روح الله تهران
کاربر ويژه
سلام بر تمام دوستان :گل:
نیم ساعت پیش اینجا بارش شدیدی داشتیم الان هوا ابریه فکر کنم بارش دوباره شروع بشه
نیم ساعت پیش اینجا بارش شدیدی داشتیم الان هوا ابریه فکر کنم بارش دوباره شروع بشه
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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
اصغری صبح تو رادیو با مجری مشغوله گپ زدن بود !
گفت امروز تا جمعه خیلی جاها بارش داریم و . . . . . (که خودمون بهتر میدونیم).
گفت از چهارشنبه شب و 5شنبه بارشا غالبا به صورته برفه که تهرانم برفه مجری رادیو سوال کرد: اینکه میگید تهران برفه تو سطحه شهرم برفه یا اینکه کوهها ؟ اصغری گفت نه بیشتر ارتفاعات برفه بعد مجری گفت خب ارتفاعات که همیشه برفه دیگه همین الانم سفیده . سطحه شهر برفی نمیشه؟ اصغری : گفت ولمون کن تو رو خدا دی قرار بود برف بیاد شهر که نیومد انتظار داری حالا الان بیاد؟!!!
مجری گفت: آقای اصغری چرا این منطقه جام جم با یه خورده پایینتر از خودشم انقدر فرق داره؟ گاهی اینجا برفو بارونه ولی میری تو ولیعصر خبری نیست! اصغری: خب اقلیمیشه دیگه الان همین شیب رو ببین رو اقلیم تاثیره زیادی داره. خلاصه پنجشنبه ما تو منطقه جام جم برف و بارون داریم ولی در شهر باران.
گفت امروز تا جمعه خیلی جاها بارش داریم و . . . . . (که خودمون بهتر میدونیم).
گفت از چهارشنبه شب و 5شنبه بارشا غالبا به صورته برفه که تهرانم برفه مجری رادیو سوال کرد: اینکه میگید تهران برفه تو سطحه شهرم برفه یا اینکه کوهها ؟ اصغری گفت نه بیشتر ارتفاعات برفه بعد مجری گفت خب ارتفاعات که همیشه برفه دیگه همین الانم سفیده . سطحه شهر برفی نمیشه؟ اصغری : گفت ولمون کن تو رو خدا دی قرار بود برف بیاد شهر که نیومد انتظار داری حالا الان بیاد؟!!!
مجری گفت: آقای اصغری چرا این منطقه جام جم با یه خورده پایینتر از خودشم انقدر فرق داره؟ گاهی اینجا برفو بارونه ولی میری تو ولیعصر خبری نیست! اصغری: خب اقلیمیشه دیگه الان همین شیب رو ببین رو اقلیم تاثیره زیادی داره. خلاصه پنجشنبه ما تو منطقه جام جم برف و بارون داریم ولی در شهر باران.
روح الله تهران
کاربر ويژه
امیدوارم که سطح شهر بارش برف داشته باشه حتی بصورت برفاب
البته فراموش کردن گویا که جام جم هم جزوی از شهر هست و پای کوه هم قرار نداره .
تهران سره اصغری یه بلایی آورده که اگه تمامه سایتا و نقشه های داخلی و خارجی بارش برف ستگین و با کانتر 512 هم نشون بدن باز اصغری میگه ارتفاعاته تهران برف میاد:خنده1:
والا بنده از خودم حرفی رو نزدم.
اگه دقت کرده باشی در تیکه کلامه اصغری واژه منطقه هست مثلا اگه بپرسی پونک هواش چه طوره؟ میگه : منطقه پونک مثلا ابریه.
ربطی به اینکه جام جم تهران نیست یا هست یا پای کوهه یا بیایونه یا. . . . . . . نداره!
aria_tehran
کاربر ويژه
فقط 2 متر؟!:تعجب2:
ایشالا. . . .
aria_tehran
کاربر ويژه
به خاطر نوع ابرا و دمای بالاست فکر کنم
روح الله تهران
کاربر ويژه
فکر کنم سرما به تهران فردا برسه
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
High-Impact Snowstorm Headed For Mid-Atlantic
By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
The Mid-Atlantic states are bracing for a high-impact, heavy snowstorm starting late Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday. The storm has the potential to paste parts of Virginia and Maryland with more than a foot of snow, while ending Washington, D.C.’s longest snow drought on record. The nation’s capital hasn’t received two inches or more of snow in a single event since Jan. 26, 2011, the longest such stretch since weather records began there in the late 1800s.
