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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی

وضعیت
موضوع بسته شده است.
س

سیبری

کاربر ويژه
Amir Mohsen گفت:
جی اف اس تا 102 ساعت آینده:

14050818_2_0412.gif



14050818_2_0412.gif
کلیک کنید تا باز شود...

کاش پیک بارش بالاتر بود
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این تازه پیش بینی ساعت 15:00 یو تی سی هست و گرنه مثلا کیپش خیلی بالاتر بوده


yuro7f0yj0glz4ln2uz8.jpg

Amir Mohsen گفت:


محسن جان

کیپش بالاتر از 700 هست و مسلما داره تگرگ میباره


Large hail when freezing level >675 mb

High CAPE means storms will build vertically very quickly

 Large hail requires very large CAPE values.
کلیک کنید تا باز شود...
 
H

heaven1

مدیر بخش هواشناسی
[h=4]Birjand Current weather observation
The report was made 4 minutes ago, at 16:30 UTC
Wind calm
Temperature 13°C
Humidity 88%
Pressure 1016 hPa
Visibility 4500 m
Scattered clouds at a height of 610m
Broken clouds at a height of 914 m
Overcast at a height of 2438 m
mist
 
D

DR WHO

کاربر ويژه
​After a record year in the Midwest & over on the East Coast, El Nino will have a huge impact going into the 2014-2015 winter season. The biggest influence will be in the South as the southern jet and El Nino produce a few big time winter storms with snow and ice. The key to the entire winter will be the intensity of the now trending El Nino. The trend would be to a moderate to perhaps storng El Nino and depending on where you live this will have an small or large impact on your winter forecast.​


CLICK HERE FOR EL NINO WATCH 2014-2015


GET YOUR HOMETOWN WINTER OUTLOOK


(200 CITIES & TOWNS)


There have been 19 El Nino years and of those 15 have been either weak or strong. The graphic below indicates snowy winters when El Nino is weak. When we have a strong El Nino the snow is typically below normal. The blue bars heading upward indicate 0% to 50% above normal snowfall for a good number of the weak El Nino years. The green bars show a 0% to 50% below normal snowfall and most come on the lower snowfall years.









Weak El Nino (8 yrs) Moderate El Nino (4 yrs) Strong El Nino (7 yrs)





EL NINO ARRIVES IN 2014
El Nino is trending upward and looks to arrive mid to late summer. The real impact will be this winter and it will depend on how strong the El Nino becomes after November. Here is the latest:
















The last El Nino worldwide was 2009 and it was a moderate El Nino. We here at Liveweatherblogs feel this will be another moderate El Nino winter. So what does that mean for my hometown for snow? The answer is not all that simple but here is what the statistics show:





Moderate El Nino's typically bring below normal snowfall for the Upper Midwest Cities like Chicago (-27%) Minneapolis (-39%) but near normal near St Louis (+16%). The Rockies tend to get an average winter with a moderate El Nino at Denver (+8%) and above average snowfall in the Southwest Flagstaff AZ (+30%). New England gets a decent winter with abundant snowfall in Boston (+31%) and Concord NH (+19%). The Cities along the Mid Atlantic also get a nice snowy winter during moderate El Nino year with Baltimore (+50%) and Philadelphia (+10%).





El Nino continues to make its mark to fall and winter and the latest information just in shows an increase in our chances of a moderate to strong El Nino this winter. The chance is now at 66% and continues to show a rise in that direction.


EL NINO WINTER 2014-2015
We here at Liveweatherblogs.com are pretty confident of an El Nino this fall and winter but the bigger question may be weak, moderate or strong? Past history is leaning to a moderate






The trend is upward and we have pretty much ruled out a La Nina Winter come December. We did have a trend like this back in 2012 but that was not as high as the 66% chance now projected.






COULD EL NINO BE A FAKE ONCE AGAIN?
The consensus for El Nino Southern Oscillation is getting a bit better but does our now warming ocean send a false signal to the El Nino models? Could some of the modeling be jumping the gun too early on El Nino? I am gonna lean against a few experts and go with the real deal this winter but maybe not a strong El Nino just yet. Below is the warming of the oceans vs. the actual model data projections.






