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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل دوم( دي- بهمن-اسفند)
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ali_kermanshah
کاربر ويژه
Weather Service forecasting computers to become 10 times more powerful in 2015
The National Weather Service’s primary computer model trails competitors in Europe in overall forecasting accuracy. But today it announced upgrades to its supercomputers that hold great promise to improve its predictions.By October this year, the capacity of the two National Weather Service (NWS) supercomputers will increase by nearly a factor of ten it said.“By increasing our overall capacity, we’ll be able to process quadrillions of calculations per second that all feed into our forecasts and predictions,” said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service in a press release. “This boost in processing power is essential as we work to improve our numerical prediction models for more accurate and consistent forecasts required to build a Weather Ready Nation.”The anticipated ramp-up in computing power results from a $44.5 million investment in high performance computer with IBM, $25 million of which was supplied by Congress following Superstorm Sandy.These computing upgrades were originally scheduled to occur in 2014, but IBM – its contractor -sold its supercomputing services to Lenovo, a Chinese company. This raised red flags in Congress, according to reports, and put computer acquisitions on hold.“In late January 2014, NWS was literally weeks away from executing a task order under its current contract with IBM that would have significantly increased its computing capacity and allowed the NWS to meet the goals communicated publicly in 2013,” said a NWS white paper published in November last year. “However, IBM’s decision to leave the x86 server business by selling the line to Lenovo caught NOAA, and everyone else, by surprise and prevented us from moving forward with this procurement.”NWS was forced to start a procurement process from scratch early in 2014 and announced today that Cray Inc., headquartered in Seattle, WA, will serve as the subcontractor for IBM to provide the next round of computer upgrades.“We are excited to provide NOAA’s National Weather Service with advanced supercomputing capabilities for running operational weather forecasts with greater detail and precision,” said Peter Ungaro, president and CEO of Cray in a press release. “This investment to increase their supercomputing capacity will allow the National Weather Service to both augment current capabilities and run more advanced models.”
These planned upgrades follow a three-fold boost in computing power in the works for later this month that will allow NWS to run an enhanced version of its Global Forecast System (GFS) model, with greater resolution deeper into the future.This improvement follows a substantial upgrade to the NWS hurricane model (known as the HWRF), and the operational launch of a high resolution model for forecasting thunderstorms (known as the HRRR) in 2014.Despite these investments, whether NWS will be able to catch up to European counterparts in an ongoing supercomputing arms race is an open question. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and United Kingdom Met Office recently invested $64 million and $128 million, respectively, in computer upgrades (although a sizable chunk of UKMet Office investment is for climate modeling, rather than weather modeling).“The US computer capacity will not surpass the European infrastructure without additional investment,” the November NWS white paper said
The National Weather Service’s primary computer model trails competitors in Europe in overall forecasting accuracy. But today it announced upgrades to its supercomputers that hold great promise to improve its predictions.By October this year, the capacity of the two National Weather Service (NWS) supercomputers will increase by nearly a factor of ten it said.“By increasing our overall capacity, we’ll be able to process quadrillions of calculations per second that all feed into our forecasts and predictions,” said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service in a press release. “This boost in processing power is essential as we work to improve our numerical prediction models for more accurate and consistent forecasts required to build a Weather Ready Nation.”The anticipated ramp-up in computing power results from a $44.5 million investment in high performance computer with IBM, $25 million of which was supplied by Congress following Superstorm Sandy.These computing upgrades were originally scheduled to occur in 2014, but IBM – its contractor -sold its supercomputing services to Lenovo, a Chinese company. This raised red flags in Congress, according to reports, and put computer acquisitions on hold.“In late January 2014, NWS was literally weeks away from executing a task order under its current contract with IBM that would have significantly increased its computing capacity and allowed the NWS to meet the goals communicated publicly in 2013,” said a NWS white paper published in November last year. “However, IBM’s decision to leave the x86 server business by selling the line to Lenovo caught NOAA, and everyone else, by surprise and prevented us from moving forward with this procurement.”NWS was forced to start a procurement process from scratch early in 2014 and announced today that Cray Inc., headquartered in Seattle, WA, will serve as the subcontractor for IBM to provide the next round of computer upgrades.“We are excited to provide NOAA’s National Weather Service with advanced supercomputing capabilities for running operational weather forecasts with greater detail and precision,” said Peter Ungaro, president and CEO of Cray in a press release. “This investment to increase their supercomputing capacity will allow the National Weather Service to both augment current capabilities and run more advanced models.”