Simulated radar from the NAM computer model, for Wednesday afternoon.
Click on the image to enlarge it. Credit: WeatherBell.com.
The prospect of heavy, wet snow along with high winds means that this storm poses a significant risk of power outages in a region that experienced lengthy power disruptions following severe thunderstorms last summer and Hurricane Sandy last fall.
The storm also threatens to cause coastal flooding from Virginia northward, possibly all the way to Massachusetts. The National Weather Service office in Philadelphia warned of the potential for “major coastal flooding” to take place along the vulnerable New Jersey shoreline, which was severely damaged during Sandy in October 2012. Fortunately, astronomical tides are not running particularly high, which should limit the flooding potential.
Computer models have been giving forecasters fits when it comes to predicting the exact snowfall amounts, but confidence is high that a major storm will strike the Mid-Atlantic region. Model updates from Monday afternoon indicated an increasing possibility that the storm will affect a broader swath of the East Coast, possibly reaching up as far as Boston.
Temperatures at the surface are going to be marginal for snow in the Washington and Baltimore metro areas, but if the precipitation falls heavily enough, as many projections indicate it will, then colder air aloft will be dragged to the surface, and snow would accumulate even if surface temperatures are in the mid 30s.
As of Monday afternoon it looked like Philadelphia and New York City would be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield and would be spared a big snowstorm, but there are more questions about how the storm will affect southern New England. One of the main computer models used for forecasting the weather, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), has been showing that the storm will move farther northward and park itself near Cape Cod, lashing southeastern New England with wind-whipped rain and snow.
The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang blog has nicknamed the storm “snowquester,” since it comes in the first week of the automatic federal budget cuts known as the “sequester." The Weather Gang's forecasters are predicting that the heaviest snow will pile up well west of D.C., especially at higher elevations in Virginia. (Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has named the storm "Saturn", setting up a naming duel for the largest share of the social media conversation in the Mid-Atlantic.) Still, D.C. itself could see between 3 to 8 inches of snow, and possibly more, depending on the exact track and strength of the storm, according to the blog's forecast and National Weather Service data.
The storm is expected to draw in copious amounts of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. Indications are that at least 2 inches of liquid precipitation could fall somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic during this event. That could translate into nearly two feet of snow depending on air and surface temperatures.
Heavy snowstorms are entirely consistent with climate change projections. Scientists expect that major snowstorms will continue to occur as the climate warms, in part because warmer air and ocean temperatures will increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That added water vapor could fuel unusually heavy snowstorms, such as the blizzard that buried parts of New England under 40 inches of snow in early February.
Recent observations do show more frequent heavy precipitation falling in many areas, although it has not been the case in every region and season.
A forthcoming paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found there were more than twice the number of extreme regional snowstorms from 1961-2010 in the U.S. as there were in the previous 60 years.
“The greater number of extreme storms in recent decades is consistent with other findings of recent increases in heavier and more widespread snowstorms,” the study said.
- Published: March 4th, 2013 , Last Updated: March 4th, 2013
By Andrew Freedman Follow @afreedma
The Mid-Atlantic states are bracing for a high-impact, heavy snowstorm starting late Tuesday and lasting through Wednesday. The storm has the potential to paste parts of Virginia and Maryland with more than a foot of snow, while ending Washington, D.C.’s longest snow drought on record. The nation’s capital hasn’t received two inches or more of snow in a single event since Jan. 26, 2011, the longest such stretch since weather records began there in the late 1800s.
Simulated radar from the NAM computer model, for Wednesday afternoon.Click on the image to enlarge it. Credit: WeatherBell.com.
The prospect of heavy, wet snow along with high winds means that this storm poses a significant risk of power outages in a region that experienced lengthy power disruptions following severe thunderstorms last summer and Hurricane Sandy last fall.
