مباحث تخصصی هواشناسی و بررسی تاثیرات شاخصهای دور پیوندی و مولفه های اتمسفری در تابستان و پاییز و زمستان 1393

[DR WHO]

By Marshall Connolly, Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)


7/23/2014 (11 hours ago)


Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)


The expected break in California's drought is less likely to come.
Bad news for California is about to get worse. The state, wracked with drought, is eagerly anticipating the formation of a strong El Nino event in the Pacific, which would bring significant rainfall to the region. However, the El Nino may not develop as strongly as first predicted.




A sign intended to build public support for water rights for farmers now has a new significance.


Highlights
By Marshall Connolly, Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)


Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)


7/23/2014 (11 hours ago)


Published in Green


Keywords: California, heatwave, drought, weather, severe, el nino


LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - Most Californians are now facing the first, overdue residential water restrictions of the three year-drought that has already devastated the state. Food prices have skyrocketed in the state as well as prices on beef and dairy which are widely produced there and require at least a modicum of rainfall to produce.


Wells are plunging to record levels, then running dry as underwater supplies are slurped faster than nature can replace them. Mountain snow, which fills reservoirs, powers hydroelectric facilities and sustains agriculture is virtually all gone and there is too little left to get through another year.


Farmers have been paying attention and left their fields fallow, selling their water instead of crops.


These problems have serious impacts for the state's residents. Tourism, especially along the ski slopes, continues to suffer leaving many seasonal workers out of a job. Without reservoirs behind hydroelectric facilities, electricity production is falling off, threatening the very hot state with the potential of choosing to import electricity or suffer rolling blackouts.


Without water for crops, many fields lie fallow and agricultural workers are without jobs and income. Food prices have spiked.


The dry fields also create another problem, especially in the state's massive San Joaquin central valley - dust storms. The state has not experienced towering dust storms in nearly 40 years, but such storms can rip up topsoil and ruin fields, damage property and even kill. These storms are likely in the fall when temperatures in the Great Basin can drop and storms approach the Pacific Northwest, creating powerful pressure gradients that fuel winds channeled down the valley.


In fact, giver the macro-meteorological conditions, such a storm can almost be expected.


Californians have been in a state of denial about the drought for some time. Droughts of a few years duration aren't unheard of, but longer droughts are rare although they have happened historically.




A satellite image of California in July 2011.








The same image of California from June 24.




Through the spring, Californians have been eagerly following the story of the formation of a powerful El Nino in the Pacific. The warming surface waters are bad for much of the world, fueling extreme weather, but they do benefit California which is uniquely situated to receive most of the rainfall from such events.


Now it seems the El Nino may be weak to moderate at best, despite its initial extreme temperatures. Scientists seem to think much of the heat from the event has already been discharged into the atmosphere. That heat has caused both May and June to be the hottest months on the planet in modern record.


However, July may be back down to more typical temperatures and the saving rains from the moderate El Nino that remains will not be enough to help California because there is another weather feature in the way - a powerful ridge of high pressure off the coast which has been blocking storms from the state, pushing them farther north than normal.


This blocking ridge of high pressure, which has remained in place for over two years, shows no sign of weakening or moving as it normally would. This ridge is also responsible for the dip in the weakening jet stream over the central USA, a phenomenon that is making the West hotter and the East colder.


Despite these significant climate abnormalities, Americans, more than any other nation in the world remain skeptical of climate change. According to a survey by Global Trends, just 54 percent think climate change is caused by humans, a slim majority. A few more agree that we are likely to see disaster if we do not reduce our emissions of greenhouse gasses such as CO2 and methane.


The high number of skeptics has a lot to do with conservative dogma, a systematic campaign of doubt fueled by corporate interests, and yes, even a hint of Protestant theology.


In China where climate change is already being widely experienced, such as during smog events in major cities such as Beijing, 93 percent of the population agrees with that climate change is being caused by humans. It makes sense, since Chinese factories are major culprits.


But the United States stands in contrast to all other nations, separated by several percentage points from England, the next-most skeptical country.


These statistics come at a time when world meteorological data proves that the planet has just endured its hottest May and June in modern history, a full 1.3 degrees higher than the 20th century average. According to NOAA climate monitoring researcher, Derek Arndt "We're living in the steroid era of the climate system. While one-twentieth of a degree doesn't sound like much, in temperature records it's like winning a horse race by several lengths."


Temperature records for every continent but Antarctica was set, although the United States had only it's 33 hottest June according to official reports. The world's oceans were also very hot, especially in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.


Whatever is going on, be it climate change, or a serious, long-term weather anomaly, California residents are in more trouble than they realize. The Union's most populous state already struggles to find water for its thirsty population and their food crops. As those supplies diminish, a genuine crisis, particularly for agriculture, may develop.
---






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[DR WHO]

Sunspots and Sea Surface Temperature


Posted on June 6, 2014 by Willis Eschenbach
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach


I thought I was done with sunspots … but as the well-known climate scientist Michael Corleone once remarked, “Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back in”. In this case Marcel Crok, the well-known Dutch climate writer, asked me if I’d seen the paper from Nir Shaviv called “Using the Oceans as a Calorimeter to Quantify the Solar Radiative Forcing”, available here. Dr. Shaviv’s paper claims that both the ocean heat content and the ocean sea surface temperature (SST) vary in step with the ~11 year solar cycle. Although it’s not clear what “we” means when he uses it, he says: “We find that the total radiative forcing associated with solar cycles variations is about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations, thus implying the necessary existence of an amplification mechanism, though without pointing to which one.” Since the ocean heat content data is both spotty and incomplete, I looked to see if the much more extensive SST data actually showed signs of the claimed solar-related variation.


To start with, here’s what Shaviv2008 says about the treatment of the data:


Before deriving the global heat flux from the observed ocean heat content, it is worth while to study in more detail the different data sets we used, and in particular, to better understand their limitations. Since we wish to compare them to each other, we begin by creating comparable data sets, with the same resolution and time range. Thus, we down sample higher resolution data into one year bins and truncate all data sets to the range of 1955 to 2003.


I assume the 1955 start of their data is because the ocean heat content data starts in 1955. Their study uses the HadISST dataset, the “Ice and Sea Surface Temperature” data, so I went to the marvelous KNMI site and got that data to compare to the sunspot data. Here are the untruncated versions of the SIDC sunspot and the HadISST sea surface temperature data.


Figure 1. Sunspot numbers (upper panel) and sea surface temperatures (lower panel).


So … is there a solar component to the SST data? Well, looking at Figure 1, for starters we can say that if there is a solar component to SST, it’s pretty small. How small? Well, for that we need the math. I often start with a cross-correlation. A cross-correlation looks not only at how well correlated two datasets might be. It also shows how well correlated the two datasets are with a lag between the two. Figure 2 shows the cross-correlation between the sunspots and the SST:


Figure 2. Cross-correlation, sunspots and sea surface temperatures. Note that they are not significant at any lag, and that’s without accounting for autocorrelation.