These planned upgrades follow a three-fold boost in computing power in the works for later this month that will allow NWS to run an enhanced version of its Global Forecast System (GFS) model, with greater resolution deeper into the future.This improvement follows a substantial upgrade to the NWS hurricane model (known as the HWRF), and the operational launch of a high resolution model for forecasting thunderstorms (known as the HRRR) in 2014.Despite these investments, whether NWS will be able to catch up to European counterparts in an ongoing supercomputing arms race is an open question. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and United Kingdom Met Office recently invested $64 million and $128 million, respectively, in computer upgrades (although a sizable chunk of UKMet Office investment is for climate modeling, rather than weather modeling).“The US computer capacity will not surpass the European infrastructure without additional investment,” the November NWS white paper said
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
احتمال جاری شدن سیلاب و طغیان رودخانه های فصلی در استان خراسان رضوی
تاریخ : شنبه بیستم دی 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
نظر بدهید
تاریخ : شنبه بیستم دی 1393
نویسنده : امیر محسن
نظر بدهید
مطابق آخرین آپدیت نقشه های هواشناسی به دلیل افزایش شدت بارشها در نواحی مرکزی و باند شرقی استان خراسان رضوی احتمال جاری شدن سیلاب و طغیان رودخانه ها در مناطقی همچون شهر های گناباد- تربت حیدریه- تربت جام- تایباد- صالح آباد- سرخس- فریمان-کاشمر طی ساعت امشب و اولین ساعات بامداد فردا یکشنبه دور از انتظار نخواهد . همچنین در نواحی کوهستانی و برفگیر مناطق مذکور به دلیل شدت بارش برف احتمال اختلال در تردد جاده ای وجود دارد.
در حال حاضر بغیر از ایستگاههای گلمکان-نیشابور-سبزوار-قوچان -درگز و کلات در تمام ایستگاههای خراسان رضوی و شهر مشهد خدا رو شکر شاهد بارش باران و برف با شدت مناسبی هستیم.
در حال حاضر بغیر از ایستگاههای گلمکان-نیشابور-سبزوار-قوچان -درگز و کلات در تمام ایستگاههای خراسان رضوی و شهر مشهد خدا رو شکر شاهد بارش باران و برف با شدت مناسبی هستیم.
بدلیل درخواستهای متعدد دوستان و قول مساعدی که از سوی این عزیزان در خصوص رعایت شئونات وب سایت هوای مشهد داده شده و همچنین به دلیل ضرورت اطلاع رسانی در خصوص پدیده جوی خاص امشب بخش نظرات پس از تایید ، در اختیار علاقمندان محترم قرار خواهد گرفت.
قبلا از همکاری شما عزیزان سپاسگذارم
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آخرین ویرایش:
seyyedalireza
مدیر موقت
خداروشکر مرکز مشهد سه ساعت داره شدید می باره خدا رو شکرت
ساعت 24- اصفهانیها نخستین بارش برف زمستانی را به نظاره نشستهاند.
مردم تعدادی از شهرستانهای استان اصفهان نیز عصر امروز نخستین بارش برف زمستانی را تجربه کردند.
بررسی نقشههای هواشناسی بیانگر گذر امواج ناپایدار از روی استان بوده که بر این اساس، شاهد بارش برف و باران در اصفهان بوده و هماکنون برکت الهی و بارش برف در حال نزول است.
افزایش بارندگی در نواحی غرب، جنوبغرب و جنوب از شدت بیشتری برخوردار است و کماکان تداوم هوای سرد تا اواسط هفته بر روی استان وجود دارد.
