May 19, 2014 (notes updated May 26, 2014)
ENSO forecast: El Niño will develop and reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, eastern China, central-eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Australia will be colder-than-normal in austral winter, while most part of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, northern Japan, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas eastern Russia, most part of U.S., southern Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In case of the negative IOD in the Indian Ocean, the unique combination with El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, Angola, Namibia, and central Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition.
ENSO forecast: El Niño will develop and reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, Russia, India, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, eastern China, central-eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. In the Southern Hemisphere, most part of Australia will be colder-than-normal in austral winter, while most part of Africa and South American Continent will be warmer-than-normal.
In the boreal fall, most part of Europe, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, northern Japan, and Mexico will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas eastern Russia, most part of U.S., southern Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition. In case of the negative IOD in the Indian Ocean, the unique combination with El Nino in the Pacific is similar to the situation in 1993, a year of record-breaking cool summer in the northeastern part of Japan.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. On the other hand, wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for U.S., Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and western Brazil. Above normal precipitation is also expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu-season. In the austral spring, Angola, Namibia, and central Australia will be in a drier-than-normal condition.