So … I’m not seeing anything significant in the cross-correlation over full overlap of the two datasets, which is the period 1870-2013. However, they haven’t used the full dataset, only the part from 1955 to 2003. That’s only 49 years … and right then I start getting nervous. Remember, we’re looking for an 11-year cycle. So results from that particular half-century of data only represent three complete solar cycles, and that’s skinny … but in any case, here’s cross-correlation on the truncated datasets 1955-2003:


Figure 3. Cross-correlation, truncated sunspots and sea surface temperatures 1955-2003. Note that while they are larger than for the full dataset, they are still not significant at any lag, and that’s without accounting for autocorrelation.


Well, I can see how if all you looked at was the shortened datasets you might believe that there is a correlation between SST and sunspots. Figure 3 at least shows a positive correlation with no lag, one which is almost statistically significant if you ignore autocorrelation.


But remember, in the cross-correlation of the complete dataset shown back in Figure 2, the no-lag correlation is … well … zero. The apparent correlation shown in the half-century dataset disappears entirely when we look at the full 140-year dataset.


This highlights a huge recurring problem with analyzing natural datasets and looking for regular cycles. Regular cycles which are apparently real appear, last for a half century or even a century, and then disappear for a century …


Now, in Shaviv2008, the author suggests a way around this conundrum, viz:


Another way of visualizing the results, is to fold the data over the 11-year solar cycle and average. This reduces the relative contribution of sources uncorrelated with the solar activity as they will tend to average out (whether they are real or noise).


In support of this claim, he shows the following figure:


Figure 4. This shows Figure 5 from the Shaviv2008 paper. Of interest to this post is the top panel, showing the ostensible variation in the averaged cycles.


Now, I’ve used this technique myself. However, if I were to do it, I wouldn’t do it the way he has. He has aligned the solar minimum at time t=0, and then averaged the data for the 11 years after that. If I were doing it, I think I’d align them at the peak, and then take the averages for say six years on either side of the peak.


But in any case, rather than do it my way, I figured I’d see if I could emulate his results. Unfortunately, I ran into some issues right away when I started to do the actual calculations. Here’s the first issue:


Figure 5. The data used in Shaviv2008 to show the putative sunspot-SST relationship.


I’m sure you can see the problem. Because the dataset is so short (n = 49 years), there are only four solar minima—1964, 1976, 1986, and 1996. And since the truncated data ends in 2003, that means that we only have three complete solar cycles during the period.


This leads directly to a second problem, which is the size of the uncertainty of the results of the “folded” data. With only three full cycles to analyze, the uncertainty gets quite large. Here are the three folded datasets, along with the mean and the 95% confidence interval on the mean.


Figure 6. Sea surface temperatures from three full solar cycles, “folded” over the 11-year solar cycle as described in Shaviv2008


Now, when I’m looking for a repetitive cycle, I look at the 95% confidence interval of the mean. If the 95%CI includes the zero line, it means the variation is not significant. The problem in Figure 6, of course, is the fact that there are only three cycles in the dataset. As a result, the 95%CI goes “from the floor to the ceiling”, as the saying goes, and the results are not significant in the slightest.


So why does the Shaviv2008 result shown in Figure 4 look so convincing? Well … it’s because he’s only showing one standard error as the uncertainty in his results, when what is relevant is the 95%CI. If he showed the 95%CI, it would be obvious that the results are not significant.


However, none of that matters. Why not? Well, because the claimed effect disappears when we use the full SST and sunspot datasets. Their common period goes from 1870 through 2013, so there are many more cycles to average. Figure 7 shows the same type of “folded” analysis, except this time for the full period 1870-2013:


Figure 7. Sea surface temperatures from all solar cycles from 1870-2013, “folded” over the 11-year solar cycle as described in Shaviv2008


Here, we see the same thing that was revealed by the cross-correlation. The apparent cycle that seemed to be present in the most recent half-century of the data, the apparent cycle that is shown in Shaviv2008, that cycle disappears entirely when we look at the full dataset. And despite having a much narrower 95%CI because we have more data, once again there is no statistically significant departure from zero. At no time do we see anything unexplainable or unusual at all


And so once again, I find that the claims of a connection between the sun and climate evaporate when they are examined closely.


Let me be clear about what I am saying and not saying here. I am NOT saying that the sun doesn’t affect the climate.


What I am saying is that I still haven’t found any convincing sign of the ~11-year sunspot cycle in any climate dataset, nor has anyone pointed out such a dataset. And without that, it’s very hard to believe that even smaller secular variations in solar strength can have a significant effect on the climate.


So, for what I hope will be the final time, let me put out the challenge once again. Where is the climate dataset that shows the ~11-year sunspot/magnetism/cosmic rays/solar wind cycle? Shaviv echoes many others when he claims that there is some unknown amplification mechanism that makes the effects “about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations” … however, I’m not seeing it. So where can we find this mystery ~11-year cycle?


Please use whatever kind of analysis you prefer to demonstrate the putative 11-year cycle—”folded” analysis as above, cross-correlation, wavelet analysis, whatever.


Regards,


w.


My Usual Request: If you disagree with someone, myself included, please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU DISAGREE WITH. This prevents many flavors of misunderstanding, and lets us all see just what it is that you think is incorrect.


Subject: This post is about the quest for the 11-year solar cycle. It is not about your pet theory about 19.8 year Jupiter/Saturn synoptic cycles. If you wish to write about them, this is not the place. Take it to Tallbloke’s Talkshop, they enjoy discussing those kinds of cycles. Here, I’m looking for the 11-year sunspot cycles in weather data, so let me ask you kindly to restrict your comments to subjects involving those cycles.


Data and Code: I’ve put the sunspot and HadISST annual data online

 

[DR WHO]

يكى از دلايل كاهش دماى آبهاى زمين

كاهش فعاليت خورشيد

ايا كاهش قدرت النينو به معناى شكلگيرى طوفان در اقيانوس اطلس است ؟!





​

 

[DR WHO]

همانطوریکه که پرواضح و بدیهی است وقتی تعداد لکه های خورشید افزایش پیدا می کند فورانهای خورشیدی و یا توفانهای خورشیدی افزایش می یابند ومی توانند بردمای جو و اقیانوس و خشکیهای زمین تاثیر گذار باشند البته این تاثیرات متفاوت خواهد بود مثلا در جوبا گرم شدن استراتوسفر تاثیراتی بر تاوه قطبی نیز خواهد داشت که باعث تضعیف حرکت مداری و تقویت وضعیت نصف النهاری آن خواهد شد. و در سطح آبها باعث تشدید دمای سطح آبها می شوندو.....لذا در حال حاضر که تعداد لکه ها کاهش پیدا کرده است .لذاازمیزان تاثیر این مولفه بر مواردی که اشاره شد نیز کاسته خواهد شد. در خصوص النینو و دمایی تابستان نیز وضعیت بهمین شکل است. با کاهش تعدادلکه های خورشیدی باید ازشدت تابستان و از شدت النینو کاسته شود. اما متاسفانه ارزیابی مناسب و محکمی از میزان تاثیرات لکه های خورشیدی بر موارد نامبرده در دست نیست.

