January 21, 2013 (notes updated January 28, 2013)
ENSO forecast: Colder-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific will continue evolving in boreal winter but will start decaying in coming boreal spring. The tropical Pacific will return to a neutral state by boreal summer.
Indian Ocean forecast: Basin-wide warming in the Indian Ocean will persist at least up to next boreal fall. Weak warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean will develop in next boreal autumn.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, eastern Brazil and eastern-central Australia will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Southern Africa will be in a warmer than normal condition in austral autumn.
In the Northern Hemisphere, northern Canada, eastern US, India, and southeast Asia will have a warm winter. On the other hand, we predict colder-than-normal climate in western Europe, western US, and Far East this boreal winter. Most part of the world, except for western Canada, western US, and northern Brazil, will experience warmer-than-normal climate next boreal spring.