The storm also threatens to cause coastal flooding from Virginia northward, possibly all the way to Massachusetts. The National Weather Service office in Philadelphia warned of the potential for “major coastal flooding” to take place along the vulnerable New Jersey shoreline, which was severely damaged during Sandy in October 2012. Fortunately, astronomical tides are not running particularly high, which should limit the flooding potential.
Computer models have been giving forecasters fits when it comes to predicting the exact snowfall amounts, but confidence is high that a major storm will strike the Mid-Atlantic region. Model updates from Monday afternoon indicated an increasing possibility that the storm will affect a broader swath of the East Coast, possibly reaching up as far as Boston.
Temperatures at the surface are going to be marginal for snow in the Washington and Baltimore metro areas, but if the precipitation falls heavily enough, as many projections indicate it will, then colder air aloft will be dragged to the surface, and snow would accumulate even if surface temperatures are in the mid 30s.
As of Monday afternoon it looked like Philadelphia and New York City would be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield and would be spared a big snowstorm, but there are more questions about how the storm will affect southern New England. One of the main computer models used for forecasting the weather, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), has been showing that the storm will move farther northward and park itself near Cape Cod, lashing southeastern New England with wind-whipped rain and snow.
The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang blog has nicknamed the storm “snowquester,” since it comes in the first week of the automatic federal budget cuts known as the “sequester." The Weather Gang's forecasters are predicting that the heaviest snow will pile up well west of D.C., especially at higher elevations in Virginia. (Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has named the storm "Saturn", setting up a naming duel for the largest share of the social media conversation in the Mid-Atlantic.) Still, D.C. itself could see between 3 to 8 inches of snow, and possibly more, depending on the exact track and strength of the storm, according to the blog's forecast and National Weather Service data.
The storm is expected to draw in copious amounts of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. Indications are that at least 2 inches of liquid precipitation could fall somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic during this event. That could translate into nearly two feet of snow depending on air and surface temperatures.
Heavy snowstorms are entirely consistent with climate change projections. Scientists expect that major snowstorms will continue to occur as the climate warms, in part because warmer air and ocean temperatures will increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That added water vapor could fuel unusually heavy snowstorms, such as the blizzard that buried parts of New England under 40 inches of snow in early February.
Recent observations do show more frequent heavy precipitation falling in many areas, although it has not been the case in every region and season.
A forthcoming paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found there were more than twice the number of extreme regional snowstorms from 1961-2010 in the U.S. as there were in the previous 60 years.
“The greater number of extreme storms in recent decades is consistent with other findings of recent increases in heavier and more widespread snowstorms,” the study said.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Spring May Arrive Five Weeks Earlier by 2100, Study Finds
By Michael D. Lemonick
Follow @MLemonick
The biological onset of spring could arrive up to five weeks earlier by 2100 in the northern U.S. than it does today, and more than a week earlier in the South, a change that could significantly alter ecosystems from Florida to Maine, according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters.
“This is a big deal,” said lead author David Medvigy, an ecologist at Princeton University, in an interview. The reason is that ecosystems have evolved over thousands of years, so that different species live more or less in balance with each other. If spring comes earlier, some species will adapt more easily than others, throwing that balance off by, for example, disturbing the relationship between animals and their food sources.
Credit: promanex/flickr
As with so many disruptions to natural systems, including rising seas, more frequent and intense droughts and heat waves, and more torrential downpours, this projected rollback in the onset of spring — measured in this case by “budburst,” or the annual emergence of leaves on deciduous trees like maples, poplars and birches — is tied to global warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
The idea that spring is getting pushed earlier by climate change isn’t new: in fact, scientists have already demonstrated that spring weather has been coming to the U.S. three days earlier during the past 30 years, on average, than it did during the previous 30. Others have documented the shifting, not of weather, but of phenology — that is, biological events of all sorts, including budburst, but also flowering, ovulation, migration and other seasonal changes in plants and animals.
This is the first study that looks in such depth at a single phenomenon. About a quarter of the CO2 emitted through human activity is re-absorbed by the land, mostly by plants (another quarter goes into the sea, and half remains in the atmosphere where it traps the Sun’s energy).
