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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی تابستان 1393
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
شهاب از بوشهر
کاربر ويژه
امیر حسین عزیز واقعا تصاویر زیبایی بود.:گل:
انشالله بتونم بزودی سفری به مشهد داشته باشم.
اخرین باری که مشهد اومدم 3 سال پیش بود.
انشالله بتونم بزودی سفری به مشهد داشته باشم.
اخرین باری که مشهد اومدم 3 سال پیش بود.
شهاب از بوشهر
کاربر ويژه
وضع هوای چالدران
هوای حاضر ساعت: ۱۹:۲۳
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
هوای حاضر ساعت: ۱۹:۲۳
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
۲۵° c رگبار باران جهت باد: شرقی |
سرعت باد: ۵ متر بر ثانیه, ۱۷ کیلومتر بر ساعت نم نسبی: % ۳۸ دید افقی: بیش از ۱۰ کیلومتر بارندگی 24 ساعت گذشته: صفر میلیمتر بیشینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۳۰° c کمینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۱۶° c |
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اون ابر از لار در فارس تا بستک در هرمزگان کشیده شده
الان مشخصه که لبه اون ابر روی لار هست که داره انرژی خودش رو به صورت باد و طوفانی با سرعت 70 کیلومتر! در ساعت خودش رو تخلیه میکنه اینکه بارشش کجاست الله اعلم!شاید ارتفاعات زرین دشت شاید کوه های شمال بستک و شاید هم غرب لار
وضع هوای لار
هوای حاضر ساعت: ۲۰:۵۳
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
۴۰° c
توفان و گردوخاک
جهت باد: شمال غربی
هوای حاضر | یکشنبه ۱۲ مرداد
سرعت باد: ۲۰ متر بر ثانیه, ۷۰ کیلومتر بر ساعت
نم نسبی: % ۱۶
دید افقی: ۱۰۰۰متر
بارندگی 24 ساعت گذشته: صفر میلیمتر
بیشینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۴۶° c
کمینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۲۸° c
آخرین بروز رسانی: ۱۳۹۳/۰۵/۱۲
الان مشخصه که لبه اون ابر روی لار هست که داره انرژی خودش رو به صورت باد و طوفانی با سرعت 70 کیلومتر! در ساعت خودش رو تخلیه میکنه اینکه بارشش کجاست الله اعلم!شاید ارتفاعات زرین دشت شاید کوه های شمال بستک و شاید هم غرب لار
وضع هوای لار
هوای حاضر ساعت: ۲۰:۵۳
پیش بینی ۳ روز آینده
۴۰° c
توفان و گردوخاک
جهت باد: شمال غربی
هوای حاضر | یکشنبه ۱۲ مردادسرعت باد: ۲۰ متر بر ثانیه, ۷۰ کیلومتر بر ساعت
نم نسبی: % ۱۶
دید افقی: ۱۰۰۰متر
بارندگی 24 ساعت گذشته: صفر میلیمتر
بیشینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۴۶° c
کمینه دما در 24 ساعت گذشته: ۲۸° c
آخرین بروز رسانی: ۱۳۹۳/۰۵/۱۲
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام دوستان عزیز و صیح بخیر
متوقف شدن روند گرمایش جهانی از 15 سال گذشته تا به امروز!
برابر با آخرین تحقیقات منتشر شده از اکتبر سال 1996 تا جولایی 2014 علیرغم افزایش تولید گازهای گلخانه ای توسط بشر امروزی، روند گرمایش جهانی بصورت کلی متوقف شده پس حق با اون دانشمندان مظلومی بود که این فرضیه رو رد میکردند و متاسفانه توسط رسانه های قدرت هایی جهانی بایکوت میشدند!
و جالبه بدونید که سوپر کامپیوتر ها هم مقادیر افزایش دما رو با اونچیزیکه در بازه زمانی مذکور رخ داده کاملا اشتباه پیش بینی کرده اند!
پس با این تفاصیل چه بسا که حتی یک عصر یخبندان کوچک هم در دوره زمانی که ما در اون زندگی میکنیم بوقوع بپیونده!
[HIGHLIGHT]نتیجه اینکه تغیییرات آب و هوایی که ما این روزها شاهدش هستیم یک روند طبیعی در کره خاکی ما هست که در دوران مختلف به کرات تکرار شده و هیچ ربطی به گاز Co2 که توسط بشر امروز تولید میشه نداره![/HIGHLIGHT]
متن کاملا گزارش و تحقیقات صورت گرفته به همراه نمودار های پیوست تقدیم دوستان عزیز:
Energy 2/05/2012 @ 12:39PM 77,205 views
"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data
Comment Now Follow Comments
The current favorite argument of those who argue that climate changes isn’t happening, or a problem, or worth dealing with, is that global warming has stopped. Therefore (they conclude) scientists must be wrong when they say that climate change is caused by humans, worsening, and ultimately a serious environmental problem that must be addressed by policy makers.
