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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی تابستان 1393
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اینهم نقشه های آنومالی بارش بر اساس مدل آنالوگ روز گذشته!
سپتامبر- اکتبر- نوامبر
دسامبر-ژانویه-فوریه:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 August 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis:[HIGHLIGHT] The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter[/HIGHLIGHT].
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_aug2014/ensodisc.pdf
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 August 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis:[HIGHLIGHT] The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter[/HIGHLIGHT].
During July 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, but near average SSTs prevailed in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Most of the Niño indices decreased toward the end of the month with values of +0.3°C in Niño-4, -0.1°C in Niño-3.4, +0.2°C in Niño-3, and +0.6°C in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) continued to decrease and are slightly below average (Fig. 3). The above-average subsurface temperatures that were observed near the surface during June (down to 100m depth) are now limited to a thin layer in the top 50m, underlain by mainly below-average temperatures (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average during July, but westerly wind anomalies appeared in the central and eastern part of the basin toward the end of the month. Upper-level winds remained generally near average and convection was enhanced mainly just north of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 5). The lack of a coherent atmospheric El Niño pattern, and a return to near-average SSTs in the central Pacific, indicate ENSO-neutral.
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_aug2014/ensodisc.pdf
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
There will be[HIGHLIGHT] some warming over[/HIGHLIGHT] the next few months[HIGHLIGHT] but not enough for a weak El Niño
[/HIGHLIGHT]
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
نقشه های پیش بینی بلند مدت فصلی اسمبل آپدیت شدند:
پیش بینی نینو 3.4
CFSv2
پیش بینی نینو 3.4
CFSv2
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اکثریت این مدلها اعتقاد به بارش مرطوب و پر بارش دارند:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
با اینکه چشم انداز مطلوبی برای بارش در ماه های پاییز خصوصا اکتبر و نوامبر در منطقه ما دیده میشه و ظاهرا دریای سرخ بسیار فعال بنظر میرسه ولی فعلا چشم انداز بارش زمستان اگه قرار باشه با عینک خوشبینی نگاه کنیم نزدیک به نرمال شاید بشه.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
مدل CFSv2 هم که لحظاتی پیش بروز شد اعتقاد در وقوع بارش بیشتر از نرمال در بازه زمانی سپتامبر تا نوامبر داره و برای زمستون هم شرایط رو نرمال در نظر گرفته:
آخرین ویرایش:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
El Nino is still on track for the fall and winter but some of the expectations are getting downplayed in the latest update.
The consensus is for a weak to moderate El Nino with average to slightly above average rain in Southern California. There is no indication associated rainfall will be above, or below average for Northern California.
A large area of cooler water has crept into the classic El Nino zone near the equator. This will make it more difficult for El Nino to form, but by no means does it kill the event. Right now it's 65 percent likely we will see El Nino this fall and winter.
The consensus is for a weak to moderate El Nino with average to slightly above average rain in Southern California. There is no indication associated rainfall will be above, or below average for Northern California.
A large area of cooler water has crept into the classic El Nino zone near the equator. This will make it more difficult for El Nino to form, but by no means does it kill the event. Right now it's 65 percent likely we will see El Nino this fall and winter.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
پيش بينى هايى كه تابستان پارسال براى زمستان پارسال شد ، كدام شون درست از آب در اومد؟ به همون مدل اعتماد كنيد .
منظورم اينه كه پارسال تابستون كدوم مدل دقيقتر وضع بارش و دما زمستان پارسال را پيش بينى كرد؟
به مدلى اقتدا كنيد كه سالهاى پيش ، پيش بينى هاى بلند مدتش دقيق بوده
از طرفى پيش بينى هاى فصلى نهايت اعتبارشون ٧٠ درصد هست .
به النينو و لانينا ام نيس
پس اميد تون به خدا
منظورم اينه كه پارسال تابستون كدوم مدل دقيقتر وضع بارش و دما زمستان پارسال را پيش بينى كرد؟
به مدلى اقتدا كنيد كه سالهاى پيش ، پيش بينى هاى بلند مدتش دقيق بوده
از طرفى پيش بينى هاى فصلى نهايت اعتبارشون ٧٠ درصد هست .
به النينو و لانينا ام نيس
پس اميد تون به خدا
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