Much of that absorption happens in spring and summer, when plants are most actively growing — if you look at a chart of atmospheric CO2, you see it rise over the years in a sawtooth pattern, with a slight drop every year during the growing season, followed by an even bigger increase in the fall, as leaves fall and plants die.
In order to understand that cycle better, Medvigy and his co-authors tapped into the National Phenology Network, an organization that uses citizen-scientists to go out and report on the timing of biological phenomena. “Until now,” he said, “we’ve had very few data sets on budburst,” and to gather information in the conventional way, he said, “would require huge number of grad students out watching trees.”
Using an index for the onset of spring developed by Mark D. Schwartz and collegues, Climate Central found that spring temperatures have been arriving approximately 3 days earlier, moving from March 20 (1951-1980 average) to March 17 now (1981-2010 average).
For more details: State-by-State Look at How Early Spring Has Arrived.
Armed with reports on budburst and local temperature from the network, and funded by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Medvigy and his colleagues used state-of-the-art climate models to look at how changes in temperature would likely affect leaf emergence over the next nine decades or so. “The main result is the obvious one: it’s going to be warmer, so budburst is going to be earlier,” he said.
But the scale of that change is striking, he said. “The typical value is two weeks, but in some cases, it’s a month or more, while in others it’s seven days.” It depends partly on what species you look at, but in general, Medvigy said, the changes are greater in states like New York, Michigan, Wisconsin and Maine. In those states and others, the growing season will get longer, with one possible result that deciduous (i.e., leaf-dropping) trees will start to out-compete pines and other conifers. Changing the mix of trees in a long-established forest could have ripple effects no one can really predict.
What they can predict is that “the North is going to become more South-like,” Medvigy said. “It could lead to a homogenizing of ecosystems,” in which regional ecosystems that now look very different would begin to look alike. That might, in turn, alter the migratory behavior many species of birds and insects — a ripple effect that could lead to further changes in ecosystems.
And that’s just based on what happens in spring, which as Medvigy said “is interesting, but it’s only half the question.” If autumn starts to come later at the other end of the year (and there are hints that this is already happening), the growing season will be even longer, multiplying the chance of ecosystem disruption.
Medvigy and his colleagues therefore plan to look at fall as well. Meanwhile, they’ve partnered with scientists at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to incorporate the new results into the lab’s own climate models. Medvigy said that ideally, this would help the models do a better job of simulating the movement of carbon from the atmosphere to the land and back again.
And that, in turn, could help drive down uncertainties that remain in climate models, allowing scientist to say with relative precision, rather than just approximately, where temperatures are headed for the rest of the century. A project that started out trying to understand the effect of climate on ecosystems could well turn out to be important, in short, in understanding the effect of ecosystems on climate.
- Published: March 4th, 2013
By Michael D. Lemonick Follow @MLemonick
The biological onset of spring could arrive up to five weeks earlier by 2100 in the northern U.S. than it does today, and more than a week earlier in the South, a change that could significantly alter ecosystems from Florida to Maine, according to a paper published in Geophysical Research Letters.
“This is a big deal,” said lead author David Medvigy, an ecologist at Princeton University, in an interview. The reason is that ecosystems have evolved over thousands of years, so that different species live more or less in balance with each other. If spring comes earlier, some species will adapt more easily than others, throwing that balance off by, for example, disturbing the relationship between animals and their food sources.
As with so many disruptions to natural systems, including rising seas, more frequent and intense droughts and heat waves, and more torrential downpours, this projected rollback in the onset of spring — measured in this case by “budburst,” or the annual emergence of leaves on deciduous trees like maples, poplars and birches — is tied to global warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
The idea that spring is getting pushed earlier by climate change isn’t new: in fact, scientists have already demonstrated that spring weather has been coming to the U.S. three days earlier during the past 30 years, on average, than it did during the previous 30. Others have documented the shifting, not of weather, but of phenology — that is, biological events of all sorts, including budburst, but also flowering, ovulation, migration and other seasonal changes in plants and animals.
This is the first study that looks in such depth at a single phenomenon. About a quarter of the CO2 emitted through human activity is re-absorbed by the land, mostly by plants (another quarter goes into the sea, and half remains in the atmosphere where it traps the Sun’s energy).
