دختر مهتاب
متخصص بخش آموزش خیاطی
الگوی بارش دریک هفته اینده
ببینیددرست کپی کردم:خنده2:
-
توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
الگوی بارش دریک هفته اینده
ببینیددرست کپی کردم:خنده2:
دختر مهتاب
متخصص بخش آموزش خیاطی
راستی شما به جاهای دیگه انجمن سرنمیزنید همش اینجایید :تعجب2:
چون خیلی ناشناخته ایدبین بچه های انجمن فکرکنما:خنده2:
چون خیلی ناشناخته ایدبین بچه های انجمن فکرکنما:خنده2:
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سايت اطلس هواشناسي جاده اي كشور هم هك شد:
http://meteo-atlas.ir
http://meteo-atlas.ir
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
زندگي بدون اميد مردگي هست. حس اميد همچون نيروي محركه اي انگيزه اي بهت ميده كه براي رسيدن به اون ايده آل تلاش كني.
دختر مهتاب
متخصص بخش آموزش خیاطی
مجموعه بارش ها در یک هفته اینده
بچه ها بگید درست میذارم یانه ؟اگه اشتباه خیلی بدمیشدا:خجالت2:
درسته بدون امید به اینده زندگی معنایی نداره!!!
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
مجموعه بارش ها در یک هفته اینده
بچه ها بگید درست میذارم یانه ؟اگه اشتباه خیلی بدمیشدا:خجالت2:
شما نذاشته كارتون درسته !
دختر مهتاب
متخصص بخش آموزش خیاطی
:احترام:
خوشحال شدم بازم کپی میکنم میذارم اینجا:نیش2:
شماهم همین کارومیکنید:نیش2::icestar::icestar::icestar::icestar::84::58::19:
شبت بخیرداداش محسن خسته نباشی:بای::atish:
بقول اصل وعده که به آدم می دن ( کخصوصا تو ادارات و ... :
ایشاله درست می شه ( ترجمه دیوانی ( حافظ ) باش صبح دولتت بدمد - و یا بی ادبی بمون زیر پات علف سبز شه )
حکایت انتظار ما هم شده این سعید جان
البته من متاسفانه دغدغه های آب و هوائی رو کم کردم ولی تو همین مدت یکم دچار کرختی شدم
امروز اصغری می گفت اوج بارش ها در غربه حتی اسم دامنه های گرین الشتر رو آورد مهمونی بویدم متاسفانه شلوغ پلوغ بود فکر کنم ملایر هم گفت نمی دونم نهاوند رو هم گفت یا نه دوستان گزارش اصغری رو شنیدید می دونید چی گفت ؟
اصغری تقریبا اسم همه استان ها رو برد و گفت که بارش خوبی دارن،نمیدونم بر طبق چه چیزی این حرفو زد
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
هنوز موندم علت هك كردن سايت هاي هواشناسي چيه؟ چه سودي در بر داره ؟
مهرداد جان این کسایی که این سایت اطلس رو هک کردن،خودشونم اومدن پایینش گفتن که امنیت سیستمتون رو بیشتر کنید،از 3 حالت خارج نیست،یا هکر آماتور هستن که دارن کار یاد میگیرن!یا هکرهای کلاه سفید هستن که برای نشون دادن ضعف های امنیتی سایت ها این کارو میکنن.یا هکرهایی هستن که مرض دارن هک می کنند!که این سایت فک کنم
حالت اول باشه
خوب خودشون نوشته بودند دیگه مهرداد جان secure your site سایت هاشون امنیت نداره اینا هم می آن مچل شون می کنند هک می کنند تازه تا بنده های خدا بفهمند هک شدند یک هفته می گذره بعدش دیگه تعطیلش می کنند ( حال حوصله درست کردنشو ندارند ) حتی شاید سیا.ست هواشناسی ه تا یکم از این همه زحماتشون کم شه ( بنده های خدا خسته می شن )
حالا می گم فردا یکی از دوستان زنگ بهشون بزنه بگه سایت هک شده شاید یکم پروسه فوق تسهیل و تسریع بشه
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سايت هايي وجود دارن كه نبودشون بهتر هست اونها رو مي تونن مورد هدف قرار بدن. اين سايت رو من از روش نقشه برداشتم و چه خوب شد قبلا منهدم شدنش مطلب مربوط به ريز گردها رو نقشه ش رو از اين سايت بر داشتم.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Study: Arctic Summers Warmest in 600 Years
By Michael D. Lemonick
Follow @MLemonick
The Arctic has seen warmer summers over the past two decades than at any time in the past 600 years, according to a study published this week in the journal Nature. The study uses a sophisticated statistical approach, known as Bayesian modeling, to show that the extremely warm summers in high northern latitudes are evidence of an overall warming trend, rather than just a temporary fluctuation in an otherwise unchanging climate.
Surface temperatures in the Arctic were much warmer than average for the first decade of the 21st century, as shown in this image.
Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: NOAA.
That’s a crucial distinction: a natural fluctuation might reverse before the full effects of warm temperatures could set in, including the melting of Greenland’s ice cap, which could lead to a significant rise in sea level, and ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean, which could trigger problematic weather anomalies in other parts of the globe.
Scientists have already shown that a warming climate will automatically generate more high-temperature records than a stable one. That’s because individual temperature measurements in a given location form a bell curve, with the greatest number of readings falling into the “normal” range for that location. A small number of readings will fall well above normal, however, and an equally small number will fall below.
If the normal range shifts, however, because the climate is warming overall, high temperatures that once came along very rarely will happen more often, while extreme cold temperatures will become even rarer. A 2012 paper by James Hansen, who recently retired from his post at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, showed how this must be true for daily temperatures, but the same principle applies to seasonal averages.
