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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
و اما این مدل محبوب من یعنی هواشناسی کانادا رو ببینید که بسیار زیباست:
همون 74 تا 80 میلمتر رو تا 144 ساعت آینده برای غرب مشهد و قوچان در نظر گرفته:
خوب بیشینه بارش ها هم در دامنه های جنوب غربی زاگرس مرتفع از کردستان تا دنا ( و گرین هم در همون قسمته البته نسبت به زردکوه تا دنا خیلی کمتره ولی برا خودش مناسبه ) و دامنه های شرقی کمینه هست و نهاوند متاسفانه در کم بارشیه.
من آخرش تو کار این سامانه موندم مدیترانه - سرخ - سیاه - امگا ؟چیه؟ بارش ها هم حداکثر در دامنه های غربی زاگرس بالای 3500 متره . خوب شاید باید نقشه های 500 هکتو رو بیشینه در نظر گرفت
انسان اگر اشتباه نکند دیگر انسان نیست من هم دوست دارم اشتباه خود را بدانم تا دیگر آن را تکرار نکنم.:گل:
اوه اوه عجب چیزی کشف کردم!
آمار ارتفاع برف روزانه ماگدبورگ از دسامبر 1962 تا مارس 1963
دو ماه متوالی بیش از 20 سانتیمتر برف روی زمین بود!!
امسال که این همه روز برفی داشتیم این شکلی بود:
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
سامیار هواشناس
کاربر ويژه
بخاطر شما هم که شده از این برفه پیش رو هر جور شده باید یه عکسایی بگیرم که از دیماه کمتر نباشه
جالبه محمد رضا جان سپاس:گل:
درسته . کلا بین تهرانی ها اون حالت علاقه به شهرشون مثل شهرستانی ها وجود نداره . شهرستانی ها مثل چی پشت سر شهرشون هستن و این حس در تهرانی ها کمتره . البته امیر تهرانپارس فکونم شوخی کرد منظوری نداشت بنده خدا . :گل:
سامیار هواشناس
کاربر ويژه
شب دوستان خوش به امید برف درست حسابی در واپسین روزهای زمستان در ضمن اینجا اوله شب یه نموره بارونی اومد وتمام شد
خیلی لطف داری جناب سامیار عزیز:خجالت2:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Study Shows A Future In Trans-Arctic Shipping
By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
Rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is poised to open the region to many more kinds of ocean-going vessels than it has been at any point in modern human history, according to a new study.
The fastest September Trans-Arctic navigation routes today (left) compared to mid-century (right, showing Septembers 2040-2059), for hypothetical ships seeking to cross the Arctic Ocean between the North Atlantic and the Pacific. Red lines indicate fastest available routes for moderately ice-hardened vessels; blue lines indicate fastest available routes for common open-water ships.
Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: L.C. Smith and S.R. Stephenson, PNAS.
This shift could dramatically increase trans-Arctic commerce during at least a few weeks out of the year, even opening up temporary “supra-polar” routes along which moderately ice-strengthened ships could sail directly over the North Pole, slashing days off the travel time between Europe and the Far East.
The study, published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the first to pair computer model projections of Arctic sea ice during the month of September, when sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum, with projections of future shipping trends.
Laurence C. Smith, the study’s lead author and a professor in the geography department at the University of California Los Angeles, said that even a moderate amount of warming will open the Arctic up to a degree that would have been unthinkable to prior generations of polar explorers, many of whom died trying to find viable sea routes across the Arctic.
For example, the study found that the Northern Sea Route along the Russian Coast, which is already used by ice-strengthened ships to transport goods between Europe, Russia, and China, is likely to become even more accessible, including to non-ice-hardened vessels, the study found.
According to the study, during the 1979-2005 period, sea ice limited the probability of an open-water transit along the Northern Sea Route to just 40 percent in any given year. The study projects those odds will increase to 94 to 98 percent by 2040-2059, depending on how much the Arctic warms during the period.
Meanwhile, ships that have been modified to withstand encounters with some ice floes may be able to sail straight across the pole, bypassing Russian waters and thereby saving time and money, since Russia currently charges hefty icebreaker escort fees for vessels traversing its Arctic waters.
Currently, only icebreakers are regularly able to make voyages across the Pole. Last summer, the Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, traversed the Northeast Passage, along the coast of Siberia, and then took a shortcut over the North Pole to travel back to China.
If sea ice recedes and thins to a point where icebreakers are no longer necessary to reliably navigate this path, the Central Arctic Shipping Route, that could shave up to 8,000 miles off the journey from Shanghai to Europe, slashing transport costs.
The new study also projects that access to the famed Northwest Passage will become more reliable to ice-hardened vessels. The Northwest Passage will likely be most attractive for trans-Arctic shipping to and from eastern North America, the study said.
The Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon.
Credit: antarctica.gov.au.
The results don’t necessarily indicate that the Arctic is going to be quickly overrun with shipping and resource development, as some have argued. But they do suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm in response to human activities, people will have unprecedented access to the previously frozen and isolated region.
