هواشناسی ژاپن:
April 21, 2014 (notes updated April 30, 2014)
ENSO forecast: Present condition similar to El Nino Modoki will evolve into El Nino, which will reach its height in late boreal summer and then remain at least through winter.
Indian Ocean forecast: A weak negative IOD is predicted as an ensemble average for the tropical Indian Ocean from summer to fall in 2014. However, we need to be careful about this prediction because the prediction plume is spread rather widely.
Regional forecast: Most part of Europe, North Africa, Middle East, western-central Russia, India, northern China, Southeastern Asia and western U.S. will experience a warmer-than-normal summer owing to the development of El Niño. In contrast, southern China, most parts of Canada, eastern U.S. and Japan will experience a cooler summer. This, however, may depend on the zonal location of the peak SST anomaly. In the boreal fall, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, most parts of China, Korea, Mexico, and western U.S. will be in a warmer-than-normal condition, whereas most parts of Europe, northern Russia, central-eastern U.S., Canada, and southern Japan will be in a colder-than-normal condition.
The Maritime Continent in Asia, India, and Caribbean countries will be in a drier-than-normal condition in the boreal summer and fall owing to the El Niño. Above normal precipitation is expected in Japan in summer because of the active and somewhat prolonged Baiu season. Drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the eastern part of Australia in the austral fall and winter.
In the Southern Hemisphere, from a seasonally averaged viewpoint, southern region of South Africa and West Australia will experience cooler-than-normal condition in the austral winter, while southern African region and most parts of Brazil will be in a warmer-than-normal condition. In the austral spring, most parts of the Southern Hemisphere will be in a warmer-than-normal condition except for the South Africa.