The problem with this argument is that it is false: global warming has not stopped and those who repeat this claim over and over are either lying, ignorant, or exhibiting a blatant disregard for the truth. Here is a tiny sample of the false claims, gleaned from various blogs, comments to my previous Forbes posts, op-eds in the Wall Street Journal, news stories, and statements from pundits who spread climate misinformation:
“The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.”
The actual data are easy for anyone to find – they are posted and regularly updated, freely, on public websites around the world. The most consistent, highly respected, and regularly analyzed and updated data on global surface temperatures are available from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, NOAA’s National Climate Data Center, and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Center. [Feel free to redo my analysis using any of these – they all independently say the same thing: I’m using the NASA GISS data in my pictures below.]
All of the false claims take advantage of one fundamental truth about the average temperature of our planet: it varies a little, naturally, from year to year. Some years are a bit warmer than average and some are a bit colder than average because of El Niños, La Niñas, cloud variability, volcanic activity, ocean conditions, and just the natural pulsing of our planetary systems. When you filter these out, the human-caused warming signal is clear. But natural variability makes it possible for scurrilous deceivers to do a classic “no-no” in science: to cherry-pick data to support their claims. They pick particular years or groups of years; they pick particular subsets of data. But when you look at all the data, or when you look at long-term trends, the only possible conclusion is that the Earth is warming – precisely the conclusion the scientific community has reached based on observations and fundamental physics.
Here is exactly what I mean by cherry-picking:
It turns out that 2011 was slightly cooler than 2010 and 2009. Oooh, global cooling? But wait, 2011 was warmer than 2008. Global warming? But wait again, 2011 was slightly cooler than 2007 again. Cooling?
Global temperature changes from 2007 to 2011
No, these are minor year-to-year changes well understood to be tiny variations largely attributable to natural causes.
What about the last decade, as claimed above? The linear trend (the blue line) over the past decade is relatively flat, but in fact it still exhibited a warming trend, despite the temporary cooling forces that are masking the overall warming. As the British Met Office noted this week, in a reply to a misleading claim that the warming had stopped: “what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850.”
Global temperature changes 2002 to 2011
What about the last 15 years? This claim, too, is false, in two important ways: First, it actually has warmed over the past 15 years, and second, the past 15 years are themselves among the warmest in the past 130 years.
Global temperature changes past 15 years.
But even these selections of time periods are cherry picking. What about the entire instrumental record going back 130 years – the period of time when scientists know that growing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere have been piling up? Well, you look at the graph. The warming is unmistakable, despite the year-to-year ups-and-downs.
130 years of global temperature changes
What if we look decade by decade in order to smooth out some of the year-to-year natural variability? OK, here you go. The last decade had less warming than the one before (because of these natural variations I’ve mentioned), but is it cooling? No. Instead we see a continuation of the bad news.
Decadal changes in global temperatures
Finally even this is cherry-picking, because it turns out that the heat imbalance of the planet is not only measured by rising surface temperatures. Scientists now know that a massive amount of the extra heating effect is also going into melting ice (in the Arctic and Greenland and mountain glaciers) and also heating the oceans, and that even when surface heating slows, ocean heating continues. This next figure based on data from a 2011 paper by Church et al. shows that most of the heat actually goes into the oceans, not into rising surface temperatures.
Total heating of the oceans, ice, and surface, showing that most heating is going into the oceans.
[A technical comment for those interested: anyone who understands the statistics of long time-series with internal natural variability also understands that we can see periods of time as long as 10 or 15 years with modest warming, followed by periods with higher-than-average warming – a dynamic confirmed by both models and by actual observations.]
The next time you hear someone say it isn’t warming, or it hasn’t warmed for “xx” years, or “it’s actually cooling,” remember: someone is trying to deceive you with cherry-picked numbers.
The climate drives the weather. People care about the weather – what happens day to day – our weather can bring us joy or misery. It is time to care about the climate as well, because our decisions and actions today will reverberate in our weather for centuries to come. The famous quote from a century ago, attributed to Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner (“everybody talks about the weather but nobody seems to do anything about it”) may have been true once. But it isn’t true anymore.
متوقف شدن روند گرمایش جهانی از 15 سال گذشته تا به امروز!
برابر با آخرین تحقیقات منتشر شده از اکتبر سال 1996 تا جولایی 2014 علیرغم افزایش تولید گازهای گلخانه ای توسط بشر امروزی، روند گرمایش جهانی بصورت کلی متوقف شده پس حق با اون دانشمندان مظلومی بود که این فرضیه رو رد میکردند و متاسفانه توسط رسانه های قدرت هایی جهانی بایکوت میشدند!
