Forecast in fall correctly predicted polar vortex effects
Winter brings extreme cold in the East and persistent drought in the West.
NORWALK REFLECTOR STAFF
FEB 27, 2015
With the end of winter less than a month away, the season has performed as predicted by the AccuWeather 2014-15 Winter Forecast, released to the public several months ago.
In the Midwest and East, very mild weather in November and December gave way to unusual levels of cold and snow, while the West has remained dry much of the winter, which is likely to worsen the drought situation. All of this wild weather was predicted by AccuWeather months in advance. The story was posted on this website in early August.
It is widely considered highly unlikely for a polar vortex to play a major role in two consecutive winters but, as AccuWeather foresaw, the polar vortex has had a greater than usual influence this winter, bringing record cold to the Midwest and East. As of the time of this release, record lows have been shattered in New York City, Washington DC, Chicago, Charlotte, Atlanta, Detroit, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Lexington, Lynchburg, VA, Erie, PA, Jacksonville, and Orlando and more ice and snow expected to blast the Plains, Midwest, and East through the end of February.
Above normal snowfall in New England was stressed in the October forecast and that has certainly come to pass as Boston approaches a near record-breaking 100 inches of snowfall.
"The trend of precipitation and temperature has followed exactly the pattern we called for in October. As we forecast, the East and Midwest had near or above-normal temperatures in November and December, but January and February brought snow and extreme cold. The Southwest and California have had mild temperatures and some rain in December and February, though not enough to make a major difference in the drought," said Paul Pastelok, lead long-range forecaster and senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, Inc. "The forecast wasn't great news for many, but businesses and individuals who rely on AccuWeather forecasts were able to prepare for what was to come. We know how serious the consequences of extreme weather can be and that's why we continue to make Superior Accuracy™ our mission."
The polar vortex became stronger and moved farther south in late January, causing cold to intensify in the Midwest and East and drought to build in California and the West. A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, which sits over the polar region much of the winter but sometimes is pushed down into Canada and the U.S. by changes in the polar region that AccuWeather is able to predict.
The polar vortex played a role in several key events, including the late-January blizzard that impacted much of New England and the severe cold prevalent throughout the northeast in February
The long-range AccuWeather team predicted specific events in its seasonal forecast released in October, including the February freeze in Florida and ice storms in the Tennessee Valley.
The West Coast has suffered in a different way this winter, with a significant dry period in the middle of winter book-ended by stormier weather, as predicted by AccuWeather. As of late-February, U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) indicates levels of "exceptional drought" throughout much of the West and California, which will not be fully ameliorated by late-February precipitation.
AccuWeather's seasonal forecast accuracy continues to amaze many who did not know such long-range Superior Accuracy could be obtained.