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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی تابستان 1393
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
حداقل 5 یا 6 ساله که وضعیت دمایی ماه تیر برای ما زیر نرمال نبوده. و معمولا هم گرمتر از نرمال بوده. :93:
و حتی تیرماه 91 هم نتونست این روند رو متوقف کنه برای اینجا.
امسال که به لطف روزهای پایانی تیرماه حداکثر دمای بیشینه اینجا به 39 درجه رسید، ولی بازم از این نظر نسبت به تیرماه های سال های اخیر وضعیت خیلی بهتری داره، و بطور کلی از نظر دماهای بیشینه میشه گفت قابل قبول بود. باید دید وضعیت آماری این ماه به شکلی رقم خواهد خورد.:104:
-- بی صبرانه منتظر آمار ماهانه تیرماه از سایت هواشناسی کشور هستم!!!!
آیا دماهای کمینه...................
اینم از این یکی، همون 29.6، :94: .. فقط تیر پارسال رو 29.7 گذاشته که مال هواشناسی استان 29.5 بود
ولی به هر حال، همونطوری که عرض کردم تیر ماه امسال از نظر دمای بیشینه خوب بود. ولی خب کمینه ها بالا بودن. :5:
امسال از معدود سال هایی هست که حداکثر دمای سالانه اینجا در مرداد ماه اتفاق افتاد و دمای هوای اینجا نهایتا به 41 درجه رسید. ولی قبلا هم عرض کردم که ترجیح میدم اوج گرما به تعویق بیفته و دیر از راه برسه، و باید اعتراف کنم روزهای مرداد ماهی که دمای هوا از 40 درجه بیشتر شد برای من اصلا سخت نبود طوری که احساس میکردم دما حداکثر حدود 8-37 درجس ولی بعد که آمارو بررسی کردم واقعا تعجب کردم. :تعجب2: ضمن اینکه آفتاب مرداد ماه رو هم بهتر میشه تحمل کرد.
و قبلا هم عرض کردم سخت ترین تابستان هایی که من تا بحال تحمل کردم تابستان هایی بودن که گرمای زودرس داشتن مثل تابستان 89 و 90 :48:
آخرین ویرایش:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
The weekly update shows more cooling.
Here is the change in sea surface temperatures from last weeks update:
Nino 1-2: -1.0 C
Nino 3.0: -.3 C
Nino 3.4: 0 C
Nino 4: +.1 C
Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Nino regions continue to take a dive.
A couple more week of this cooling and we may have to change the name of this thread to La Nina watch. The monthly update is this Thursday and I expect NOAA will start backing off their El Nino idea.
Here is the change in sea surface temperatures from last weeks update:
Nino 1-2: -1.0 C
Nino 3.0: -.3 C
Nino 3.4: 0 C
Nino 4: +.1 C
Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Nino regions continue to take a dive.
A couple more week of this cooling and we may have to change the name of this thread to La Nina watch. The monthly update is this Thursday and I expect NOAA will start backing off their El Nino idea.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
This is a schematic of the trends in temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation in the Pacific over the past two decades. Color shading shows observed temperature trends (C per decade) during 1992-2011 at the sea surface (Northern Hemisphere only), zonally averaged in the latitude-depth sense (as per Supplementary Fig. 6) and along the equatorial Pacific in the longitude-depth plane (averaged between 5 N S). Peak warming in the western Pacific thermocline is 2.0 C per decade in the reanalysis data and 2.2 C per decade in the model. The mean and anomalous circulation in the Pacific Ocean is shown by bold and thin arrows, respectively, indicating an overall acceleration of the Pacific Ocean shallow overturning cells, the equatorial surface currents and the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). The accelerated atmospheric circulation in the Pacific is indicated by the dashed arrows; including theWalker cell (black dashed) and the Hadley cell (red dashed; Northern Hemisphere only). Anomalously high SLP in the North Pacific is indicated by the symbol "H." An equivalent accelerated Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere is omitted for clarity. Credit: Nature Climate Change
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-02-pacific-stall-global-surface-warmingfor.html#jCp
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds
Aug 03, 2014
http://phys.org/news/2014-08-atlantic-turbocharges-pacific.html
Aug 03, 2014
http://phys.org/news/2014-08-atlantic-turbocharges-pacific.html
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
چشم انداز بارش مدل اسمبل ecmwf
11 تا 15 روز اینده:
16 تا 21 روز آینده:
بارش تجمعی ظرف 32 روز آینده:
11 تا 15 روز اینده:
16 تا 21 روز آینده:
بارش تجمعی ظرف 32 روز آینده:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آخرین آپدیت نقشه های امروز مدل اسمبل هم به شرح ذیل هست( بازه زمانی 11 تا 15 روز آینده که احتمال بارش در نیمه شمالی وجود داره) :
سلام دوستان عزیز و صیح بخیر
متوقف شدن روند گرمایش جهانی از 15 سال گذشته تا به امروز!
