• توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.

مباحث عمومی هواشناسی

وضعیت
موضوع بسته شده است.

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
رطوبت در 3 تراز 850-700-500 میلی بار در روز یکشنبه هفته آینده:

ix8p8ujsocizoy2k6ast.png

hoym2zh55tmiltrapjib.png
fjucqfs0cjk0vsmo4.png
 

arashz

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
سلام آرش عزیز خوشحالم به سلامت رسیدید.
والا همون طور که بالا زدم در تاریخ دزفول در این ماه بی سابقه بوده و طبیعتا خسارت هاییم زده.
آمار دیروز فرودگاه منتشر نشد و من از قول اداره تحقیقات صفی آباد می گم که 115.4 م.م فرودگاه بارش داشته
صفی آباد 84 م.م و اهوازم 45 م.م بارش داشتن...
دیگه از این شدیدتر امکان نداشت و خداروشکر ترسالی رخ داد در دزفول و بعد از 6 سال از میانگین بیشتر باریدو بیش از 400 م.م بارش دشت کردیم...

آمار دیروز :

دزفول پایگاه : 35.5 (آمار روز قبلش طبق خیرها و به قول فرماندار حدود 100 م.م بوده که ما به همون 115 بسنده می کنیم!)اگر شد از استاد پرنو دقیقشو می گیرم...بی آماری بد دردیه!
دزفول صفی آباد طبق معمول نصف ما : 19.4
اهواز : 6.6

ممنونم علی جان

این همه بارش واقعا زیاده برای استان خوزستان، فقط حیف که این فصل باریده و امکان ضرر زدن به مزارع بسیار بالا هست.

اما واقعا ترکوندین!:شاد:
 

arashz

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
درود بر امیرمحسن عزیز

بنظر میاد اونقدر گفتیم اوضاع غیر عادی هست که به جنب حاره ای برخورده! اینطوری بخواد قوی بشه دماهای بالای 30 دوباره برخواهند گشت!
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود بر امیرمحسن عزیز

بنظر میاد اونقدر گفتیم اوضاع غیر عادی هست که به جنب حاره ای برخورده! اینطوری بخواد قوی بشه دماهای بالای 30 دوباره برخواهند گشت!

درود آرش جان

رسیدن بخیر

نه اونقدر قوی نمیشه و بنظر میرسه ما از تاریخ یکشنبه هفته آینده با سامانه جدیدی مواجه خواهیم بود و ایندفعه دیگه باید نوبت نیمه شمالی کشور باشه:گل:
 

ali.doosti

کاربر ويژه


درود آرش جان

رسیدن بخیر

نه اونقدر قوی نمیشه و بنظر میرسه ما از تاریخ یکشنبه هفته آینده با سامانه جدیدی مواجه خواهیم بود و ایندفعه دیگه باید نوبت نیمه شمالی کشور باشه:گل:
ای ول...ایشالا بباره واقعا از سوت و کور بودن اینجا دلم گرفته...


[h=2]استان بوشهر، هم لرزید هم سیل‌زده شد
13-5-4-8572514-2.jpg

حادثه > داخلی- گروه شهرستان‌ها:
روزهای آخر هفته گذشته، مناطق زلزله‌زده شهرستان دشتی، هم گرفتار زلزله‌های نسبتا شدید بود و هم به‌دلیل بارش‌های مداوم، این منطقه دچار سیل و آبگرفتگی معابر شد....
 

ali.doosti

کاربر ويژه
ممنونم علی جان

این همه بارش واقعا زیاده برای استان خوزستان، فقط حیف که این فصل باریده و امکان ضرر زدن به مزارع بسیار بالا هست.

اما واقعا ترکوندین!:شاد:
یوهوییش آره خیلی زیاده ولی واقعا یاد گذشته و بارونای توپ بهارمون افتادم...
یه بار واس شکستن رکورد بد نبود!الآن با افتخار سرو بالا میگیریم میگیم تو اردیبهشت 120 م.م بارش تو سه روز داشتیم که تازه هنوز بخشیش مونده و ایشالا بالای 150 میشه!
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
در روز مذکور باید سواحل دریای کاسپین- رشته کوههای البرز و بعضی نقاط شمال غرب کشور با آغاز بارشها مواجه باشند و پتانسیل همرفت هم بالاست:

ATEST21172.png
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]Historic Snowstorm Records; Climate Change to Blame?
pydynowski.png
[h=6]By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist [h=5]May 04, 2013; 5:00 AM
Share |

extreme.jpg
The historic May snowstorm is discussed in the above AccuWeather.com video.
While the debate as to whether climate change is responsible for the rare May snow across the Plains and Upper Midwest continues, there is no question that the snowstorm is historical with numerous records broken.
The snowstorm dumped in excess of a foot across Minnesota and Wisconsin, 6 to 12 inches in central Iowa and up to several inches across other parts of the central Plains on days when highs in the 60s and 70s are more common.
At the top of the snowstorm's total list (east of the Rockies) sits Blooming Prairie, Minn., and an area near Hayward, Wis., with 18 inches.
Rochester, Minn., picked up a total of 15.3 inches, easily surpassing May 1944 as the city's all-time snowiest May.
590x382_05031550_snow503a.png

Totals from the early May 2013 snowstorm, as of early Friday morning. Image courtesy of NOAA.
Eau Claire, Wis., Des Moines, Iowa, and Omaha, Neb., are other cities that recorded their greatest May snow totals. Records for these cities date back to the late 1800s.
The total of 8.7 inches in Eau Claire (as of midnight CDT Friday) shattered the previous record of 3.3 inches from May 2001.
May 1907 with its 1.3 inches was originally Des Moines' snowiest May on record before the city's airport reported a storm total of 6.9 inches at 1 p.m. CDT Friday.
RELATED:
PHOTOS: Historic May Snowstorm Buries Rockies, Plains
Historic Snowstorm Hits Plains to Upper Midwest
AccuWeather.com's Climate Change Page

Before this snowstorm, "no station has reported an inch or more of snowfall in Iowa in May since 1967," stated General Forecaster Jim Lee in a report issued by National Weather Service's Des Moines Office.
Not only did the 3.1 inches of snow in Omaha break the previous May record of 2.0 inches from 1945, but also marked the city's first measurable snow in 46 years.
Thursday was only the second time in recorded history that Kansas City, Mo., received measurable snow in May. A total of 0.5 of an inch fell Thursday, while the only other such occurrence was May 3, 1907.
"While snow is not unheard of away from the Rockies and northern tier states during May, it is the amount of snow and the extent of the snow that is so unusual," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"Snowstorms during May in the Midwest are typically highly localized."
590x442_05031555_midwest.jpg

Photo courtesy of AccuWeather ******** Fan Lois Hubbard Colvin taken in northeastern Nebraska. For more pictures from the storm, please visit this news story.
For some, the historical aspect of this snowstorm raises the question as to whether climate change is fully or partially responsible.
******** user Don Adkins: "Thirty [sic] degrees below normal temps for this time of year. Must be global warming!"
"With a warming planet, we expect to see more extremes, which includes big and late-season snowstorms. That does not necessarily mean we can link this snowstorm to global warming," stated AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist and Climate Change Blogger Brett Anderson.
"What I can say is that this snowstorm was linked to blocking [an atmospheric roadblock] in Canada that forced cold air into the Plains and the storm to stall. Those two ingredients led to the significant snow."
AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno weighed in by saying, "I do not believe this [snowstorm] has anything to do with climate change. It is ridiculous that 'climate change' is being blamed for seemingly everything recently."
"Go back to the 1940s and 1930s and you will see similar storms. There was a storm in LATE May 1947 that delivered significant snow to the Midwest."
The storm Rayno is referring to dropped 8 inches of snow on Cherokee, Iowa, and as much as 10 inches on Gays Mills, Wis.
Other ******** users chimed in on the climate change debate, which AccuWeather.com will continue to address later next week by allowing expert climatologists to weigh in on both sides of the issue.
Ron Koch: "Hey, they only bring up global warming when they have current data to support the lie."
Sam Mulligan: "There is a difference between WEATHER and CLIMATE. weather is over a short period of time, climate is long term. hence the name: CLIMATE change."
Robert Gould: "Sam Mulligan- Weather actually is climate since climate is merely the sum of all weather events over a given period."
Brien Murphy: "In the Northern hemisphere we should expect "Global" warming to start soon! Then towards the end of the year into the first part of next year more "Global" cooling. THESE USED TO BE CALLED SEASONS!"
Grant Freerks: "the only thing obvious is, weather is happening. hate to burst your collective global warming bubble but...hey weather happens. W(h)ether you like it or not. Global warming/cooling/change is a hoax. Get used to it."
Hal Slusher: "The sun is causing global warming and in winter when sun doesn't shine so must we get global cooling."
Vicki Sprinkle: "Just proves no matter what man tries to do. Mother Nature will prevail."
Alec Mosconi: "So this will be labeled as global warming...and snow in Florida in the late 1890's was caused by...what? I'm not a denier, but freak things occur all the time and it's not all because of fossil fuels."