 

[DR WHO]

El Nino Sending Exotic Species to California Fishermen - 0
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by Clayton Helms
A huge school of tuna photographed from a spotter plane off the California coast


Dolphin? Yellowtails? Huge schools of football yellowfin tuna? Instead of hitting the Sea of Cortez or Cabo San Lucas to target these species, join the El Niño buzz and try five miles off the coast of California.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Service predicted that El Niño would bring these tropical and sub-tropical species closer to the California coast by August, but fisherman there are already finding them within casting distance.


In El Niño years, the reduced upwelling of cold water allows nutrients to sit on the ocean floor. Since the nutrients aren't mixing into warmer surface waters, fish are forced to migrate to areas where they can find more food, according to the California DFW.


"People are like, 'Who needs Mexico?'" Donna Kalez, general manager of Dana Wharf Sportfishing told GrindTV. "You should see our public launch ramp. It's the longest line we've seen in 10 years."


Kalez's fishing outfit is run out of Dana Point in Orange County, where the fishing has been especially productive. One boat returned to Dana Warf recently with 99 yellowtail and several tuna. Another returned with 13 dorado, among other species.


The fishing off the Southern California coast has proven so ridiculous that long-range boat owners who typically send their vessels into Mexican waters are requesting their anglers purchase California licenses. Why sail to Mexico when you can fish locally?


Fishing like this hasn't happened in California since 1997, when the last massive El Niño occurred. Anglers there are certainly enjoying the fish coming up on the ends of their lines, and with 75-degree water, things could get even more exotic.

 

[DR WHO]

While a 'super' El Niño looks to be off the table, what does develop this year might not deliver what many Canadians are hoping for


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Meteorologist, theweathernetwork.com
Thursday, July 24, 2014, 4:51 - As predicted earlier in the year, any chance for a 'super El Niño' to develop this winter has faded over time, and the latest word is that the pattern seems to be settling onto a course towards a weak El Niño by year's end. However, what's developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean now is not exactly what forecasters typically see in this kind of situation, and it could result in some very interesting and unexpected weather in the coming seasons.
Earlier in the year, with the first mention of the potential for an El Niño developing later this year, some predicted that this could be a very strong El Niño, like was seen in 1997-1998. Phrases like 'super El Niño' and even epic El Niño were seen in the news. The evidence wasn't particularly strong for this type of scenario in the first place and it has been getting weaker since. Now, while the signs of an El Niño are still there - with between a 70-80 per cent chance of it developing later this year - it appears as though the chances of a strong El Niño are off the table.


The reason for this is a somewhat unusual situation we're seeing in and over the Pacific Ocean. To understand that, let's first take a look at what normally goes on with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).


El Niño and La Niña - the two 'halves' of ENSO - are caused by changes in how the atmosphere and ocean in the equatorial Pacific behave. Under normal or 'neutral' conditions, the surface of the ocean is much warmer in the west, near Indonesia and northeastern Australia, and cooler in the east, near Peru and Ecuador. Along with this, the atmosphere has a long 'conveyor belt' circulation that spans the entire breadth of the Pacific, with air rising over Indonesia and sinking near South America. Under 'El Niño' conditions, the warmer sea-surface temperatures shift eastward, so that it is warmer off the coast of Peru and Ecuador and in the central Pacific, while the atmosphere circulation weakens overall, and shifts so that there is rising air over both Indonesia and the central Pacific, with sinking air in the east. The figures shown to the left (credited to NOAA and David Stroud) demonstrate these patterns well. When the normal pattern is pushed to an extreme, so that there are unusually cold conditions in the central Pacific, these are considered La Niña conditions.


What's going on this year, at least so far, is that the ocean surface temperatures are behaving roughly the way they should for a developing El Niño. Temperatures are warming up in the eastern and central regions of the equatorial Pacific. Specifically, the temperatures in the central Pacific (what forecasters call the Niño-3.4 region) have been about half a degree above normal, which is one of the criteria for declaring that El Niño conditions are present (but not that the El Niño is in full-swing). That's only one condition, though. Since the atmosphere plays a big part in this, it has to follow suit with the ocean temperatures, or the whole thing breaks down. So far, the atmosphere is still behaving like it does under neutral conditions.


According to Emily Becker, of Climate.gov, "the wind patterns are roughly average over the tropical Pacific, with some slight weakening of the trade winds toward the end of the month."


"There is increased convection in the central Pacific, but also some over Indonesia," she added, "all of which says we’re still waiting for the atmosphere to get dressed in its El Niño clothes and come out to play."

​

 

[DR WHO]

Scientists warns that a dry and hot weather phenomenon known as ‘El Nino’ is likely to hit most parts of the earth in the second half of this year.


Researchers in Germany announced that the phenomenon could spew out huge amounts of heat this year, on summer 2014.


While the menacing El Nino weather pattern appears to be ready to blow massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere, there is a 75 per cent chance that 2014 will be the hottest on record, they explains.


They claim that their method grants them to forecast disruptive El Nino events a year in advance as it correctly predicted the absence of El Nino events over the past two years, according to a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).


The new method was followed by a team of Justus Liebig University in Giessen, Germany including Armin Bunde and his colleagues.


The team observed the atmospheric temperatures in all areas of the Pacific Ocean instead of analysing the water temperature in a specific area of the ocean.


“We hope the forecast could allow countries to make develop better strategies that can counter the devastating effects such as wild fires," researchers stated.


While many experts do not agree with the German researchers’ methods, they say the methods the researchers employed are outdated.


This approach does not look at the physics of the seas or atmosphere, but only looked for statistical patterns in temperature, they say.


“The risk of an El Nino event in the second half of 2014 has increased, but it's certainly not guaranteed at this point in time," said Andrew Watkins, Supervisor, Climate Prediction at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.


An El Nino occurs when equatorial Pacific waters are unusually warm. It can change ocean and wind currents across the globe.

 

[DR WHO]

El Nino will probably develop as a weak event in late summer or early fall in the Northern Hemisphere, according to MDA Weather Services, while Commodity Weather Group LLC said it may be delayed for several months as the warming of the Pacific Ocean slows. Palm oil futures fell.


A drier pattern in Southeast Asia and eastern Australia, and lower monsoon rainfall in India are signs of an El Nino-like event, Donald Keeney, an MDA meteorologist, said by e-mail from Gaithersburg, Maryland. Tropical waters that warmed to near an El Nino threshold about a month ago have cooled and are still neutral, according to CWG’s David Streit.


