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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام محمد جان
بعضی وقتا دیگه چاره ای جز این نیست !
در ارتباط با وضعیت منطقه ما هنوز همه نقشه هابروز نشدند ولی تا اینجای کار که GFS تا 180 آینده چندان آپدیت رضایت بخشی رو نداشته !
در خصوص روزهای برفی و دمای بسیار سردی که اکیوریت ودر در پیش بینی های میان مدتش برای ما در نظر گرفته ظاهرا یک سامانه پر فشار و سرد با مرکز هستته 1045 میلی بار قرار هست که از عرضهای شمالی اروپا به سمت منطقه ما بیاد و چیدمان و شکل این کمربند پرفشار این بار نفع کشور ما هست و باعث میشه اون سایکلونی قدرتمند که از 20 نوامبر به بعد بر روی مرکز مدیترانه مستقر میشه امواج ناپایدار خوبی رو به سمت کشور ما ارسال کنه و همزمان رطوبت بسیار خوبی هم از سمت دریای سرخ- خلیج همیشه پارس و دریای عرب به سمت کشور ما گسیل بشه.
هنوز باید صبر کرد ولی من امیدواری بسیار زیادی دارم که این الگو محقق بشه:گل:
درود بر هادی عزیز :گل:
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
سپاسگزارم..:گل::گل:
انشاالله ک الگوی مورد نظر محقق بشه..
انشاالله ک الگوی مورد نظر محقق بشه..
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
بله همونطور ک استاد امیرمحسن هم گفتن آبدیت جدید جی اف اس واسه ما زیاد خوب نبود...به امیدخدا از آبدیت های بعدی شاهد پیش بینی بارش واسه ی منطقه ما هم باشیم...
درود بر امیر محسن:گل:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-11-2013
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 10 NOVEMBER, 2013 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 10 NOVEMBER, 2013.
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10THTH NOVEMBER 2013 NEAR LATITUDE 8.00N AND LONGITUDE 51.00E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTH OF RAS BINNAH, SOMALIA, 590 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 2430 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINICOY (43369). THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOMALIA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 8.20 0 N AROUND 0000 UTC OF 11THTH NOVEMBER 2013.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUD WITH EMBEDED INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 5.00N AND 11.00N AND WEST OF LONG 53.00E AND ADJOINING SOMALIA. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -700C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
REMARKS:
SOCOTRA ISLAND REPORTED MSLP OF 1007 HPA AND SURFACE WIND OF 090/26 KNOTS AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 140N AND IS PROVIDING POLEWARD OUT FLOW. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONGWITH LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAVE RAMAINED SAME DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXMIMU IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR. THE SEA AREA CLOSE TO SOMALIA COAST IS COLDER AND OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (LOW TO MODERATE). AS THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY ENTERED COLDER SEA AND INTERACTING WITH THE LAND SURFACE, THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND GRADUALLY DECREASES. IMD’S DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS GRADUAL WEAKNING OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS NWP AND DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. BAY OF BENGAL:
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL PERSISTS. IT MAY BE WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HRS. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN ISLANDS & SOUTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL BAY
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
راهنمای سیمبل های هواشناسی:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
144 ساعت آینده:
180 ساعت آینده:
180 ساعت آینده:
ایناهم هست استاد
قشنگ هست ولی از اروپا چیزی دیده نمیشه
[h=4]Mashhad Forecast
| The report was made 0 minutes ago, at 17:09 UTC |
| Forecast valid from 10 at 18 UTC to 11 at 24 UTC |
| Wind 12 kt from east |
| Visibility 6000 m |
| Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft Scattered clouds at a height of 8000ft |
| Becoming from 11 at 01 UTC to 11 at 03 UTC |
| Visibility 3000 m |
| haze |
| Becoming from 11 at 06 UTC to 11 at 08 UTC |
| Visibility 7000 m |
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
مقایسه آبهای قابل بارش در امروز با روز 26 نوامبر 2013
26 نوامبر:
26 نوامبر:
26 نوامبر چه خبره!!!
alirezamousavi
New member
سایت accuواقعا مهشر کرده اقا محسن با توجه این اپدیت ها وتحقیق شما ایا ما در ابان در مشهد شاهد برف خواهیم بود یا اولین برف در چه زمانی میاد؟
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=5]Good morning. Attached is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Sunday. Solar activity again reached high levels with an X1 solar flare detected around sunspot 1890. The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with a velocity of 1012 km/s and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 350 solar flux units (sfu). A coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery and appears to have an Earth directed component. There remains a lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery following the flare, so I will provide a further update regarding the CME once more data is available. All other regions remain fairly stable. Region 1887 continues to decay as it rotates towards the northwest limb. Region 1891 located in the southwest quadrant is now spotless. New sunspot 1895 was numbered after rotating into view off the southeast limb. Stay tuned to
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
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