و جالبه بدونید که سوپر کامپیوتر ها هم مقادیر افزایش دما رو با اونچیزیکه در بازه زمانی مذکور رخ داده کاملا اشتباه پیش بینی کرده اند!
پس با این تفاصیل چه بسا که حتی یک عصر یخبندان کوچک هم در دوره زمانی که ما در اون زندگی میکنیم بوقوع بپیونده!
[HIGHLIGHT]نتیجه اینکه تغیییرات آب و هوایی که ما این روزها شاهدش هستیم یک روند طبیعی در کره خاکی ما هست که در دوران مختلف به کرات تکرار شده و هیچ ربطی به گاز Co2 که توسط بشر امروز تولید میشه نداره![/HIGHLIGHT]
متن کاملا گزارش و تحقیقات صورت گرفته به همراه نمودار های پیوست تقدیم دوستان عزیز:
Energy 2/05/2012 @ 12:39PM 77,205 views
"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data
Comment Now Follow Comments
The current favorite argument of those who argue that climate changes isn’t happening, or a problem, or worth dealing with, is that global warming has stopped. Therefore (they conclude) scientists must be wrong when they say that climate change is caused by humans, worsening, and ultimately a serious environmental problem that must be addressed by policy makers.
The problem with this argument is that it is false: global warming has not stopped and those who repeat this claim over and over are either lying, ignorant, or exhibiting a blatant disregard for the truth. Here is a tiny sample of the false claims, gleaned from various blogs, comments to my previous Forbes posts, op-eds in the Wall Street Journal, news stories, and statements from pundits who spread climate misinformation:
“The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.”
- “Current pause in global warming”
- “lack of global warming for well over 10 years now.”
- “There is no credible (statistically significant) data that says global warming is occurring”
- “fifteen years of warming, then fifteen of cooling”
- “The last decades “rate of warming” is flat.”
- “Forget global warming…no warming in 15 years.”
The actual data are easy for anyone to find – they are posted and regularly updated, freely, on public websites around the world. The most consistent, highly respected, and regularly analyzed and updated data on global surface temperatures are available from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, NOAA’s National Climate Data Center, and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Center. [Feel free to redo my analysis using any of these – they all independently say the same thing: I’m using the NASA GISS data in my pictures below.]
All of the false claims take advantage of one fundamental truth about the average temperature of our planet: it varies a little, naturally, from year to year. Some years are a bit warmer than average and some are a bit colder than average because of El Niños, La Niñas, cloud variability, volcanic activity, ocean conditions, and just the natural pulsing of our planetary systems. When you filter these out, the human-caused warming signal is clear. But natural variability makes it possible for scurrilous deceivers to do a classic “no-no” in science: to cherry-pick data to support their claims. They pick particular years or groups of years; they pick particular subsets of data. But when you look at all the data, or when you look at long-term trends, the only possible conclusion is that the Earth is warming – precisely the conclusion the scientific community has reached based on observations and fundamental physics.
Here is exactly what I mean by cherry-picking:
It turns out that 2011 was slightly cooler than 2010 and 2009. Oooh, global cooling? But wait, 2011 was warmer than 2008. Global warming? But wait again, 2011 was slightly cooler than 2007 again. Cooling?
Global temperature changes from 2007 to 2011No, these are minor year-to-year changes well understood to be tiny variations largely attributable to natural causes.
What about the last decade, as claimed above? The linear trend (the blue line) over the past decade is relatively flat, but in fact it still exhibited a warming trend, despite the temporary cooling forces that are masking the overall warming. As the British Met Office noted this week, in a reply to a misleading claim that the warming had stopped: “what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850.”
Global temperature changes 2002 to 2011What about the last 15 years? This claim, too, is false, in two important ways: First, it actually has warmed over the past 15 years, and second, the past 15 years are themselves among the warmest in the past 130 years.
Global temperature changes past 15 years.
But even these selections of time periods are cherry picking. What about the entire instrumental record going back 130 years – the period of time when scientists know that growing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere have been piling up? Well, you look at the graph. The warming is unmistakable, despite the year-to-year ups-and-downs.
130 years of global temperature changesWhat if we look decade by decade in order to smooth out some of the year-to-year natural variability? OK, here you go. The last decade had less warming than the one before (because of these natural variations I’ve mentioned), but is it cooling? No. Instead we see a continuation of the bad news.
Decadal changes in global temperaturesFinally even this is cherry-picking, because it turns out that the heat imbalance of the planet is not only measured by rising surface temperatures. Scientists now know that a massive amount of the extra heating effect is also going into melting ice (in the Arctic and Greenland and mountain glaciers) and also heating the oceans, and that even when surface heating slows, ocean heating continues. This next figure based on data from a 2011 paper by Church et al. shows that most of the heat actually goes into the oceans, not into rising surface temperatures.