While the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is keeping an alert for the event, it’s pushed back the start to spring, which starts in September, from as early as July and says a strong one is unlikely. El Ninos can roil global agricultural markets as farmers contend with drought or too much rain. Palm oil output in Indonesia, today the largest supplier, dropped 7.1 percent at the time of the last strong El Nino in 1997-1998.


“Certain areas are definitely seeing an influence from the El Nino-like pattern,” Keeney said in a response to questions on July 23. While he expects it to develop in late summer or early fall, it “should only be a weak event.”

 

[DR WHO]

NEW DELHI: The Monsoon's recovery, with about half of India receiving normal rains and the national deficit down to 25% from 43%, might have something to do with the location of the current El Nino rather than its intensity.


Indicating that the El Nino's much vaunted relationship with the Indian Monsoon is at the least "complicated", research suggests the weather phenomenon's strength may not be the only factor affecting rainfall.


The correlation between an El Nino's intensity and the Monsoon seems weaker if its impact is also gauged by the location of warm waters in the Pacific, a paper on US's national El Nino monitor says.


The conclusion comes at a time when the Monsoon has really recovered well in India in the past two weeks. As compared to sub-normal rains in June, the country is likely to receive rainfall of 93% of the Long Range Forecast (LPA) in July. It will improve a bit further as rainfall of 96% of the LPA is expected in August.




READ ALSO: Chances of El Nino onset reduce to 50% — IMD




The paper on the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) site says that while five of India's major droughts since 1950 coincided with El Nino, the phenomenon did not always spell trouble.


"During 14 El Nino years, summer rains ranged from well below average to average and even above average," Tom Di Liberto writes in his paper "ENSO (El Nino southern oscillation) and the Indian monsoon...not as straightforward as you'd think".


Current El Nino conditions, which has not yet been declared as one, show warming to be highest off the south and central America. The warming is 0-1.5 degrees C in most of the Pacific.


The paper argues that stronger El Ninos did not necessarily mean poor rainfall and suggests that location might be as important with events that occurred in the east Pacific being less impactful.










In 2002, when India experienced a very dry monsoon, the warming of Pacific was located in the central part of the ocean. In 1997, when one of the 20th century's strongest El Nino happened, India was unaffected.


Indian experts are more cautious in drawing their conclusions, saying that the effects the El Nino were far from well understood. But they do agree that this year's El Nino may prove less impactful.


The more dire forecasts with a private forecaster's predicting a 60% possibility of drought seem an over-estimate as the atmospheric disruption that accompanies an El Nino has not occurred.


The Indian ocean dipole (IOD), a key variable tracking the difference in temperatures between two points in the ocean, also remains neutral and this suggests the monsoon could escape major damage on this score.


Di Liberto points out that degree to which the east-west/ west-east circulation shifts in the region of Indonesia is what really matters for the monsoon in India.


"During El Nino events, the upward branch shifts east while more sinking motion (anomalous high surface pressure) occurs around Indonesia," he writes.


If the ocean warming is mostly in the central Pacific, sinking branches of the circulation expand to include India, reducing the Indian monsoon," the paper says.


On the other hand, "If warming shifts to the far eastern Pacific, the sinking branch may not affect the monsoon."

 

[DR WHO]

COLUMBIA, SC — As the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season begins to heat up this summer so does the ocean surface in the equatorial Pacific, and that’s good news for South Carolina.


The warming in the Pacific, known as El Nino, impacts weather patterns worldwide. In terms of hurricanes, “El Nino is our friend,” said Hope Mizzell, state climatologist with the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.


In the past eight El Nino summers – 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009 – no hurricane has so much as sniffed the South Carolina coast. Gordon in 1994 did hit hurricane strength briefly as it did an odd loop out in the Atlantic off the state before coming ashore several days later as a tropical depression that simply brought much-needed rain.


The sea surface in the equatorial Pacific has slowly been warming in recent months. Most forecasts have the temperatures hitting weak to moderate El Nino levels in August.


The El Nino tends to create wind shear over the tropical Atlantic that suppresses hurricane formation in systems coming off Africa, Mizzell said. Most of the storm systems that have impacted South Carolina during past El Nino years emerged from the Gulf of Mexico.


As hurricane season hits its typical August and September peak in South Carolina, the slowly strengthening El Nino is comforting. But, like all historical weather patterns, it’s not a sure thing. Already, a system that formed off Africa this week seems to be bucking the trend.


Also, even weak tropical systems can cause serious problems. In 1994, Tropical Storm Beryl had weakened to a tropical depression as it moved through Georgia from the Gulf of Mexico, but it packed enough moisture to cause the worst flooding in 60 years on the Saluda River in the South Carolina mountains.


In 2002, Kyle formed in the central Atlantic, did a couple of loops, then hugged the S.C. coast at tropical storm strength for a destructive day. It tossed out an F2 tornado that destroyed 28 structures and damaged another 78 in Georgetown County, injuring eight people. Serious flooding occurred as far inland as the I-95 corridor.


While El Nino usually means fewer hurricanes form in the Atlantic, “there’s no correlation between the number that form and the number that make landfall.” Mizzell said. And it only takes one hurricane hitting the coast to cause major damage. For instance, only four hurricanes caused damage in 1992, when El Nino conditions were weakening in the Pacific. One of those, Andrew, devastated South Florida and Louisiana.




Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/2014/07/31/...wer-hurricanes.html?sp=/99/132/#storylink=cpy

 

[DR WHO]

Odds of El Niño Weather Pattern Drop, But Still Expected to Form
El Niño conditions are still trying to form in the Pacific Ocean
Aug 7, 2014 |By Andrea Thompson and Climate Central






The climate impacts typically associated with an El Niño during the months of December, January, and February.
Credit: NOAA
The El Niño that seems to be trying to form in the tropical Pacific Ocean is looking a little less likely now, though the chances of it developing are still double the normal odds, forecasters said in the latest monthly update on the cyclical climate phenomenon, released Thursday.


That update lowered the odds of an El Niño occurring in fall and early winter to 65 percent, down from 80 percent last month. But “we’re still fairly confident that El Niño will come,” said Michelle L’Heureux a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, who puts out the El Niño forecasts along with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University.


If and when the El Niño forms, it would influence weather and climate patterns in particular regions around the globe, for example, tamping down on hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Depending on its strength, it could also drive up global temperatures enough on top of the rise from human-induced warming to send 2015 into the record books.


While above-normal sea surface temperatures in the far eastern tropical Pacific — a hallmark of an El Niño event — have persisted, the warmth in other key surface regions and below the surface has ebbed. The shifts in atmospheric patterns that accompany an El Niño also have yet to materialize. These factors combined caused forecasters to lower the odds.


The updated probabilities mean that instead of a 4-in-5 chance that an El Niño would materialize, there is now a 2-in-3 chance it would, L’Heureux said.


But even a 65 percent chance is double the typical odds of seeing an El Niño in winter, she said.


