Risk of mild El Nino clouds forecast of Peruvian anchovy recovery for 2015
March 2, 2015, 2:32 pm
Alicia Villegas
A recovery in Peru's anchovy biomass is spurring hopes of more favorable fishing conditions in 2015, already in time for the first fishing season in the spring.
However, indications of a possible mild El Nino this year as well is casting some uncertainty over the forecasts.
In its latest report on the pelagic sector, the Dutch bank Rabobank writes that projections of a "good fishing season" will see a rebound in the supply of fishmeal and fish oil from Peru this year.
Research by Peru's marine institute Imarpe, which advised the fishing closure of last year's second anchovy season, revealed the El Nino phenomenon had a real impact on the resource in its latest survey in the national waters.
The institute's most recent research trip 'Eureka' found that juveniles made up almost 80% of the anchovy biomass. While problematic for last year's fishing, this is interpreted as a positive sign for this year's anchovy fishing, already for the first season.
Peru's anchovy fishing is divided into two main season, usually running from May to July (known as the first season) and from November to January (the second season).
"Anchovy grow a centimeter per month and we think the biomass will be ready for fishing between April and May, since it will reach normal size by the end of this quarter," Humberto Speziani, director of Peru's second largest fishmeal producer Tecnologica de Alimentos Somos (Tasa), told Undercurrent News.
The Rabobank report echoes this.
"The projections are that the current juvenile biomass will double in weight as it matures over the next few months, indicating that, by April, a biomass of 8 million tons to 10m tons is possible, which is within the normal range," said the report.
In early 2014, Peruvian anchovy biomass was projected at 12m tons, but with only 2.2m tons caught (see image below) the current biomass should be 9.8m tons, the investment bank said.
The Eureka survey estimated the biomass to be in the range of 4m to 5m metric tons, which has prompted discussion about the "missing biomass".
"Predation by birds, fish or other predators has not been observed, and even death from starvation -- which can sometimes happen in times of high water temperatures --has not been observed, as, historically, anchovy would wash up on the shores when starvation occurred," wrote Rabobank.
"The speculation is that the anchovy may have migrated to deeper waters or areas where fishing does not occur. It is also possible that some of it has moved closer to the coast, within the 10-mile artisanal fishing area."
This artisanal fishing area was established after the approval of a law in March 2012 which restricted operations of industrial fishing vessels within 10 miles of the shore, along Peru‘s central and northern coast, or within seven miles of its southern shores.
In December last year, local media reported Lima Superior Court's declared the decree unconstitutional, after an appeal submitted by Peru's Fishing Shipowners Association.
Peruvian anchovy TAC per season and effective catch reate, 2010-2015.
Mild El Nino speculation
The El Nino may not be fully behind us, however. According to the Rabobank report, scientists claim a mild El Nino could still form in 2015.
This "will again create uncertainty, even for the second fishing season... and possibly longer," the investment bank said.
Although the El Nino is in its final stage and Peruvian waters are expected to quickly get colder, offshore sea surface temperatures are still showing abnormalities, oceanic scientist Luis Icochea told Undercurrent.
"It is concerning that a sub-surface mass of water with warmer than normal levels remains offshore, which could mean new abnormalities as a result of new Kelvin waves," Icochea, who was one of the first to warn about a strong El Nino in Peru last year, said.
These warm Kelvin waves will affect anchovy distribution, although extreme changes of temperatures are not expected, Icochea said.
Under the most optimistic projections, pelagic resources such as anchovy will not be affected, "provided that there is adequate management of the resource," Icochea told Undercurrent.