The diagram would indicate the modeling and future forecasts 6 months ahead outstrip the actual data. This graph shows us that this has been an occasional problem since 1985 and an increased problem since 1997. Some would argue that the early signs of climate change are making it tougher and tougher to detect a true El Nino more than 3 months away. If this is true than the 66% chance on the model may be off once again. We are sticking with an El Nino this winter for several reasons. From a statitical standpoint we are due for a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino.


OCEAN TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE






The ocean temperatures at the top of the first few hundred feet is on the rise, yet another sign of El Nino in the near future. We still don't have all the pieces of the El Nino puzzle but some are starting to emerge for a better outlook.


WEAK, MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO


Our forecast is leaning to a moderate to stromg El Nino this winter and our target is a strong El Nino indicated by the chart below. It's still early in the game, 6-9 months away from a real outcome but the signs are starting to surface. Check back for a complete update in Mid May.









THE WINTER FACTORS OF 2014-2015









The overall idea this winter is to keep most of the snow in the Northeast and New England in the East. The Ohio Valley will have a near normal winter as far as snowfall and the Midwest will miss out on the big snow like last winter. The Great Plains will also see a lower than average winter for snow. The biggest snow drought will be in the Pacific Northwest with only 50% of the normal snowfall. If you ski or snowboard in the Rockies and Southern California oh you are in for a good winter. Denver could be in the middle of a major snow pattern and this would extend to the New Mexico, Colorado, Utah and Arizona Mountains.






The South will see ice again this winter and that includes Atlanta, Birmingham and Memphis. An active jet stream is expect so throw in a few severe weather events in January and February esp. in Florida and Texas. Overall snowfall will be down nationwide and nowhere near the record winter of 2013-2014. California still looks to benefit the most from a wet and wild El Nino and jet stream come this winter.






Temperatures will be much warmer this winter than the icebox of last winter with the biggest change in the Midwest. The Pacific Northwest will be warmer than normal and this will impact the rainfall and snowpack across many states. The Desert Southwest and Southern California will see above average cloud cover along with abundant snowfall and rain so expect things to be on the cooler side as far as temps go. The South will be warmer as numerous Gulf of Mexico systems bring in warm moisture tropical air almost anytime througout the winter. The Ohio Valley sits about average for temps and the Midwest will be slighty above average with temps esp. in the first half of winter. The East and New England will sit close to normal overall but the winter will have a split personality with a warm start and cold finish. So there you have it the Winter Outlook 2014-2015 from the staff meteorologists here at Liveweatherblogs.com.
 
H

hasan1

کاربر ويژه
Amir Mohsen گفت:


محسن جان

کیپش بالاتر از 700 هست و مسلما داره تگرگ میباره


Large hail when freezing level >675 mb

High CAPE means storms will build vertically very quickly

 Large hail requires very large CAPE values.
کلیک کنید تا باز شود...

درود بر همه دوستان و کارشناسان عزیز

بیرجند پتانسیل بارش تگرگ خیلی بالایی داره. من خودم یه بار تگرگ وحشتناکی رو در نزدیکی شهر بیرجند شاهد بودم!
 
H

hasan1

کاربر ويژه
دوستان برای وضعیت اسفناک کمبود بارش برای ما دعا کنید.
متاسفانه تا الان یکی از بدترین بهارهای چندین سال اخیر رو داریم پشت سرمیگذاریم.:ناراحت:

می دونم وضع خراسان ها هم از ما بهتر نیست اما اگر تابستون بخواد گرمتر از نرمال باشه قطع آب و برق کمترین چیزی هست که باهاش مواجه میشیم!
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
الان ساعت 17:25 دقیقه UTC هست و طبق خروجی آپدیت جدید نرم افزار در ساعت 18:00 UTC وضعیت بارش به شرح ذیل خواهد بود:

kprh55f3nqy1nhdt0v0t.jpg
 
H

hasan1

کاربر ويژه
وزیر نیرو: منابع آبی به شرایط بحرانی رسید

وی با بیان اینکه ایران در یک منطقه خشک و نیمه خشک قرار گرفته است، اظهار کرد: متاسفانه در 10 سال گذشته شاهد بودیم که متوسط بارش از 250 به 242 میلی‌متر در سال کاهش یافته و با مسائل بسیار جدی در موضوع آب مواجه هستیم. همچنین در نتیجه خشکسالی‌های پی در پی مجموع منابع آب تجدیدشونده کشور که 130 میلیارد متر مکعب برآورد می‌شد به 120 میلیارد متر مکعب کاهش یافته است.