Forecasters think any El Niño that does develop will be a weak to moderate in strength, though a strong event can’t be completely ruled out. But going from such a current weak showing to a strong El Niño “would certainly be unprecedented,” L’Heureux told Climate Central.


El Niño is the warm phase of a larger cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which includes its counterpart La Niña. Normally, the western tropical Pacific is warmer than the east, but during an El Niño, this pattern reverses. The trade winds that normally blow from east to west weaken or even reverse.


L’Heureux and other forecasters have been watching the development of this potential El Niño since issuing an El Niño Watch in March. In April, the situation looked ripe for an El Niño to form this summer, as a huge plume of warm water, called a Kelvin wave, slid through the ocean and brought exceptionally warm waters to the eastern Pacific. The development drew comparisons to the strong El Niño of 1997-1998.


But while the ocean looked set for the El Niño, the atmosphere wasn’t playing along, and storm activity developing over Indonesia, which normally dries during an El Niño.


Over the past month, the pool of warm water below the ocean’s surface (and at an area of the ocean surface called the Niño 3.4 region) has dissipated, prompting L’Heureux and her colleagues to say ENSO is still in its neutral phase.


The cool-down in the Niño 3.4 region was actually anticipated by the ENSO forecast models, and is consistent with the upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave, when some of the excess heat dissipates. The fact that they caught that slight dip gives L’Heureux and her colleagues more confidence that the models are on target in their continued projections that an El Niño will actually develop.


“To me, that enhances their credibility,” L’Heureux said.


And while she is loathe to compare any one El Niño to another since the record of well-observed El Niños is short, L’Heureux said that other El Niños saw similar dips in sea surface temperatures around this time in the season before finally forming. Of the seven El Niños that have formed since 1990 (as far back as weekly sea surface temperature records go), three — 1994, 2004 and 2006 — saw similar drops, all of which happened in late June and July.


“So there is precedent for this, I guess, sort of summertime lull,” L’Heureux said. And summer is actually a tricky time to get the atmosphere and ocean to act in sync, she added, so it could simply be seasonal effects keeping the El Niño from moving forward.


While forecasters are still betting an El Niño will happen, L’Heureux did say she keeps looking back at the data from 2012, when what forecasters thought would be an El Niño completely fizzled. They called off that watch when the sea surface temperatures were near average across the whole tropical Pacific and the models were “starting to tank,” she said. “And we really haven’t reached that point” with this event, she added.


The models suggest that some of the lost heat will come back, but if the atmosphere doesn’t start playing along and the heat doesn’t regenerate, “the models will catch on,” L’Heureux said.

 

[DR WHO]

California drought: Strong El Niño, which could bring soaking winter storms, fizzling out
By Paul Rogers progers@mercurynews.com
POSTED: 08/07/2014 06:00:00 AM PDT1 COMMENT
UPDATED: 08/07/2014 06:23:17 AM PDT
By Paul Rogers


progers@mercurynews.com


A powerful El Niño that had been emerging in the Pacific Ocean is fizzling out, evaporating hopes it will deliver a knockout punch to California's three-year drought.


A new report from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration decreases the probability of an El Niño -- the condition that occurs when warm Pacific Ocean water at the equator affects the jet stream -- to 65 percent starting in October, down from 82 percent in June.


More significantly, researchers said, the ocean water that had been warming steadily through the spring has cooled off in recent months. Most of the world's leading meteorological organizations now say that if an El Niño arrives this winter, it is likely to be a weak or moderate one -- not the kind historically linked with wetter-than-normal winters in California.


"It's fair to say that it's plateaued," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.


Other researchers are more blunt.


"We're back to square one. It's finished. I don't think we even have an El Niño any more," said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.


"If I were a betting man, I'd say it's 75 percent that we'll have another dry winter," he said. "The unfortunate fact is that it looks like the last three years all over again."


To be sure, California could still have a wet winter to help fill depleted reservoirs, replenish streams and raise over-pumped water tables.


If a steady series of low-pressure systems develops off the Pacific Coast later in the year, that could bring tropical storms dumping rain in large amounts. The trend, known as an "atmospheric river" or "Pineapple Express," has soaked the state in the past. But it has been all but shut down over the past three years as unusually persistent ridges of high pressure off the coast pushed winter storms north to Canada instead.


But the possibility that a strong El Niño won't be there to help is "not good news, especially if we are using El Niño as an optimism index. It's not what we want to see," said meteorologist Jan Null, with Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga.


"It's like in poker," he added. "If you have one fewer spade out there, the odds of getting that flush are less."


Generally speaking, the warmer the ocean water during El Niño years, the greater the likelihood of heavy winter rainfall. During mild El Niño years, when the ocean water is only slightly warmer than historic averages, there are just as many drier-than-average winters in California as soaking ones.


Since 1951, there have been six winters with strong El Niño conditions. In four of them, rainfall from the Bay Area to Bakersfield was at least 140 percent of the historic average, Null found.


But in the 16 winters since 1951 when there was a weak or moderate El Niño, California experienced below-normal rainfall in six of them. There was average rainfall in five and above-normal precipitation in the other five.


Thursday's NOAA report was based on ocean temperature readings from dozens of buoys, wind measurements, satellite images and more than a dozen computer models from scientific agencies around the world.


In April, the report noted, Pacific Ocean waters were nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal along the equator from the surface down to about 1,000 feet deep. But by last month, they had cooled -- and are now half a degree cooler than normal. Wind bursts from Indonesia that had pushed warm water toward South America and the United States diminished. And huge amounts of heat dissipated and failed to trigger weather changes in the atmosphere.


"We've seen very lackluster atmospheric response," said NOAA's L'Heureux. "What typically happens with warm water in the eastern Pacific is that you see rainfall and winds shifting around. But it didn't happen. It didn't coalesce."


As a result, none of the world's major meteorological agencies is forecasting strong El Niño conditions this year. Most expect that Pacific waters will range from 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the historic average this fall, which would signal a weak El Niño.


The last strong El Niño event, in the winter of 1997-98, saw Pacific surface temperatures 5 degrees warmer than normal at some times. That led to drenching rainfall across California, landslides that closed Highway 1 in Big Sur and 35 counties being declared disaster areas.


After three drier-than-normal years, major California reservoirs -- from Shasta to Oroville to San Luis -- are only 20 to 35 percent full. Farmers in the Central Valley are furiously pumping groundwater wells to keep crops alive. The danger of fire is extreme. And last month the State Water Resources Control Board passed mandatory rules that prohibit all Californians from washing down pavement, irrigating lawns so much that water runs into the street and other excessive practices. Violators face fines of up to $500.


If the drought drags into a fourth year, dozens of cities across California will see strict water cutbacks, including rationing, said Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis. The state, he said, also is more likely to put in place rules regulating groundwater pumping and other long-delayed water efficiency reforms.


"It takes big droughts to make big changes in water policy in California," Lund said. "It would cinch the deal if we have another dry year."