برابر با آخرین تحقیقات منتشر شده از اکتبر سال 1996 تا جولایی 2014 علیرغم افزایش تولید گازهای گلخانه ای توسط بشر امروزی، روند گرمایش جهانی بصورت کلی متوقف شده پس حق با اون دانشمندان مظلومی بود که این فرضیه رو رد میکردند و متاسفانه توسط رسانه های قدرت هایی جهانی بایکوت میشدند!
و جالبه بدونید که سوپر کامپیوتر ها هم مقادیر افزایش دما رو با اونچیزیکه در بازه زمانی مذکور رخ داده کاملا اشتباه پیش بینی کرده اند!
پس با این تفاصیل چه بسا که حتی یک عصر یخبندان کوچک هم در دوره زمانی که ما در اون زندگی میکنیم بوقوع بپیونده!
[HIGHLIGHT]نتیجه اینکه تغیییرات آب و هوایی که ما این روزها شاهدش هستیم یک روند طبیعی در کره خاکی ما هست که در دوران مختلف به کرات تکرار شده و هیچ ربطی به گاز Co2 که توسط بشر امروز [/HIGHLIGHT][HIGHLIGHT]تولید میشه نداره![/HIGHLIGHT]
متن کاملا گزارش و تحقیقات صورت گرفته به همراه نمودار های پیوست تقدیم دوستان عزیز:
Energy 2/05/2012 @ 12:39PM 77,205 views
"Global Warming Has Stopped"? How to Fool People Using "Cherry-Picked" Climate Data
Comment Now Follow Comments
The current favorite argument of those who argue that climate changes isn’t happening, or a problem, or worth dealing with, is that global warming has stopped. Therefore (they conclude) scientists must be wrong when they say that climate change is caused by humans, worsening, and ultimately a serious environmental problem that must be addressed by policy makers.
The problem with this argument is that it is false: global warming has not stopped and those who repeat this claim over and over are either lying, ignorant, or exhibiting a blatant disregard for the truth. Here is a tiny sample of the false claims, gleaned from various blogs, comments to my previous Forbes posts, op-eds in the Wall Street Journal, news stories, and statements from pundits who spread climate misinformation:
“The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.”
I could find a hundred more variations, but you get the idea. These statements are scurrilous deceptions and falsehoods. The planet is warming – an observation noted by every climate research institution tracking temperatures, the US National Academy of Sciences (over and over and over), every other national academy of sciences on the planet, and every professional society in the geosciences.
- “Current pause in global warming”
- “lack of global warming for well over 10 years now.”
- “There is no credible (statistically significant) data that says global warming is occurring”
- “fifteen years of warming, then fifteen of cooling”
- “The last decades “rate of warming” is flat.”
- “Forget global warming…no warming in 15 years.”
The actual data are easy for anyone to find – they are posted and regularly updated, freely, on public websites around the world. The most consistent, highly respected, and regularly analyzed and updated data on global surface temperatures are available from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, NOAA’s National Climate Data Center, and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Center. [Feel free to redo my analysis using any of these – they all independently say the same thing: I’m using the NASA GISS data in my pictures below.]
All of the false claims take advantage of one fundamental truth about the average temperature of our planet: it varies a little, naturally, from year to year. Some years are a bit warmer than average and some are a bit colder than average because of El Niños, La Niñas, cloud variability, volcanic activity, ocean conditions, and just the natural pulsing of our planetary systems. When you filter these out, the human-caused warming signal is clear. But natural variability makes it possible for scurrilous deceivers to do a classic “no-no” in science: to cherry-pick data to support their claims. They pick particular years or groups of years; they pick particular subsets of data. But when you look at all the data, or when you look at long-term trends, the only possible conclusion is that the Earth is warming – precisely the conclusion the scientific community has reached based on observations and fundamental physics.
Here is exactly what I mean by cherry-picking:
It turns out that 2011 was slightly cooler than 2010 and 2009. Oooh, global cooling? But wait, 2011 was warmer than 2008. Global warming? But wait again, 2011 was slightly cooler than 2007 again. Cooling?
Global temperature changes from 2007 to 2011
No, these are minor year-to-year changes well understood to be tiny variations largely attributable to natural causes.
What about the last decade, as claimed above? The linear trend (the blue line) over the past decade is relatively flat, but in fact it still exhibited a warming trend, despite the temporary cooling forces that are masking the overall warming. As the British Met Office noted this week, in a reply to a misleading claim that the warming had stopped: “what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850.”
Global temperature changes 2002 to 2011
What about the last 15 years? This claim, too, is false, in two important ways: First, it actually has warmed over the past 15 years, and second, the past 15 years are themselves among the warmest in the past 130 years.
Global temperature changes past 15 years.
But even these selections of time periods are cherry picking. What about the entire instrumental record going back 130 years – the period of time when scientists know that growing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere have been piling up? Well, you look at the graph. The warming is unmistakable, despite the year-to-year ups-and-downs.
130 years of global temperature changes
What if we look decade by decade in order to smooth out some of the year-to-year natural variability? OK, here you go. The last decade had less warming than the one before (because of these natural variations I’ve mentioned), but is it cooling? No. Instead we see a continuation of the bad news.