وزیر نیرو تصریح کرد: در اوایل انقلاب میزان آب تجدیدشونده به ازای هر فرد 4000 متر مکعب در سال بود که در حال حاضر این میزان با توجه به افزایش جمعیت موجب شده برآورد آبی به 1600 متر مکعب کاهش یابد. همان‌طور که می‌دانیم مطابق برآورد بین‌المللی، کشورهایی که به لحاظ جمعیت میزان آب تجدیدشونده‌شان از 1600 متر مکعب کمتر باشد کشورهای دارای تنش آبی هستند و آن مناطق وارد بحران آبی خواهند شد.

وی با اشاره به اینکه نگرانی‌هایی برای آب شرب مشهد وجود دارد، گفت: البته 40 حلقه چاه جدید پیش‌بینی شده است و اقدامات اضطراری نیز صورت می‌گیرد که بتوانیم با همکاری مردم و صرفه‌جویی در مصرف آب این مشکل را پشت سر بگذاریم.
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
تصاویر TRMM ماهواره ای بارش در حال حاضر وضعیت رو اینطوری نشون میدن:
dw8nxzljhce6x7v4w8.jpg
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]Time: 22:04 (17:34 UTC)
[h=4]Current weather observation
The report was made 34 minutes ago, at 17:00 UTC
Wind 30 km/h from west/northwest
Temperature 22°C
Humidity 41%
Pressure 1014 hPa
Visibility 10 km or more
Few clouds at a height of 1067 m , Cumulonimbus.
Few clouds at a height of 1219 m
Broken clouds at a height of 3353 m

Change units

[h=4]Forecast
The report was made 10 minutes ago, at 17:24 UTC
Forecast valid from 04 at 18 UTC to 05 at 24 UTC
Wind 18 km/h from west/northwest
Visibility 8000 m
Few clouds at a height of 914 m , Cumulonimbus.
Scattered clouds at a height of 1219 m
Temporary
from 05 at 06 UTC to 05 at 09 UTC
Visibility 5000 m
light rain showers
Temporary
from 05 at 12 UTC to 05 at 24 UTC
Wind 29 km/h from east
Visibility 5000 m
rain showers
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سبزوار:


The report was made 35 minutes ago, at 17:00 UTC
Wind 30 km/h from north/northwest
Temperature 19°C
Humidity 68%
Pressure 1016 hPa
Visibility 8000 m
Few clouds at a height of 914 m , Cumulonimbus.
Scattered clouds at a height of 1067 m
thunderstorm
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
از این سیستم هایی که میاد روی زاگرس آدم کیف میکنه!اینهمه ابر میاد رو منطقه ما بعد نرخ بارش رو که چک میکنه به زور به 1.5 تا 2 میلمتر در ساعت میرسه حتی همین قوچان ولی مثلا این بروجرد رو نگاه کنید فقط در یک فریم که من چک در حدود 1 ساعت حداقل 4 میلیمتر نرخ بارش داره.

شنبه هفته آینده»

4surp8ypfmkbuemyvo.jpg
 
A

Amir Mohsen

متخصص بخش هواشناسی
نیروی دریایی خیلی آپدیت خوبی کرده و با این آپدیت احتمال بارش تگرگ در مشهد خیلی بالاست.
هادی مدل ودر بلش اگه آپش بذار لطفا
 
S

seyyedalireza

مدیر موقت
هواشناسی استان گفت که از امشب باید منتظر بارش در استان خراسان رضوی باشیم
بارش مشهد از کی شروع میشه ؟
 
س

سیبری

کاربر ويژه
با دیدن بارش 3 میل سبزوار که هنگام غروب رخ داده به اومدن بارون در نیمه های شب امیدوار شدم
 
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