Paul Rogers covers resources and environmental issues. Contact him at 408-920-5045. Follow him at Twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN.

 

[DR WHO]

Experts say El Nino is coming, but to what degree?
BY AMY ASMAN




BY THE NUMBERS
These graphs provided by KSBY Meteorologist Dave Hovde show the recent deficit in rainfall ...
PHOTO COURTESY OF DAVE HOVDE/KSBY
Many people might be surprised to learn that, when it comes to weather, the term El Niño actually refers to a seasonal condition, not a huge storm.


“People do the same thing with monsoons; it’s a season, not a storm,” KSBY Meteorologist Dave Hovde told the Sun in a recent interview. “It’s a condition, it’s like fall.”


And just like fall has certain expected weather patterns, so does El Niño—namely, rain.


A consortium of big-name weather groups, including the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, currently predicts there’s a 70 percent chance of El Niño arriving this summer and an 80 percent chance of it coming during the fall or early winter.


But don’t break out the sand bags and heavy-duty rain gear just yet: Experts are also predicting that the season will peak at weak to moderate strength.


“While an El Niño is likely, the strength of it is not certain, and … that is critical,” Hovde explained. “A strong El Niño has a strong correlation to heavier than average rainfall locally, but the weaker flavors of El Niño are 50-50, if not leaning to even a slight chance of drier than average rainfall.


“In strong El Niño conditions,” he continued, “the jet stream pattern comes to California from the southwest and picks up a lot of strength and develops low pressure, which directly intersects [the state] on a fairly regular basis and can produce the badly needed rain.”


And that moisture is desperately needed: This year was the driest year on record for California, according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Experts have called the 2013-2014 drought a 500-year event, meaning a scarcity of this severity only happens once every five centuries.




BY THE NUMBERS
... the most severe droughts in recent history according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) ...
PHOTO COURTESY OF DAVE HOVDE/KSBY
Additionally, a study funded by the California Department of Food and Agriculture and UC Davis finds that the net water shortage caused by the 2014 drought will result in $810 million in crop revenue losses and $203 million in losses for dairy and other livestock, plus an additional $454 million in groundwater pumping expenses. The total statewide economic cost of this year’s drought is estimated at $2.2 billion, with a loss of more than 17,000 seasonal and part-time jobs.


With the nation’s fruit basket hurting so badly, a wet year is critical. Unfortunately, the meteorological jury is still out on whether the skies will deliver.


“Ocean water temps show warming, but atmospheric changes are yet to develop,” Hovde explained. “Warmer than average ocean water temps redirect the jet stream, and then the jet stream dips into the lower latitudes and picks up moisture and comes to the Central Coast.”


The stronger the contrast in between latitudes, he said, the stronger the jet stream.


“A stronger jet stream creates low pressure, or what we call storms here in California,” he said. “But we need to be mindful that a weak to moderate El Niño will create another [year of] lower than average rainfall.”


What we need, Hovde said, is for conditions to strengthen.


“I’d say there’s still reason to be optimistic,” he said. “[El Niño] is like a kid growing up; not all kids grow at the same rate.”




BY THE NUMBERS
... and predictions for rainfall during a weak to moderate El Niño season.
PHOTO COURTESY OF DAVE HOVDE/KSBY
While we’re behind 1997 in terms of atmospheric conditions, there’s still time for things to start changing. But the extreme weather patterns experienced in the last decade do raise questions about climate change and its impact on arid states like California.


“[Climate change] is happening: Scientific groups almost universally align in their belief in the evidence,” Hovde said.


Such groups as the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the American Meteorological Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science have all issued statements in recent years concluding human activities are modifying Earth’s climate.


“The preponderance of data in regard to climate change is hard to deny,” Hovde said. “[Climate] doesn’t impact seasonal or daily forecasts, but we have seen record temperatures and drought.”


He explained that climate “is an after-the-fact assessment” of data, so “we do need some distance from events.”


“It’s become a political football right now, but it’s happening,” he said. “Asking how many people should live in an arid state like California—that’s a legitimate question—or how much water should be used on agriculture versus development. These are issues we’re dealing with right now.”

 

[DR WHO]

Tuesday, August 5, 2014




Weak El Nino Preparing to Surface; Atmosphere Not Responding


The warm water anomalies in the central Pacific look to be pushing towards the surface, possibly inducing the expected weak El Nino for this fall and winter.
















The animation above shows water temperature anomalies along the Equator, on a depth-longitude graph. We can see the extremely above-normal waters pushing into the surface earlier this summer, a byproduct of the Kelvin Wave that traversed the Pacific during this past spring. After the warm waters dissipated, we saw a swath of below-normal water temperatures take over. This put us back to the same neutral-ENSO / Cool-Neutral ENSO situation we've been in for the past couple of years. Fast-forward to the present, and we see a new situation developing. Warm water anomalies have been steadily building underwater around the Central Pacific region, between about 100 to 200 meters below the surface. These waters have been organizing themselves in recent days and weeks, and the eastern-most portion of these positive anomalies has begun shifting towards the surface, and towards the east. It is currently expected that these warm waters will push east and eat away at the below-normal water temperatures. If the warmth can sustain itself and hit the surface, this should be our weak El Nino, possibly more towards a moderate El Nino at best.








In order to actually see an El Nino develop, however, we'll need to see the atmosphere respond, which isn't happening just yet. Shown above are two panels; one shows the mean surface wind currents across the Equatorial Pacific, while the bottom one displays anomalous wind currents. In order for the atmosphere to indicate an El Nino is present, we would have to see winds going from west to east, as part of the reversed Walker Circulation, which is displayed below in the form of the regular circulation.








In the Walker Circulation, surface winds go east-to-west, where the air rises due to convection near Australia. Upper-level winds then push west-to-east, before sinking near the South America coastline, completing the circulation. This is commonly seen in a La Nina event. The El Nino reverses the Walker Circulation, where surface winds push west-to-east, allowing convection to develop along the coast of South America. Upper level winds are carried westward, before sinking near Australia. If we look back at the surface wind current image above, we can see the winds along the Equator pushing predominantly to the west, indicating that the atmosphere is not favorable for an El Nino. We have yet to see if this will change in coming months, and if it may allow for an El Nino to actually establish itself. -

 

[DR WHO]

A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific has generated the usual predictions of drastic weather changes—some devastating, some beneficial—throughout the world.


There’s a 72% to 90% percent probability that an El Niño will form, according to some experts and our staff here at Liveweatherblogs.com. That’s up considerably from previous predictions, but the main question at this point is whether this will be MODERATE El Niño or, more, a powerful warm-water event such as those in the early 1980s and late ’90s.


(El Niño is characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, whereas a La Niña is characterized by unusually cold temperatures. Strong El Niños typically alter weather patterns and can cause severe flooding in some areas, and droughts in others.)


The extent of El Niño’s strength won’t be known until mid August or even September. But based on several interesting signals, in the form of mammals, birds, and fish showing up where they don’t typically belong, it’s looking as though this El Niño is going to be a very powerful event.