In 2012, September sea ice extent plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of satellite records in 1979. The past six years have had the six smallest sea ice extents since 1979, indicating that the ice has not recovered from the previous record low in 2007.
Smith said that whether shipping companies choose to take advantage of shorter Arctic routes during the end of the melt season will depend on a range of factors beyond just sea ice conditions. “It takes more than technical feasibility to make shipping happen,” he said.
Sea ice variability and harsh weather conditions could render Arctic routes less reliable than traditional shipping routes. “In today’s world of tightly scheduled global supply change, quite frankly, reliability matters as much if not more” than travel distance, Smith said.
A 2009 assessment of Arctic maritime shipping found that the Arctic lacks basic services that are necessary for safe shipping operations, including reliable navigation charts. "A lack of major ports, except for those in northern Norway and northwest Russia, and other critical infrastructure will be significant limitations for future Arctic marine operations," the report said.
Along similar lines, sailing along a supra-polar route might cut the shipping distance involved, but the lack of nearby ports and search and rescue capabilities in the middle of the Arctic Ocean would make the trip far riskier than the routes currently in use today. That would increase liability costs for shippers.
For these reasons and more, Smith does not expect the Arctic to quickly replace the Suez and Panama canals, which are the main arteries for global marine transport today. However, a seasonally ice-free Arctic could boost the ability of companies to transport natural resources and goods from northern Europe and Russia to China.
“This is highly significant because it provides a shipping corridor to get those resources to China,” Smith said.
Smith said the study clearly shows the need for an effective governance system to oversee Arctic shipping and set standards to prevent accidents that could damage the fragile ecosystems in the region. “The ice is thinning to the point where it is feasible” for ships to go anywhere, Smith said. “Even the temptation of it in my mind is worrisome because of the sheer numbers of ships that it involves.”
The International Maritime Organization has devised a voluntary safety code for Arctic-going vessels, but Smith said mandatory standards may be needed.
- Published: March 4th, 2013 , Last Updated: March 4th, 2013
By Andrew Freedman Follow @afreedma
Rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is poised to open the region to many more kinds of ocean-going vessels than it has been at any point in modern human history, according to a new study.
The fastest September Trans-Arctic navigation routes today (left) compared to mid-century (right, showing Septembers 2040-2059), for hypothetical ships seeking to cross the Arctic Ocean between the North Atlantic and the Pacific. Red lines indicate fastest available routes for moderately ice-hardened vessels; blue lines indicate fastest available routes for common open-water ships. Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: L.C. Smith and S.R. Stephenson, PNAS.
This shift could dramatically increase trans-Arctic commerce during at least a few weeks out of the year, even opening up temporary “supra-polar” routes along which moderately ice-strengthened ships could sail directly over the North Pole, slashing days off the travel time between Europe and the Far East.
The study, published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the first to pair computer model projections of Arctic sea ice during the month of September, when sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum, with projections of future shipping trends.
Laurence C. Smith, the study’s lead author and a professor in the geography department at the University of California Los Angeles, said that even a moderate amount of warming will open the Arctic up to a degree that would have been unthinkable to prior generations of polar explorers, many of whom died trying to find viable sea routes across the Arctic.
For example, the study found that the Northern Sea Route along the Russian Coast, which is already used by ice-strengthened ships to transport goods between Europe, Russia, and China, is likely to become even more accessible, including to non-ice-hardened vessels, the study found.
According to the study, during the 1979-2005 period, sea ice limited the probability of an open-water transit along the Northern Sea Route to just 40 percent in any given year. The study projects those odds will increase to 94 to 98 percent by 2040-2059, depending on how much the Arctic warms during the period.
Meanwhile, ships that have been modified to withstand encounters with some ice floes may be able to sail straight across the pole, bypassing Russian waters and thereby saving time and money, since Russia currently charges hefty icebreaker escort fees for vessels traversing its Arctic waters.
Currently, only icebreakers are regularly able to make voyages across the Pole. Last summer, the Chinese icebreaker Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, traversed the Northeast Passage, along the coast of Siberia, and then took a shortcut over the North Pole to travel back to China.
If sea ice recedes and thins to a point where icebreakers are no longer necessary to reliably navigate this path, the Central Arctic Shipping Route, that could shave up to 8,000 miles off the journey from Shanghai to Europe, slashing transport costs.
The new study also projects that access to the famed Northwest Passage will become more reliable to ice-hardened vessels. The Northwest Passage will likely be most attractive for trans-Arctic shipping to and from eastern North America, the study said.
Credit: antarctica.gov.au.
The results don’t necessarily indicate that the Arctic is going to be quickly overrun with shipping and resource development, as some have argued. But they do suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm in response to human activities, people will have unprecedented access to the previously frozen and isolated region.
In 2012, September sea ice extent plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of satellite records in 1979. The past six years have had the six smallest sea ice extents since 1979, indicating that the ice has not recovered from the previous record low in 2007.
Smith said that whether shipping companies choose to take advantage of shorter Arctic routes during the end of the melt season will depend on a range of factors beyond just sea ice conditions. “It takes more than technical feasibility to make shipping happen,” he said.
