Ashobaa – The most difficult storm to predict
June 11: Ashobaa has been one of the most difficult storm to predict. Meteorologists around the region of the Arabian Sea had to change their predictions and forecasts on the directions of the storm. This was the not just for the weather experts around the Arabian Sea, but also international experts.
In the case of Gonu and Phet the direction of movement was quiet clear pointed out weather forecasters in Oman. At the beginning of Ashobaa formation due to low pressure in the Arabia Sea the system looked like it would go towards Pakistan but now it is quite clear cut that Ashobaa will have land fall in South Sharqiyah and end at Masirah. The effect of the storm will contribute in rain in other parts of Oman including Muscat.
Global models based on numerical weather predictions with data collected from observations from satellite images, ships and others still gave indications that confused meteorologists. On the other hand in Oman there was Al Hajjar mountain effect that had already set in which is a regular summer feature.
At the onset Pakistan meteorologists were expecting the storm to reach Karachi. The Indian meteorologists predicted the storm to reach the western parts of India. Ashobaa had manoeuvred and steered to the direction of Oman.
“The tropical storm Ashobaa has been difficult to tract, which is not uncommon when it comes to tropical storms, because it not scientifically easy so far. There are still lot of question marks on getting the tracks of tropical storms and cyclones accurately. Statistically if we do a forecast of 24 hours we might get an error of plus or minus 60 km error in the track. So far we have been doing well,” said Dr Juma al Said al Maskeri, the Director-General of Meteorology at Public Authority for Civil Aviation.
“We expect the tropical storm to be degraded and move to tropical depression heading parallel to the coast and it might cross Masirah and Ras Madrakah,” said the DG of Meteorology.
As the report was being prepared Ashobba was once again changing its direction towards further South between Masirah and Ras Madrakah.
The director-general of meteorology said the Sultanate has already received good amount of rainfall from Ashobaa at several places in Sharqiyah, and especially in Masirah as well as South Eastern Coast in general. He said people should not just be worried about the rain and crossing wadis instead they should be worried about going into the sea. The fishermen have to take all cautions not to venture out into the sea. “Wave heights are really high over the Arabian Sea. The sea is really rough. At the same time the waves in the Sea of Oman are ceasing. Now it is moderate with the maximum wave height of three metres.”
While the storm moves on Muscat, Dakhiliyah, Al Wusta, Al Batinah just ought to receive effect of the storm in the form of rain.
Ashobaa – The most difficult storm to predict | Oman Observer