The birds, fish and mammels of the Pacific are already heading to the warmer waters and they know the ocean better than the models we use to predict El Nino's.





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So with the trend to El Nino we must now ask what type of El Nino will this be come late summer and into all of next winter? The early call would be a MODERATE El Nino like we had in 2009-2010. That winter bought huge snow to the Mid Atlantic region with record snowfall in Baltimore-Washington DC and Philadelphia. Rain fall from the biggest El Nino back in 1997-1998 bought huge rain totals to the west coast and flooding in the billions in California and the West Coast.

 

[DR WHO]

During most summers at Cleveland’s public swimming pools, the demand for a refreshing dip is so high that lines form outside the gates. But this year it's been relatively quiet, with lower-than-normal temperatures hampering attendance as residents aim to stay warm – not cool off.


“A lot of the pools aren’t used when it is 70 degrees [Fahrenheit] and the winds are blowing,” Mike Cox, director of public works for the city of Cleveland, told International Business Times. Visits to the city’s 21 outdoor pools this summer could end up as low as 100,000, about half the number of visits made in 2013, he said.


Last month Cleveland saw its tenth coldest July on record, part of the pattern of cooler weather that is blanketing cities from east of the Rocky Mountains clear to the Atlantic Coast – and that could lead to a frigid winter weather forecast. Chicago, which normally sees highs in the 80s in mid-July, experienced temperatures in the mid-60s during a recent cold snap. Around the same time, the Dallas-Forth Worth area saw temperatures dip to 65 degrees, down from the usual 95 degrees. In the typically brisk city of International Falls, Minnesota, the temperature hit 39 degrees one day in mid-July, a record low.


“If you look at the entire globe, we’re the only cool spot [right now],” Jeff Masters, the meteorology director at Weather Underground, said by phone from Ann Arbor, Michigan.




Official weather data for July 2014 show the parts of the United States that were above or below normal temperatures for the month. U.S. Climate Prediction Center
The cool-weather phenomenon is largely caused by a persistent dip in the Northern Hemisphere’s jet stream – the current of air that hovers in the atmosphere – which is pushing chilly Arctic air down on much of the central and eastern United States. Across that region, average temperatures were more than 5 degrees below normal during July, a significantly large anomaly, said Dan Collins, a research scientist at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.


In New York City, the jet stream dip is causing an unusually mild and rainy summer. “We’ve had many relatively cooler days ... and not too many hot days,” Edgard Nunez, a weather forecaster at local news channel NY1, said. Last month was the city’s wettest July in five years, he noted, and so far this summer, only four days have reached 90 degrees or above, up from 17 days last year.


Nunez said he hasn’t heard many complaints from NY1’s viewers or Twitter followers. Most people seem to welcome a respite from the sweltering summer heat waves that normally rack the five boroughs. “It gets very difficult here at times” with extreme heat, he said. “We can’t complain much this summer. We’ve have plenty of nice weekends.”


Even so, fewer residents are visiting the city’s public beaches this summer. Visits fell by about 650,000 to 10.3 million visits from late May through July 28 compared to the same period in 2013, according to figures provided by the NYC Department of Parks and Recreation.


Jennifer Francis, a research professor at Rutgers University in nearby New Jersey, said that the cooler-than-normal temperatures are tied to other weather phenomena occurring across the Northern Hemisphere, including the recent warm winter in Alaska and extremely heavy rainfalls in Britain. “We’re seeing a big uptick in all sorts of extreme events, and most of them are connected to the unusual pattern in the jet stream,” she said.


Above-average temperatures in the western U.S. and Europe are also related. That's because as the jet stream dips – creating a U-shaped “trough” – it also hikes up in other places, forming a high-pressure “ridge” that pushes warmer, drier weather toward the north. West of the Rockies, particularly near Washington and Oregon, temperatures hit as high as 10 degrees above normal in early July, Collins said. The hot summer is exacerbating drought conditions in California and the U.S. Southwest, where residents are thirsting for rains.


On Monday, the Baltic region saw the hottest temperature in its recorded history, when the mercury in Latvia hit 100 degrees. And worldwide, the warmest May on record and the warmest June on record were recorded this summer, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


The same temperature patterns could continue through August in the United States, according to the Climate Prediction Center's latest probability forecast:




An official probability forecast for August 2014 shows that below-normal temperatures will likely continue in the central United States this month, while above-normal temperatures will still be seen in the West. U.S. Climate Prediction Center
Masters of Weather Underground said that fluctuations in the jet stream this summer can be partly tied to the ongoing typhoon season off the coast of Japan. Neoguri, for instance, the super-typhoon that weakened into a tropical storm in early July, caused the jet stream to accelerate, which amplified the reach of its dips and hikes and caused a subsequent cold snap over the Midwest.


The storms “put a huge amount of moisture into the atmosphere, and that causes a ripple effect downstream,” he said. Another cold spell is expected for the second week of August, he added, as typhoons continue to form in the eastern Pacific Ocean.


Winter in the central and eastern U.S. could also be colder and wetter than normal if the jet-stream pattern persists, Master said, which “would be a bummer” for drought-stricken spots like California. Whether that will happen largely depends on if an El Niño event forms later this fall.


During an El Niño, warm weather that typically pools in the eastern Pacific migrates toward the west, aided by shifting winds and currents. The water sloshes as it moves, in turn raising the sea surface temperatures in the world’s oceans. The effect would “bump us out of this persistent jet-stream pattern” and possibly bring temperatures back to normal. “If it doesn’t happen, then maybe we’re stuck here,” Masters said.


NOAA says there’s still a 70 percent chance of an El Niño forming later this summer, and an 80 percent chance of it happening in the fall. But the conditions needed to create an El Niño – especially one strong enough to substantially warm the oceans – have steadily declined in the last month. Climatologists say they are increasingly uncertain about what will happen this winter with El Niño.

 

[DR WHO]

With a hoped-for El Niño "sputtering," scientists Thursday said it's looking less likely that one strong enough to potentially produce a heavy winter and pull the West out of a protracted drought will really occur.


The U.S. Climate Prediction Center released its monthly outlook Thursday, with the forecast lowering the likelihood that an El Niño will establish to about 65 percent, down from an 80 percent chance cited just a month ago.


And, the outlook said, should an El Niño indeed form, it will likely "peak at weak strength" late next fall or in winter.


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El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. When one is established, El Niños tend to bring stronger winter storms into Southern and Central California. Robust-enough El Niños have produced some heavy winters for the Reno-Tahoe region, including the blockbuster years of 1982-83 and 1997-98.


When the center issued an El Niño Watch last March, some experts said conditions appeared to be taking shape to produce a strong event of the type that has brought some big winters to the Reno-Tahoe area in years past.