Much of that absorption happens in spring and summer, when plants are most actively growing — if you look at a chart of atmospheric CO2, you see it rise over the years in a sawtooth pattern, with a slight drop every year during the growing season, followed by an even bigger increase in the fall, as leaves fall and plants die.
In order to understand that cycle better, Medvigy and his co-authors tapped into the National Phenology Network, an organization that uses citizen-scientists to go out and report on the timing of biological phenomena. “Until now,” he said, “we’ve had very few data sets on budburst,” and to gather information in the conventional way, he said, “would require huge number of grad students out watching trees.”
For more details: State-by-State Look at How Early Spring Has Arrived.
Armed with reports on budburst and local temperature from the network, and funded by a grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Medvigy and his colleagues used state-of-the-art climate models to look at how changes in temperature would likely affect leaf emergence over the next nine decades or so. “The main result is the obvious one: it’s going to be warmer, so budburst is going to be earlier,” he said.
But the scale of that change is striking, he said. “The typical value is two weeks, but in some cases, it’s a month or more, while in others it’s seven days.” It depends partly on what species you look at, but in general, Medvigy said, the changes are greater in states like New York, Michigan, Wisconsin and Maine. In those states and others, the growing season will get longer, with one possible result that deciduous (i.e., leaf-dropping) trees will start to out-compete pines and other conifers. Changing the mix of trees in a long-established forest could have ripple effects no one can really predict.
What they can predict is that “the North is going to become more South-like,” Medvigy said. “It could lead to a homogenizing of ecosystems,” in which regional ecosystems that now look very different would begin to look alike. That might, in turn, alter the migratory behavior many species of birds and insects — a ripple effect that could lead to further changes in ecosystems.
And that’s just based on what happens in spring, which as Medvigy said “is interesting, but it’s only half the question.” If autumn starts to come later at the other end of the year (and there are hints that this is already happening), the growing season will be even longer, multiplying the chance of ecosystem disruption.
Medvigy and his colleagues therefore plan to look at fall as well. Meanwhile, they’ve partnered with scientists at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to incorporate the new results into the lab’s own climate models. Medvigy said that ideally, this would help the models do a better job of simulating the movement of carbon from the atmosphere to the land and back again.
And that, in turn, could help drive down uncertainties that remain in climate models, allowing scientist to say with relative precision, rather than just approximately, where temperatures are headed for the rest of the century. A project that started out trying to understand the effect of climate on ecosystems could well turn out to be important, in short, in understanding the effect of ecosystems on climate.
درسته معمولا میگه منطقه جام جم
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام مجدد دوستان
آخرین آپدیت نیروی دریایی خدا رو شکر خیلی خوب بوده
18 الی 72 ساعت آینده:
آخرین آپدیت نیروی دریایی خدا رو شکر خیلی خوب بوده
18 الی 72 ساعت آینده:
پايتخت سودان در آستانه ي 40 درجه!!! :خنده1:
حالا اين دماهاش به كنار، فكر كنم توي 12 ماه سال 10 ماهش آسمونش همينطوريه!
http://www.foreca.com/Sudan/Khartoum?tenday
حالا اين دماهاش به كنار، فكر كنم توي 12 ماه سال 10 ماهش آسمونش همينطوريه!
http://www.foreca.com/Sudan/Khartoum?tenday
آخرین ویرایش:
navid-mashhad
کاربر ويژه
امیر محسن چرا کانتر 528 این قدر ناز می کنه برای ما
سلام مجدد دوستان
آخرین آپدیت نیروی دریایی خدا رو شکر خیلی خوب بوده
18 الی 72 ساعت آینده:
محسن جان واقعا خسته نباشی که با این همه مشغله بازم به فروم سر میزنی و پست میزاری.:گل:
واقعا خدا رو شکر فکر کنم دیگه بارشمون تثبیت شده باشه و میزانش هم خوب باشه حالا دقیق چقدر بیاد دیگه دست خداست.
اینم آبدیت ساعت 2 مدل عددی GFS:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=oimm&submit.x=5&submit.y=12
و همچینین به خاطر اینکه بارشا از یه کم فشار هست:گل:
- وضعیت