اتفاقی میفته!؟ممکنه رو سیکلون زایی کلی یه ماه تاثیر بذاره ولی اصلا موافق این تاثیرات لحظه ای نیستن! دوم اینکه شما به این عددها کار نداشته باشید الگوی جو الآن خنثاس و امیر محسنم که گفتن کلا لانینا شد...!
اااا 0.00003 کم شد! حالا گفتن موثره ولی به نظرتون سیستم سازو کارش تشکیل شده و فعالیتش شروع شده دمای آب بخشی از کره زمین 0.0001 کم و زیاد شه چه اتفاقی میفته!؟ممکنه رو سیکلون زایی کلی یه ماه تاثیر بذاره ولی اصلا موافق این تاثیرات لحظه ای نیستن! دوم اینکه شما به این عددها کار نداشته باشید الگوی جو الآن خنثاس و امیر محسنم که گفتن کلا لانینا شد...!
تا همین چند ماه پیش می گقتین اثر نینو 10 روز بعد نمایان می شه . حالا چی شده روزانه تاثیر داره ?!
من هيچوقت نگفتم اثرش 10 روز بعد نمايان ميشه آبتين جان
اثرش بلافاصله بر آب و هواي جهان تاثير ميزاره
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
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