Total heating of the oceans, ice, and surface, showing that most heating is going into the oceans.[A technical comment for those interested: anyone who understands the statistics of long time-series with internal natural variability also understands that we can see periods of time as long as 10 or 15 years with modest warming, followed by periods with higher-than-average warming – a dynamic confirmed by both models and by actual observations.]
The next time you hear someone say it isn’t warming, or it hasn’t warmed for “xx” years, or “it’s actually cooling,” remember: someone is trying to deceive you with cherry-picked numbers.
The climate drives the weather. People care about the weather – what happens day to day – our weather can bring us joy or misery. It is time to care about the climate as well, because our decisions and actions today will reverberate in our weather for centuries to come. The famous quote from a century ago, attributed to Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner (“everybody talks about the weather but nobody seems to do anything about it”) may have been true once. But it isn’t true anymore.
آخرین ویرایش:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Global Temperature Update – Still no global warming for 17 years 10 monthshttp://thenewstalkers.com/forum/topics/global-temperature-update-still-no-global-warming-for-17-years-10?page=1&commentId=6450411%3AComment%3A1128302&x=1#6450411Comment1128302
نقشه بحران های جهان
تاریخ : دوشنبه 13 مرداد 1393 | 12:17 ب.ظ | نویسنده :
محمود حسین زاده کرمانیسایت زیر نقشه بحران های در حال حاضر جهان ( مانند.: زلزله، طوفان، سیل و .. ) را به صورت آنلاین نشان می دهد.
سایت بسیار مفید و جالبی است. پیشنهاد میکنم حتما یه سری به این سایت بزنید و به نقاط مختلف کشورمان نیز نگاهی بیندازید. در این سایت حتی موقعیت بیمارستانها و مراکز امداد و نجات بسیاری از شهر ها نیز نشان داده شده است.
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php?area=asia&lang=engسایت بسیار مفید و جالبی است. پیشنهاد میکنم حتما یه سری به این سایت بزنید و به نقاط مختلف کشورمان نیز نگاهی بیندازید. در این سایت حتی موقعیت بیمارستانها و مراکز امداد و نجات بسیاری از شهر ها نیز نشان داده شده است.
منبع:
http://iaca.mihanblog.com/| کیفیت هوا در ایستگاه های سنجش - (ساعت بروزرسانی:7:30) |
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47 ماشین ابزار |
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94 خیام |
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40 صدف |
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107 تقی آباد |
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48 لشگر |
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143 رسالت |
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36 ویلا |
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آخرین ویرایش:
| پیش بینی وضعیت جوی وپیش آگاهی کیفیت هوای شهرستان مشهد | تاریخ: 14/05/1393 | ||||
روز | تاریخ | پیش بینی وضع هوا | سمت وسرعت باد | پیش بینی کیفیت هوا | |
سه شنبه | 14/05/93 | صاف تا کمی ابری گاهی وزش باد و غبار آلود | جنوب شرقی تا شرقی سرعت6-3متر بر ثانیه | سالم | |
چهار شنبه | 15/05/93 | صاف گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید و غبار آلود | شرقی تا جنوب شرقی سرعت10-4 متر بر ثانیه | سالم | |
پنجشنبه | 16/05/93 | صاف گاهی وزش باد نسبتا شدید و غبار آلود | شرقی تا جنوب شرقی سرعت10-4 متر بر ثانیه | سالم | |
| پیش بین مسئول رییس اداره پیش بینی | |||||
| ضیاء شهابی یحیی قاینی پور | |||||
از امروز به مدت يك هفته نفوذ و پيش روي جنب حاره اي به عرضهاي بالاتر رو شاهد خواهيم بود كه ره آورد اون افزايش دما در نيمه شمالي خواهد بود
براي شمال شرق اين افزايش دما در حد 3 الي 4 درجه نسبت به هفته پيش خواهد بود و تا حدي ( در حد 1 الي 2 درجه) بالاي نرمال اين موقع سال. در پايتخت افزايش دما (2 الي 3 درجه) بالاي نرمال خواهد بود.
براي شمال شرق اين افزايش دما در حد 3 الي 4 درجه نسبت به هفته پيش خواهد بود و تا حدي ( در حد 1 الي 2 درجه) بالاي نرمال اين موقع سال. در پايتخت افزايش دما (2 الي 3 درجه) بالاي نرمال خواهد بود.
آخرین ویرایش:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
امروز من یک پست در خصوص توقف روند گرمایش جهانی در انجمن گذاشتم ولی نمیدونم چرا پاک شده؟
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام امیرجان
این نیست؟
http://www.iranjoman.com/showthread.php?t=93852&p=492242&viewfull=1#post492242
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام محمد رضا جان
چرا همینه ولی نمیدونم چرا برای من نشون نمیداد ولی الان درست شده
- وضعیت