Decadal changes in global temperatures
Finally even this is cherry-picking, because it turns out that the heat imbalance of the planet is not only measured by rising surface temperatures. Scientists now know that a massive amount of the extra heating effect is also going into melting ice (in the Arctic and Greenland and mountain glaciers) and also heating the oceans, and that even when surface heating slows, ocean heating continues. This next figure based on data from a 2011 paper by Church et al. shows that most of the heat actually goes into the oceans, not into rising surface temperatures.
Total heating of the oceans, ice, and surface, showing that most heating is going into the oceans.
[A technical comment for those interested: anyone who understands the statistics of long time-series with internal natural variability also understands that we can see periods of time as long as 10 or 15 years with modest warming, followed by periods with higher-than-average warming – a dynamic confirmed by both models and by actual observations.]
The next time you hear someone say it isn’t warming, or it hasn’t warmed for “xx” years, or “it’s actually cooling,” remember: someone is trying to deceive you with cherry-picked numbers.
The climate drives the weather. People care about the weather – what happens day to day – our weather can bring us joy or misery. It is time to care about the climate as well, because our decisions and actions today will reverberate in our weather for centuries to come. The famous quote from a century ago, attributed to Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner (“everybody talks about the weather but nobody seems to do anything about it”) may have been true once. But it isn’t true anymore.
من که از اینکه در اون نظر سنجی بالا شرکت نکردم پشیمون نبوده و نیستم! ..... :خنده2:
حداکثر دمای مرداد ماه امسال اینجا 41 درجه شد، و طبق آماری که از روستای نجف آباد وجود داره تا قبل از امسال بیشترین دمای ثبت شده در مرداد ماه برابر با 40.6 درجه بوده. :104:
در طی 15 سال گذشته روستای نجف آباد 2 بار دمای 41 درجه رو رد کرده،
تابستان 1380: 42.5
تابستان 1388: 41.6
در طی 15 سال گذشته روستای نجف آباد 2 بار دمای 41 درجه رو رد کرده،
تابستان 1380: 42.5
تابستان 1388: 41.6
| 1 | In Salah (Algeria) | 49.0 °C |
| 2 | Rhourd Nouss (Algeria) | 48.8 °C |
| 3 | Hassi-Messaoud (Algeria) | 48.5 °C |
| 4 | Al Ahsa (Saudi Arabia) | 48.4 °C |
| 5 | Ouargla (Algeria) | 48.4 °C |
| 6 | El Borma (Tunisia) | 47.7 °C |
| 7 | Mitribah (Kuwait) | 47.5 °C |
| 8 | Tinfouye (Algeria) | 47.4 °C |
| 9 | Sunaynah (Oman) | 47.3 °C |
| 10 | Haima (Oman) | 47.2 °C |
| 11 | Jahra (Kuwait) | 47.2 °C |
| 12 | Umzamaim (Oman) | 47.1 °C |
| 13 | Kuwait Internationalairport (Kuwait) | 47.0 °C |
| 14 | Sulaibiya (Kuwait) | 47.0 °C |
| 15 | Al-Wafra (Kuwait) | 46.9 °C |
| 16 | Fahud (Oman) | 46.8 °C |
| 17 | Ibri (Oman) | 46.8 °C |
| 18 | Ghardaia (Algeria) | 46.6 °C |
| 19 | Qarn Alam (Oman) | 46.6 °C |
| 20 | El Golea (Algeria) | 46.5 °C |
| 21 | Touggourt (Algeria) | 46.5 °C |
| 22 | Al Ain International Airport (United Arab Emirates) | 46.4 °C |
| 23 | Bubiyan (Kuwait) | 46.4 °C |
| 24 | Abdaly (Kuwait) | 46.3 °C |
| 25 | Adam (Oman) | 46.3 °C |
| 26 | Shuwaikh (Kuwait) | 46.3 °C |
| 27 | Adrar (Algeria) | 46.2 °C |
| 28 | Ibra (Oman) | 46.2 °C |
| 29 | Kahnuj (Iran) | 46.2 °C |
| 30 | In Amenas (Algeria) | 46.1 °C |
| 31 | In Guezzam (Algeria) | 46.1 °C |
| 32 | Iranshahr (Iran) | 46.1 °C |
| 33 | Omidieh (Iran) | 46.1 °C |
آخرین ویرایش:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام امیر کوروش عزیز
اول از همه باید منتظر گزارش جدید مرکز ملی اقیانوس شناسی امریکا باشیم که احتمالا در 10 اگوست 2014 منشر میشه باشیم.
بله تمام احتمالاتی که برشمردید امکان وقوع داره.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آپدیت جدید CFSV2 در بازه زمانی 8 تا 16 روز آینده دمای هوا خصوصا در منطقه شمال شرق ایران گرمتر از نرمال نشون میده و بصورت همزمان آنومالی بارش قابل توجهی هم تا 45 روز آینده یعنی از 15 آگوست به بعد در منطقه ما مشاهده میشه:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آپدیت جدید هواشناسی کانادا:
- وضعیت