 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی



[h=2]Drought in West; Frequent Storms in Midwest, East, South
sosnowski.png
[h=6]By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist [h=5]May 04, 2013; 4:45 AM
Share |

300x140_05031502_forecast-drought[2].jpg

AccuWeather issues a summer outlook for the U.S. every year, focusing on the major highlights of the season.
Most areas from the Mississippi Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast will have more days with rain and near-normal temperatures this summer, while heat and drought build over much of the West.
Many areas in the Eastern states will have good growing conditions with lower cooling bills for the Midwest. Lower temperatures in much of the Mississippi Valley and the east should result in a lower-than-average number of tornadoes for the year. The weather conditions in the West will be ripe for wildfires and a lack of water could become a serious concern for agriculture and some communities.
Weather Pattern in Brief
An atmospheric road block will allow a southward dip in the jet stream centered over the eastern half of the nation and a compensating northward bulge in the jet in the western half during much of the summer. (The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds high in the atmosphere that guides weather systems along. During the summer it often marks the dividing line between hot air and relatively cooler air).
Conditions will change over time in parts of the nation.
590x393_04302052_summerhighlightsfinal.jpg

Below are some of the highlights of the summer grouped into weather regimes.
Abundant Sunshine for New England, New York State
During the first part of the summer, a path frequently taken by thunderstorms is likely to set up from the Great Lakes to the lower mid-Atlantic. This will leave a zone of largely storm-free conditions and warmth by way of plentiful sunny days farther north.
The warmest and driest part of the summer from upstate New York to interior New England is likely to be June into part of July.
According to Paul Pastelok, head of the AccuWeather.com Long Range Forecast Department, "This will not finish as a top-ten summer for heat in the Northeast, but there can be a few episodes of heat."
In the end, temperatures are expected to average only slightly above normal for the three-month period spanning June, July and August.
During the second half of the summer, the pattern will begin to change. Moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic are likely to come into play allowing two things. One would be more liberally spread shower and thunderstorm activity, which would limit temperature extremes. The second would open the door for impact from one or more tropical systems.
AccuWeather.com will release its 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast on May 15.
590x393_04302053_summerprecipfinal.jpg

Frequent Rain from the Great Lakes to the South
With the exception of the Florida Peninsula, no widespread areas of drought are anticipated from the Upper Midwest to the South, including the lower part of the mid-Atlantic.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect a higher frequency of showers and thunderstorms from Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan to Louisiana, Georgia, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which in turn will keep seasonal temperature averages close to normal, rather than much above normal.
Crops in most areas should have plenty of moisture, but in some cases conditions could be less than ideal due to persistent wetness. Flooding problems that developed in part of the area during the spring could continue or expand to new locations into the first part of the summer. Parts of the middle-Atlantic coast that were teetering on abnormally dry conditions from the spring are likely to trend wetter.
A prevailing northwest flow associated with the jet stream will raise the risk of complexes of severe thunderstorms. Sometimes these will swing from the Upper Midwest to the mid-Atlantic and other occasions the complexes could turn more toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the Deep South. The greatest threats would be from damaging wind gusts, hail and flash flooding.
A slight pattern change is likely later in the season. Somewhat less frequent rainfall is likely during the second half of the summer over the Midwest, but not to the point of returning widespread drought.
Rainfall during part of the spring over the Florida Peninsula will only help in the very short-term. Until the pattern shifts a bit later on, drought conditions continuing over the Peninsula will result in an elevated brush fire threat and concerns for agriculture ranging from citrus crops and vegetables to livestock grazing lands through much of June.
In the Southern states, it is possible the northwest flow of air could be disrupted long enough during the first part of the summer for impact from a tropical system.
Later in the summer, the frequency of storms from the northwest will diminish with a more typical flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic setting up over the South. Not only would this bring rainfall to the Florida Peninsula and continue thunderstorm activity in the South in general, but it would increase the chance for direct impact from one or more tropical systems from the central Gulf Coast through the Atlantic Coast.
590x393_05011344_2013juneaugtemps.jpg