The problem here is that people haven’t been taking comprehensive readings of temperatures in the high Arctic for very long, so they rely on proxies such as tree-ring thickness to stand in for temperature. And those proxies, said lead author Martin Tingley, an expert in climate statistics at Harvard, “carry significant uncertainties.”
Tingley likes to use an analogy: “I’m six-feet-four, which is significantly above average. So even if I’ve never met you, I can confidently guess that I’m probably taller than you are.” But if Tingley were about to enter a room with a thousand men already inside, he couldn’t be equally confident that he’d be the tallest.
It’s the same with summer average temperatures in the Arctic. “From a statistics perspective,” he said, “it’s very different to ask ‘is this summer warmer than the summer of 1473’ and ‘is this summer warmer than all summers in the past 600 years?’”
With precise records, you could just look it up, but the uncertainties in climate proxies make it much more difficult — and without going into the virtues and technical details of different statistical techniques, it turns out that Bayesian analysis is ideally suited to answer that broader question.
The answer, write Tingley and his co-author Peter Huybers, also of Harvard: “…we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years.”
Tingley and Huybers’ analysis shows, moreover, that these recent extremes are best explained by an overall rise in average temperatures. That is right in line with an overwhelming body of evidence showing that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have already driven global temperatures higher, and will continue to do so as the century progresses.
Rapid Arctic climate change has resulted in a stunning decline in Arctic sea ice cover, with 2012 setting the record for the lowest ice extent since satellite observations began in 1979. The plunge in sea ice is helping to boost temperatures by exposing greater areas of dark, open ocean, which absorbs more incoming solar radiation that the brightly colored ice does.
Related Content:
- Published: April 12th, 2013 , Last Updated: April 12th, 2013
By Michael D. Lemonick Follow @MLemonick
The Arctic has seen warmer summers over the past two decades than at any time in the past 600 years, according to a study published this week in the journal Nature. The study uses a sophisticated statistical approach, known as Bayesian modeling, to show that the extremely warm summers in high northern latitudes are evidence of an overall warming trend, rather than just a temporary fluctuation in an otherwise unchanging climate.
Surface temperatures in the Arctic were much warmer than average for the first decade of the 21st century, as shown in this image. Click on the image to enlarge. Credit: NOAA.
That’s a crucial distinction: a natural fluctuation might reverse before the full effects of warm temperatures could set in, including the melting of Greenland’s ice cap, which could lead to a significant rise in sea level, and ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean, which could trigger problematic weather anomalies in other parts of the globe.
Scientists have already shown that a warming climate will automatically generate more high-temperature records than a stable one. That’s because individual temperature measurements in a given location form a bell curve, with the greatest number of readings falling into the “normal” range for that location. A small number of readings will fall well above normal, however, and an equally small number will fall below.
If the normal range shifts, however, because the climate is warming overall, high temperatures that once came along very rarely will happen more often, while extreme cold temperatures will become even rarer. A 2012 paper by James Hansen, who recently retired from his post at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, showed how this must be true for daily temperatures, but the same principle applies to seasonal averages.
The problem here is that people haven’t been taking comprehensive readings of temperatures in the high Arctic for very long, so they rely on proxies such as tree-ring thickness to stand in for temperature. And those proxies, said lead author Martin Tingley, an expert in climate statistics at Harvard, “carry significant uncertainties.”
Tingley likes to use an analogy: “I’m six-feet-four, which is significantly above average. So even if I’ve never met you, I can confidently guess that I’m probably taller than you are.” But if Tingley were about to enter a room with a thousand men already inside, he couldn’t be equally confident that he’d be the tallest.
It’s the same with summer average temperatures in the Arctic. “From a statistics perspective,” he said, “it’s very different to ask ‘is this summer warmer than the summer of 1473’ and ‘is this summer warmer than all summers in the past 600 years?’”
With precise records, you could just look it up, but the uncertainties in climate proxies make it much more difficult — and without going into the virtues and technical details of different statistical techniques, it turns out that Bayesian analysis is ideally suited to answer that broader question.
The answer, write Tingley and his co-author Peter Huybers, also of Harvard: “…we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years.”
Tingley and Huybers’ analysis shows, moreover, that these recent extremes are best explained by an overall rise in average temperatures. That is right in line with an overwhelming body of evidence showing that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have already driven global temperatures higher, and will continue to do so as the century progresses.
Rapid Arctic climate change has resulted in a stunning decline in Arctic sea ice cover, with 2012 setting the record for the lowest ice extent since satellite observations began in 1979. The plunge in sea ice is helping to boost temperatures by exposing greater areas of dark, open ocean, which absorbs more incoming solar radiation that the brightly colored ice does.
Related Content:
پس با این اوصاف فک کنم همون هکرهای دسته سوم هستن که این کارو میکنن :دی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]Heavy Wind and Strong Winds for Ireland
[h=6]By Mark Paquette [h=5]April 12, 2013; 9:11 AM
Share |
While an area of area high pressure is over central Europe and brings a warming trend to western Europe this weekend, a strong low pressure system over the Atlantic will cause a cold front to impact Ireland on Saturday and parts of the United Kingdom Sunday.
This feature will spread heavy rain across Ireland. Rainfall amounts are expected to average 1.00-1.50 inches (25-38 mm) across Dublin with localized as high as 2.00 inches (51 mm) which will lead to areas of flooding.
Accompanying the heavy rain, south to southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will average 30-40 mph (50-65 km/h) with gusts as high as 50 mph (80 km/h). As a result, power outages will occur across parts of Ireland on Saturday due to downed trees and power lines.
- وضعیت