Sea ice variability and harsh weather conditions could render Arctic routes less reliable than traditional shipping routes. “In today’s world of tightly scheduled global supply change, quite frankly, reliability matters as much if not more” than travel distance, Smith said.
A 2009 assessment of Arctic maritime shipping found that the Arctic lacks basic services that are necessary for safe shipping operations, including reliable navigation charts. "A lack of major ports, except for those in northern Norway and northwest Russia, and other critical infrastructure will be significant limitations for future Arctic marine operations," the report said.
Along similar lines, sailing along a supra-polar route might cut the shipping distance involved, but the lack of nearby ports and search and rescue capabilities in the middle of the Arctic Ocean would make the trip far riskier than the routes currently in use today. That would increase liability costs for shippers.
For these reasons and more, Smith does not expect the Arctic to quickly replace the Suez and Panama canals, which are the main arteries for global marine transport today. However, a seasonally ice-free Arctic could boost the ability of companies to transport natural resources and goods from northern Europe and Russia to China.
“This is highly significant because it provides a shipping corridor to get those resources to China,” Smith said.
Smith said the study clearly shows the need for an effective governance system to oversee Arctic shipping and set standards to prevent accidents that could damage the fragile ecosystems in the region. “The ice is thinning to the point where it is feasible” for ships to go anywhere, Smith said. “Even the temptation of it in my mind is worrisome because of the sheer numbers of ships that it involves.”
The International Maritime Organization has devised a voluntary safety code for Arctic-going vessels, but Smith said mandatory standards may be needed.
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
گلباد تهران
تند بادي در راه ست :
تند بادي در راه ست :
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
گلباد تهران
تند بادي در راه ست :
مهردادجان وضعیت باد در بجنورد چطوره؟؟آیا وزش باد شدیدی خواهیم داشت؟؟چون از ظهر به بعد باد نسبتا شدیدی میوزه که با این که پنجره های خونمون دوجداره ست؛ولی صدای وزش بادشدید کاملا به گوش میرسه!!!
تحلیل زمستان 1962-1963
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/for...1962-63-a-special-report-with-times-articles/
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/for...1962-63-a-special-report-with-times-articles/
mahmood600
کاربر ويژه
فروکش کردن زمین در خیابان ولیعصر / مرگ یک کارگر در گودال پر از آب
بخشی از خیابان ولیعصر در حوالی تقاطع مولوی شامگاه امروز فروکش کرد و مرگ یک کارگر را رقم زد.
به گزارش خبرنگار مهر، ساعت 21 و 35 دقیقه امروز بخشی از خیابان ولیعصر ، حوالی تقاطع مولوی به طورناگهانی فروکش کرد. در حال حاضر نیروهای آتش نشانی ، اورژانس و شهرداری در محل حادثه حضور دارند.
به گفته شاهدان در زمان حادثه سه نفر از اهالی در محل حضور داشتند که از سرنوشت آنها خبری نیست و تا کنون جسد یکی از آنها که کارگر مردی است از داخل گودال خارج شده است.
جلال ملکی ، سخنگوی سازمان آتش نشانی در این باره به خبرنگار مهر گفت : فروکش زمین در مسیر اتوبوس های تندرو رخ داده و مشکلی را برای خودروهای عبوری به وجود نیاورده است. در محل فروکش زمین آب جمع شده است. هنوز مشخص نیست فروکش زمین به دلیل ترکیدگی لوله آب بوده یا بر اثر فروکش زمین لوله آب دچار شکستگی شده است.
وی افزود: تا کنون برای امدادرسانی به افراد احتمالی که داخل گودال سقوط کرده باشند از آتش نشانی درخواست کمک نشده است.
بخشی از خیابان ولیعصر در حوالی تقاطع مولوی شامگاه امروز فروکش کرد و مرگ یک کارگر را رقم زد.
به گزارش خبرنگار مهر، ساعت 21 و 35 دقیقه امروز بخشی از خیابان ولیعصر ، حوالی تقاطع مولوی به طورناگهانی فروکش کرد. در حال حاضر نیروهای آتش نشانی ، اورژانس و شهرداری در محل حادثه حضور دارند.
به گفته شاهدان در زمان حادثه سه نفر از اهالی در محل حضور داشتند که از سرنوشت آنها خبری نیست و تا کنون جسد یکی از آنها که کارگر مردی است از داخل گودال خارج شده است.
جلال ملکی ، سخنگوی سازمان آتش نشانی در این باره به خبرنگار مهر گفت : فروکش زمین در مسیر اتوبوس های تندرو رخ داده و مشکلی را برای خودروهای عبوری به وجود نیاورده است. در محل فروکش زمین آب جمع شده است. هنوز مشخص نیست فروکش زمین به دلیل ترکیدگی لوله آب بوده یا بر اثر فروکش زمین لوله آب دچار شکستگی شده است.
وی افزود: تا کنون برای امدادرسانی به افراد احتمالی که داخل گودال سقوط کرده باشند از آتش نشانی درخواست کمک نشده است.
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
كلا با ورود سامانه بارشي افزايش وزش باد تا آخر هفته بخصوص نيمه شرقي ديده مي شه.
- وضعیت