Drought Worsens, Expands in the West
As much of the eastern half of the nation has cooler and wetter conditions relative to last summer, the West will bear the brunt of this summer's drought and heat.
"The core of drought and heat will build west of the Continental Divide to California during the first part of the summer, then will expand northward as the season progresses," Pastelok said.
A lack of snowfall this past winter and a lack of rain this summer, could lead to serious water resource problems.
While drought, heat and wildfire issues are expected to be far-reaching in the West as the summer progresses, the heavily populated and major agricultural state of California could be at the center of drought-related issues ranging from water problems to wildfires. Some water for agriculture use was already being cut back to start the spring.
The monsoon is forecast to become active from West Texas to the California and southern Nevada deserts beginning during the middle and latter part of the summer. However, farther north, the moisture supply will be very limited.
Many of the thunderstorms will have little or no rainfall, especially farther away from the flow of tropical moisture from Mexico. When combined with the expected heat and dryness, an above-average wildfire season is likely. Fires could be just as much of a problem in Washington, Idaho and Montana as they are in California, Arizona and New Mexico.
"The Northwest will trend drier and warmer much faster, when compared to last summer," Pastelok said.
Great Plains, Texas Caught in the Middle
A very challenging area to forecast for this summer is the swath from Texas to North Dakota.
Late-winter and early spring storms have delivered moisture from the northern and central Rockies to part of the southern Plains.
Early this summer, like an echoing effect from the spring, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are projected to be more frequent than last summer from the Dakotas to eastern parts of the southern Plains and perhaps part of northeastern Texas.
However, heat and dryness could build eastward later in the summer throughout the Plains.
"If there is going to be impact in Texas from a tropical system during June, July and August, it would probably be June rather than August," Pastelok said.
A large area of high pressure is likely to get so strong in the West that its influence would tend to keep tropical systems away from the northwestern shores of the Gulf of Mexico.
The weather patterns suggested in this article represent a greatly simplified version of what is expected to unfold. Effects at the local level are beyond the scope of this analysis. Regional and sub-regional impact stories will follow on AccuWeather.com.
 

mohammadsadat

کاربر ويژه
ابرها کاملاً سفیدن
اینجا از ساعت 11 که دوباره بارندگی شروع شد نزدیک 20 م م باریده
جنوب استان بارش ندارن فکر کنم بارش داره به سمت نقاط شمالی تر میره
 

arashz

مدیر بخش هواشناسی


درود آرش جان

رسیدن بخیر

نه اونقدر قوی نمیشه و بنظر میرسه ما از تاریخ یکشنبه هفته آینده با سامانه جدیدی مواجه خواهیم بود و ایندفعه دیگه باید نوبت نیمه شمالی کشور باشه:گل:

ممنونم امیرمحسن عزیز

امیدوارم اینطور باشه، راستش دیروز همین که از اصفهان زدیم بیرون هوا منقلب شده و بارون خوبی اومده! ولی هرچقدر به سمت شمال میومدم تاثیر پرفشار بیشتر مشخص میشد.

با پیشبینی هائی که گذاشتید به نظر میاد امسال، سال طوفانهای بسیار شدید در میانه آمریکا باشه.
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آرش جان

اقلیم شناسان آمریکایی اعتقادشون بر این هست که از سال 2011، وارد یک دوره زمانی شدیم که فراوانی وقوع ترنادوها به عنوان یک رکورد تاریخی به کمترین میزان خودش رسیده!!!!!!!!!!!!!


U.S. Sees Record-Low Tornadoes and Tornado Deaths
  • Published: May 3rd, 2013 , Last Updated: May 3rd, 2013