به گزارش ساعت 24 به نقل از تسنيم، بر این اساس در ۲۴ ساعت آینده دما ۲ تا ۵ درجه کاهش دارد و هوا نسبت به روزهای قبل سردتر میشود.فردا نیز آسمان نیمه ابری و مه صبحگاهی، گاهی افزایش ابر و وزش باد و بارش پراکنده پیشبینی شده است.اصفهان تاکنون پائیز و زمستان خشکی را پشت سر گذاشته و این نخستین بارش برف در اصفهان است.
seyyedalireza
مدیر موقت
فکر کنم اگه بارش ادامه داشته باشه تا دو سه ساعت دیگه تبدیل به برف شه
وحید - مشهد
کاربر ويژه
وضع هوای مشهد
هوای حاضر ساعت: ۲۰:۵۵
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
۱° c بارش باران جهت باد: شمال شرقی |
سرعت باد: ۲ متر بر ثانیه, ۷ کیلومتر بر ساعت نم نسبی: % ۱۰۰ دید افقی: ۶۰۰۰متر بارندگی 24 ساعت گذشته: ۰.۲ میلیمتر بیشینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۳° c کمینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: -۲° c |
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MASHHAD Airport Forecast
| The report was made 25 minutes ago, at 17:10 UTC |
| Forecast valid from 10 at 18 UTC to 11 at 24 UTC |
| Wind 12 kt from the Southeast |
| Visibility: 3000 m |
| Few clouds at a height of 2500 ft,Cumulonimbus. Scattered clouds at a height of 3000ft Overcast at a height of 8000 ft |
| rain |
| Becoming from 10 at 19 UTC to 10 at 22 UTC |
| Visibility: 1500 m |
| Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft Few clouds at a height of 2500 ft,Cumulonimbus. Overcast at a height of 8000 ft |
| snow and mist |
| Temporary from 10 at 20 UTC to 10 at 24 UTC |
| Visibility: 0500 m |
| fog |
| Becoming from 11 at 02 UTC to 11 at 04 UTC |
| Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft |
| Becoming from 11 at 05 UTC to 11 at 06 UTC |
| Visibility: 5000 m |
| Scattered clouds at a height of 3000ft |
| Becoming from 11 at 13 UTC to 11 at 16 UTC |
| Visibility: 7000 m |
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
سلام دوستان
خدارو شكر غرب مشهد هم مثل مركز و شرق با شدت خوبي داره ميباره
تقريبا از ساعت 16 بارش دونه هاي يخ زده بارون شرو شد كه گهگاهي برف و بارون ميشد و حدود يك ساعته كه به صورت بارون ريز شديد ميباره.
اميدوارم ادامه داشته باشه...
خدارو شكر غرب مشهد هم مثل مركز و شرق با شدت خوبي داره ميباره
تقريبا از ساعت 16 بارش دونه هاي يخ زده بارون شرو شد كه گهگاهي برف و بارون ميشد و حدود يك ساعته كه به صورت بارون ريز شديد ميباره.
اميدوارم ادامه داشته باشه...
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
Long term forecast forMashhad, Razavi Khorasan
نروژ براي شنبه هفته آينده مشهد پيش بيني خوبي كرده!
انشاالله در آپ هاي بعدي نپره...
| Saturday 17/01/2015 | 21:00–03:00 |
| 5° | 0 mm |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| 2° | 0.5 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| 1° | 4.1 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| 1° | 3.3 mm |
| |
| Sunday 18/01/2015 | 21:00–03:00 |
| -1° | 1.1 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| -2° | 0.4 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| -2° | 0.2 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| -1° | 0.8 mm |
| |
| Monday 19/01/2015 | 21:00–03:00 |
| -4° | 2.3 mm |
|
| 03:00–09:00 |
| -4° | 2.6 mm |
| |
| 09:00–15:00 |
| -3° | 0.8 mm |
| |
| 15:00–21:00 |
| -2° | 0.1 mm |
| |
| Tuesday 20/01/2015 | 21:00–03:00 |
| -6° | 0 mm |
|
آمد به سرم از آن چه میترسیدم..یادته دیشب گفتم امشب بارشه خوبی رخ میدم ولی میترسم که برف نشه چون بیشترش تو دما 1،تا 2درجه رخ میده..ظاهرا قرار نیست که وا سردتر بشه
باز هم خدارو شکر که حداقل بارون رو تجربه کردیم خدارو شکر:گل:
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