Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بله نقشه ها هم ناهنجاری دمایی و هم بارشی در سطح کشور و خصوصا نیمه شمالی رو نشون میدن
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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی تابستان 1393
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بله نقشه ها هم ناهنجاری دمایی و هم بارشی در سطح کشور و خصوصا نیمه شمالی رو نشون میدن
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM ENSO-NEUTRAL TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORED TO BE IN PLACE BY EARLY FALL, HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PACE OF ONSET AND EVENTUAL INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED FROM LAST MONTH, BUT THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. AT THIS POINT, AN EL NINO OF WEAK TO MODERATE STRENGTH IS MOST LIKELY.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN INDICATE THAT A TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS CONTINUES. THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SST ANOMALIES OF +0.5 DEGREES C ALONG THE EQUATOR FOR MUCH OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT FOR BETWEEN 150W AND THE DATE LINE, WHERE ANOMALIES ARE LESS THAN +0.5C. EAST OF ABOUT 130W, ANOMALIES EXCEED +1.0 C IN PLACES. HOWEVER, SUBSEASONAL VARIABILITY ACROSS THE TROPICS HAS SLOWED THE TRANSITION TO EL NINO IN RECENT WEEKS.. THE CURRENT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH A DEVELOPING EL NINO. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC, EXCEPT FROM 140W-120W, WHERE THERE WERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE PAST MONTH. THE SOI REMAINED POSITIVE DURING THE PAST MONTH, ALTHOUGH IT DECREASED FROM MAY TO JUNE.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
THE EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC (POLEWARD OF 20N) CURRENTLY PROJECTS STRONGLY ONTO A POSITIVE PDO PATTERN, THE STRONGEST SUCH PROJECTION IN LATE SPRING IN MANY YEARS. THE STATE OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALSO A BIT DIFFERENT THAN IN RECENT YEARS, WITH THE MOST RECENT INDEX VALUE OF THE AMO BEING JUST SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, THE WEAKEST IN SEVERAL YEARS.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS MOST STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. THE CFS PREDICTS NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO AROUND +1.0 C BY LATE FALL. THE MEAN OF THE STATISTICAL TOOLS IS JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DYNAMICAL TOOL MEAN THROUGH THE FALL, WITH BOTH PEAKING JUST BELOW +1.0C DURING THE WINTER. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECAST PREDICTS THE SST ANOMALY FOR NINO 3.4 TO INCREASE TO +0.9 C BY THE TURN OF THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE IMME AND NMME ALSO PREDICT SST ANOMALIES INCREASING FROM NEAR +0.5 C IN JUNE TO NEAR +1.0 BY OCTOBER, WITH THE IMME SLIGHTLY COLDER THROUGH SEPTEMBER, THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE NMME AND IMME HAS TIGHTENED, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREDICTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE POSSIBLE EVENT. ALTOGETHER, ODDS OF AN EL NINO EVENT OF ANY STRENGTH PEAK AT 78% BY LATE FALL. THE COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL SST PREDICTION METHODS SUGGESTS A BORDERLINE MODERATE EVENT, ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG EVENT, OR A RETURN TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH LESS LIKELY, CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. IT IS WORTH NOTING, HOWEVER, THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG EVENT IS LOWER COMPARED TO LAST MONTH.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WERE MADE CONSIDERING EL NINO CONDITIONS TO BE A FACTOR IN LATE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL. GUIDANCE FROM THE CFS AS WELL AS THE NMME AND IMME AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COMPONENTS CONTRIBUTED TO THE OUTLOOKS FROM ASO THROUGH NDJ 2014, ESPECIALLY WHERE THEIR ANOMALIES AGREED WITH COMPOSITES FROM DEVELOPING WARM ENSO EVENTS. THE OUTLOOKS FROM DJF 2014-15 THROUGH FMA 2015 WERE PRIMARILY DETERMINED FROM EL NINO COMPOSITES AND REGRESSIONS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON THE NINO3.4 INDEX, WITH PROBABILITIES REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO FORECAST AND VARIABILITY IN DOWNSTREAM PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE STRENGTH WARM EVENTS. THE BACKGROUND CLIMATE SIGNAL FROM RECENT TRENDS AND THE CPC CON WERE PRIMARILY USED IN CONSTRUCTING OUTLOOKS FROM MAM THROUGH ASO 2015. LITTLE TO NO SIGNAL WAS DISCERNIBLE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER MAM 2015.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
با توجه به اطلاعات بالا:
دمای نینو 3.4 در بازه زمانی پاییز پیشرو در حدود مثبت 1+ خواهد بود.
PDO در فاز مثبت قوی
AMO یک ذره مثبت میشه
پس ما باید در پیش بینی های پیشرو موارد ذیل رو لحاظ کنیم:
FXUS05 KWBC 171257 PMD90D PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY JUL 17 2014 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD (1981-2010).
3) THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4)
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT ANOMALY PATTERNS ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN ENSO.
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIMESCALE THAN ENSO.
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA).
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE.
9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL-WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF FORECAST TOOLS.
دمای نینو 3.4 در بازه زمانی پاییز پیشرو در حدود مثبت 1+ خواهد بود.
PDO در فاز مثبت قوی
AMO یک ذره مثبت میشه
پس ما باید در پیش بینی های پیشرو موارد ذیل رو لحاظ کنیم:
FXUS05 KWBC 171257 PMD90D PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EDT THURSDAY JUL 17 2014 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS THAT USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH TOGETHER COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO. IMPACTS OF THESE EVENTS ARE SUMMARIZED BY SEPARATING 3-MONTH OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 OR MORE DECADES INTO EL NINO, NEUTRAL, AND LA NINA SETS, AVERAGING EACH SEPARATELY, AND THEN COMPUTING ANOMALIES. THESE ARE CALLED "ENSO COMPOSITES", WHICH ARE USED AT TIMES TO SUBJECTIVELY MODIFY THE FORECAST.
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD (1981-2010).
3) THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) - AFFECTS CLIMATE VARIABILITY WITHIN SEASONS. 4)
THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) PATTERNS - WHICH AFFECT ANOMALY PATTERNS ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS. THESE PHENOMENA ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS PREDICTABLE ON A SEASONAL TIMESCALE THAN ENSO.
5) THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) - AN ENSO-LIKE PATTERN OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AFFECTING THE TROPICS AND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICAN REGIONS, BUT WHICH VARIES ON A MUCH LONGER TIMESCALE THAN ENSO.
6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.
7) STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS - CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION (SMLR), CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE (CA) AND ENSEMBLE CCA (ECCA).
8) DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS - INCLUDING THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS). AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST SYSTEM, THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE, COMPRISED OF SEVERAL MODELS AND DESIGNATED NMME, MAY ALSO BE USED EXPERIMENTALLY AND SUBJECTIVELY UNTIL IT IS INCLUDED INTO THE CONSOLIDATION. AN INTERNATIONAL MODEL ENSEMBLE DESIGNATED IMME IS ALSO AVAILABLE.
9) CONSOLIDATION (CON) - AN OBJECTIVE, SKILL-WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF THE OCN, CCA, SMLR, ECCA, AND CFS FORECASTS IS USED AS A FIRST GUESS IN PREPARING THE FORECAST MAPS. THIS TECHNIQUE MAKES OPTIMUM USE OF THE KNOWN SKILL OF FORECAST TOOLS.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
از آخرین روزهای ماه جولای نفوذ یک سامانه مهاجر پر فشار را به سواحل شمالی کشور در پیش خواهیم داشت!!!!!!!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
بدون شرح:
mahmood600
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