repostus_bttn_shrt_embed.png


By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
Just two years after the U.S. experienced one of the deadliest and busiest tornado seasons on record, it appears that Mother Nature has done a complete reversal, setting an apparent record for the fewest tornadoes during any 12-month period, going all the way back to 1954.
The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Okla., estimates that, between May 2012 and April 2013, there were just 197 tornadoes ranked EF-1 or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita scale. That beats the previous 12-month low, which was 247 tornadoes from June 1991 and May 1992.
5_3_13_news_andrew_tornadochart-450x449.jpg
A time series showing the evolution of the number of EF1+ tornadoes since 1954. The number of EF1+ tornadoes in the 12 months beginning with the time on the x-axis is plotted for every month starting in January 1954 and ending in May 2012, the most recent point.
Credit: Harold Brooks, NSSL.
According to NSSL statistics, the apparent record follows less than two years after a different kind of record was set, that for the most EF-1 or stronger tornadoes in a 12-month period. Between June 2010 and May 2011, there were 1,050 such twisters.
Tornado researcher Harold Brooks wrote on NSSL’s blog that the death toll from tornadoes during the past 12 months was also flirting with a record low, with seven tornado fatalities during the period. That's the lowest 12-month tornado death toll on record dating to 1950, but research has shown that the 12-month period starting in September 1899 may have been even quieter, with five fatalities.
The U.S. did set a record for the longest streak of days without a tornado-related fatality — at 220 days — between June 24, 2012 and Jan. 26, 2013. And July 2012, which was the hottest month on record in the U.S., saw the fewest tornadoes on record for any July.
The drought that enveloped the majority of the lower 48 states during the past year has contributed greatly to the paucity of tornadoes, since the dry conditions have robbed the atmosphere of the water vapor that fuels severe thunderstorms. Other tornado ingredients, such as strong upper-level winds and atmospheric wind shear, have also been missing.
8-1-12_andrew_sasktornado-400x255.jpeg
A tornado captured near MooseJaw, Saskatchewan on June 26, 2012.
Credit: Twitpic/@JeffAdams.
This spring, a persistent dip, or trough, in the jet stream across the West, Midwest, and South Central states has squelched widespread severe thunderstorm activity, instead resulting in record cold and record-breaking spring snowfall. April 2013 contrasts sharply with April 2011, which set the record for the most tornadoes of any month on record, with 358. The weather pattern then, though, consisted of a westerly air flow across the U.S., with low-pressure systems that brought slow-moving cold fronts that collided with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, yielding major severe weather outbreaks.
Since tornado seasons vary considerably from one year to the next due to natural variability, it is unclear that the absence of tornadoes during the past 12 months has anything to do with global warming, just as it's unclear if the 2011 tornado outbreaks were connected to it, either.
Tornadoes are complicated beasts, affected not only by moisture and temperature but also by wind shear and other factors. So far, there’s simply not enough information to say anything definitive about the future of tornadoes under climate change. Studies of how the environment that gives rise to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes may change as global warming continues shows that the number of thunderstorm days may increase in parts of the U.S. — owing to an upward trend in heat and humidity — but wind shear may decrease, which could curtail tornado numbers.

 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خیلی جالبه که اخیرا هر رکوردی که در زمینه تغییرات اقلیمی سر تا سر دنیا داره رخ میده کانکت میشه به دهه 1950 میلادی!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

nojeana

کاربر ويژه
دستت درد نکنه دلم لک زده بود برا رانندگی زیر بارون
دیشب زنگ زدم نهاوند گفتند یه بارونکی اونجام زده
خوب دامنه های جنوبی و غربی گرین بین 5 تا 10 میلی و شمال گرین بین 0.001 تا 1 میلی
و نهاوند 0.9 میلی بازم رفع کوتیه
این سامانه فقط برا جنوب لرستان و شمال خوزستان و جنوب ایلام خوب باریده دیروز و ماشاله همش هم زاگرس دوشیده البته ممکنه این اختلاف بخاطر چرخش و جهت چرخشش باشه
 

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
حال این سوال پیش میاد که وضعیت اقلیم ایران در اون دهه چطور بوده!!!!!

خصوصا سالهای 1954 تا 1956 میلادی!!
کسی میدونه وضعیت ایران اون روز چطور بوده؟!!!! گرم بوده - سرد بوده - پر بارش بوده و یا کم بارش؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟
 

nojeana

کاربر ويژه
حال این سوال پیش میاد که وضعیت اقلیم ایران در اون دهه چطور بوده!!!!!
خصوصا سالهای 1954 تا 1956 میلادی!!
کسی میدونه وضعیت ایران اون روز چطور بوده؟!!!! گرم بوده - سرد بوده - پر بارش بوده و یا کم بارش؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟؟
امیر چان فکر نکنم سن کسی از دوستان قد بده منم 1981 هستم مگه پدر بزرگ ها مون
می شه چند هجری؟
 
وضعیت
موضوع بسته شده است.
بالا