After three dry winters in a row, many folks — from water suppliers to foresters and ski resort operators — were hopeful a strong El Niño might help pull the region out of drought conditions that produced poor winter snowfall, lowered reservoirs, diminished rivers and streams and created explosive fire conditions.


Likelihood of a strong event does appear to be diminishing, said Kelly Redmond of the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno.


"There are signs it might not amount to as much as originally thought," Redmond said. "It's sort of sputtering but they are still predicting one."


Last spring, warm ocean temperatures suggested formation of a strong El Niño but conditions have changed in places, with water cooling.


"That big blob of warm water has been diminishing. It's almost actually gone," Redmond said.


Atmospheric patterns also associated with El Niños have failed to appear, according to the center's outlook.


Even if a strong El Niño were to form, it would offer no guarantee of a big winter for Reno-Tahoe.


"It doesn't mean a lot anyway," said Nevada Climatologist Douglas Boyle. "We've had some big winters with El Niño but we've also had some dry ones."


Recent research by Boyle's office suggests the Lake Tahoe Basin "sits right on this nice band" where storm tracks appear not to be overly influenced by El Niños or their opposite, La Niñas, Boyle said.


Chris Smallcomb of the National Weather Service office in Reno agreed.


"Even if one developed, El Niño is generally a poor predictor of winter weather in western Nevada and the Sierra," Smallcomb said. "One thing to keep in mind is that our precipitation deficits are so large over the past three years, that even with a very wet winter we'd still likely be in some form of drought status next year. So bottom line our outlook for this coming winter remains quite nebulous."

 

[DR WHO]

Via NOAA: “After several months of intensification, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, a sign of El Niño, have weakened. This image, taken from NOAA View, shows sea surface temperatures that are warmer or cooler than then 1981-2010 average, as measured by NOAA satellites. The “tongue” of red extending across the eastern equatorial Pacific is much smaller in July 2014 than in the comparable image from June 2014. “


Many meteorologists thought El Nino was a done deal this year, or close to it. Turns out, like an obstinate dog, the would-be El Nino has balked.
The National Weather Service today reduced the odds El Nino will develop by next winter from 80 percent to 65 percent.
“We’ve gone from an estimated 1-in-5 chance that we won’t have an El Nino to a nearly 1-in-3 chance,” notes the NWS El Nino blog.
The warming of tropical Pacific ocean waters required for El Nino to develop has actually reversed in the past month. And the atmospheric signal of El Nino has yet to emerge.
“As of the beginning of August, we still haven’t seen a strong atmospheric response … and the sea-surface temperature in the central-Eastern Pacific has cooled,” the El Nino blog says.
Although ocean temperatures are headed in the wrong direction for an El Nino event, NWS climate analyst Michelle L’Heureux told Climate Central that of the seven El Ninos since 1990, a June to July ocean cooling event occurred in three instances – 1994, 2004 and 2006 — before warming resumed. “So there is precedent for this, I guess, sort of summertime lull,” L’Heureux said.
Despite recent inauspicious signs for El Nino prospects, the NWS still believes the balance of evidence favors its formation – at weak to moderate levels – into the fall. Models remain bullish El Nino remains in our future, from the NWS CFS version 2 model to its National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).
“All of the (NMME) models are still calling for El Niño conditions to develop,” the El Nino blog says.


July North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) ensemble forecast for Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature. (NWS CPC)


Several of the models forecasting El Nino correctly captured the recent ocean cooling, increasing confidence in their future outlooks.
The El Nino blog reminds us that NWS’ assessment that El Nino has a 65 percent likelihood is almost twice the climatological “norm”. But is also notes that there’s a one in three chance models will be wrong, just like two years ago when forecasts for El Nino fell apart.
An El Nino event, if it occurs and depending on its strength, could help relieve the California drought while favoring a snowy winter in the Mid-Atlantic. While not completely formed as of the moment, it is thought to already be increasing Pacific hurricane activity and decreasing Atlantic hurricane activity in its fledgling state.

 

[DR WHO]

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El Nino 2014 on hold? Odds of development take a hit


The chances of an El Nino developing this year have decreased a bit. The graphic shows satellite-measured sea surface temperatures compared to the 1981-2010 average. (NOAA)
By Leigh Morgan
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on August 09, 2014 at 7:00 AM, updated August 09, 2014 at 7:08 AM

El Nino may not be such a sure thing after all.


In a monthly report from the National Climate Prediction Center, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the National Weather Service and the International Research Institute on Climate and Society, the chances of an El Nino developing this fall have decreased to 65 percent.


Now, 65 percent is still good odds, but last month's report had the chances at 70 percent for this summer and almost 80 percent by the fall.


Despite the decreased odds, an "El Nino watch" continues, which means conditions are favorable for it to develop over the next six months. However, computer models are leaning toward a weak El Nino when and if one develops.


El Nino (or El Nino–Southern Oscillation) is the term used for the warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific off the west coast of South America. Those warmer waters can change global weather patterns.


El Nino usually brings cooler and wetter weather to the Southeast. It also typically decreases the number of Atlantic hurricanes.


Higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to be present in the eastern Pacific near the equator, but they were closer to average in the central and east-central regions, the report said.




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The Climate Forecast System version 2 model shows sea surface temperature anomalies for the El Nino watch region. Each colored line indicates a model run; the black dashed line shows the ensemble mean. It shows a weak to moderate El Nino peaking in early winter, according to Climate.gov's ENSO blog. (NOAA)

The report also noted that most of the El Nino indices decreased toward the end of the month.


Low-level and upper-level wind patterns remained near average as well.


"Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating the onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015," the report said.


Forecasters say the prime time for El Nino to develop would be August through October, peaking in strength in late fall and early winter.


According to Climate.gov's ENSO blog, which does a good job explaining all the reasoning behind the forecast, the atmosphere so far hasn't been affected by a rise in sea surface temperatures. And the sea temperature in the central-east Pacific has cooled.


But forecasters are sticking with higher probabilities based on computer models and forecasts that westerly wind anomalies in the region that recently developed may continue.


Writes this month's blog author, Emily Becker: "While the forecast chance has decreased, there is always plenty of uncertainty on just what will happen. As we’ve said, even a forecast of 80% for an event means there’s a 1-in-5 chance that the event won’t happen; now, while we’re estimating a 65% chance that El Niño will happen, that means a roughly 1-in-3 chance that it won’t."




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Better chances of El Nino beginning this summer

 

[DR WHO]

While El Nino usually means fewer hurricanes form in the Atlantic, "there's no correlation between the number that form and the number that make landfall," Mizzell said. And it only takes one hurricane hitting the coast to cause major damage. For instance, only four hurricanes caused damage in 1992, when El Nino conditions were weakening in the Pacific. One of those, Andrew, devastated South Florida and Louisiana.


Despite strolling into the heart of hurricane season with our friend El Nino, "we always need to be prepared," Mizzell said.


Read more here: http://www.islandpacket.com/2014/08...wer-hurricanes.html?sp=/99/257/#storylink=cpy