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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
عبدالله عظمت , azamat پیش بینی زلزله با استفاده از ابر زلزله نویسنده زابل عباسی Earthquake clouds محمد امامی مقدمه: بحث بر سر آن كه آیااساساَ امكان پیش بینی زلزله توسط بشر وجودداردیاخیربین محققان در جریان است؛اما نكته ای كه دراین میان بایدآنرا مورد توجه قرار داداین است كه علاوه بر پیشرفتهای جدی در این زمینه هنوز یك روش قابل اطمینان وجود ندارد. دراین مقاله به بررسی پیش بینی زلزله با استفاده از ابر زلزله می پردازیم. ابر زلزله ابری است كه با توجه به تفاوتهای بنیادی آن با سایر ابرها قابل رهگیری از طریق ماهواره است؛ با توجه به حركتهای متناوب پوسته زمین قبل ازوقوع زلزله در اثر اصطكاك حاصل از این حركات در درون زمین گرما ایجاد می شود این گرما سبب تبخیر آبهای زیر زمینی میشود پس ازآن این بخارات از خلل وفرج سنگهای در محل گسل از زمین خارج شده وتشكیل ابرهایی با تفاوت با سایر ابرها را می دهد تفاوت ابر زلزله با سایر ابرها: 1- تشكیل ناگهانی : با توجه به علت متفاوت تشكیل این ابرها بوجود آمدن آنها بدون هیچ زمینه هیدرولوژیكی قبلی است 2- تشكیل بر روی گسلها: رابطه كاملاً معنی داری با محل گسلها دارند. 3- تفاوت در بارهای الكتریكی موجود در ابرها 4- شكل منحصر به فرد:این ابرها دارای شكلی كاملاً خطی ودر جهت گسلها هستند. یك محقق چینی با نام ژونگ هواشوZhonghoa Sho) ) با بررسی های دقیق واستناد به این ابرها برای اولین بار این روش را بعنوان یكی از روشهای پیش بینی زلزله مطرح كرد.با بررسیهای ماهوارهای كه ایشان برروی این ابرها انجام داده توانسته است زلزله های زیادی را پیش بینی كند ،تایید این مطلب توسط مركززمین شناسی آمریكا در وقوع 68 درصدی پیش بینیهای ایشان از سال 1994تا2001است خود گواه قابل تامل بودن این راه پیش بینی است. با این روش ایشان زلزله رودبار-منجیل راكه در سال 1990 رخداد 18 ساعت قبل خبر داده بودند، از جمله مهمترین پیش بینی های ایشان كه برگ زرینی در پیش بینی های علمی بحساب می آید پیش بینی زلزله سال 2003 بم می باشد ، ایشان اولین بار ابر زلزله بم را در تاریخ 19 دسامبر سال 2003 رویت وبرای بار دوم رویت آنرا در تاریخ 21 دسامبر 2003 مورد تاكید قرارداده واحتمال وقوع زلزله را در روز 25 دسامبر 2003 (4دی ) ساعت 17:58 به وقت گرینویچ بصورت رسمی در سایت رسمی خود اعلام كرد. نواقصی كه در این روش با ید مورد بررسی قرار گیرند 1-ابرهای زلزله فقط در زمینهایی كه دارای منابع آبهای زیر زمینی قابل قبولی است رویت میشود 2- این ابرها در فصول گرم سال یا در شرایطی كه باد در حال وزیدن است دستخوش تغیرات می شوند 3-زمان وقوع زلزله پس از رویت این ابرها حداكثر 103 روز و حداقل 1 روز است با توجه به وجود نواقص ذكر شده برای پیش بینی زمانی ومكانی دقیق تر زلزله بهتر است از این روش همراه با سایر روشها استفاده گردد. نتیجه گیری : با توجه به شرایط نسبتاً مساعد آبهای زیر زمینی در كشور ما وبالا بودن خطر پذیری زلزله در كشور ما تو جه به این روش بصورت علمی می تواند زیانهای جانی و مالی این حادثه طبیعی یعنی زلزله را كاهش داد. مواخذ: سایت اینترنتی با آدرس www.quake.exit.com (سایت شخصی آقای ژونگ هواشو) سایت اینترنتی با آدرس www.irancivilcenter.com سایت اینترنتی با آدرس www.terraresearch.net -----------------
mahmood600
کاربر ويژه
سلام دکتر جان اره باید در سایتش رجستر بشی با ایمیلت بعدش تصاویرش لود میشه
mahmood600
کاربر ويژه
رشت
[h=2]Time: 01:08 (20:38 UTC)
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Temperature 18°C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Humidity 73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Pressure 1022 hPa[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 10 km or more[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]no clouds below 1500 m and no cumulonimbus[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TD]
[TD="class: left, width: 260"][h=4]Forecast
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Wind 6 kt from variable directions[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 6000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft
Scattered clouds at a height of10000 ft[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 3000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]mist[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Wind 10 kt from north/northeast[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 4000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft
Broken clouds at a height of 10000ft[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]haze[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[h=2]Time: 01:08 (20:38 UTC)
[h=4]Current weather observation
[TR] [TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Wind calm |
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Temperature 18°C[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Humidity 73%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Pressure 1022 hPa[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 10 km or more[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]no clouds below 1500 m and no cumulonimbus[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TD]
[TD="class: left, width: 260"][h=4]Forecast
| The report was made 29 minutes ago, at 20:09 UTC |
| Forecast valid from 30 at 21 UTC to 01 at 06 UTC |
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Wind 6 kt from variable directions[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 6000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft
Scattered clouds at a height of10000 ft[/TD]
[/TR]
| Becoming from 30 at 22 UTC to 30 at 24 UTC |
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 3000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]mist[/TD]
[/TR]
| Becoming from 01 at 04 UTC to 01 at 05 UTC |
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Wind 10 kt from north/northeast[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Visibility 4000 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Few clouds at a height of 3000 ft
Broken clouds at a height of 10000ft[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: blanc, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]haze[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TD]
[/TR]
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
How It Works
A century ago, hurricanes, tornadoes and other “natural disasters” routinely took humans by surprise. Even the mechanics behind the typical thunderstorms were something of a mystery.
Click on the image to watch a snapshot of how QuakeCasts works
Today of course we understand the elaborate choreography between temperature, water, wind, barometric pressure and other variables to produce such destructive phenomena. A hurricane may still take a strange turn, a tornado may fail to materialize after a warning, but by and large today’s meteorologists are remarkably accurate in their forecasts.
Until now the same could not be said of earthquakes. The earth begins to shake, buildings collapse, tsunamis roar ashore, and almost always the local population is taken by surprise. No natural disaster strikes more fear into the hearts of people – after all, it moves the very ground beneath our feet.
Over the past few years scientists from a variety of disciplines have collected enormous amounts of data about earthquakes as well as the physical sciences related to them. Certain precursors prior to earthquakes have become increasingly evident, most notably anomalies in the upper reaches of the atmosphere known as the ionosphere. It is these high-altitude perturbations that the QuakeCasts system depends upon to identify the likelihood of a magnitude-5 or higher earthquake.
Click on the image above to learn why the ionosphere is critical to forecasting earthquake activity
Recent evidence collected after earthquakes in Chile, Taiwan, Japan, Alaska and elsewhere have only strengthened our belief that the preliminary signs of an earthquake can be found in the sky. While our system is by no means fool-proof, it nevertheless is showing empirical evidence to suggest QuakeCasts is capable of predicting large-magnitude earthquakes. There is no cost to our online subscription service and for just $20 per year subscribers can receive SMS alerts in the event we ascertain an earthquake is likely for certain geographical regions.
Is QuakeCasts guaranteed to work? No. But like those early efforts to forecast hurricanes and other meteorological phenomena, as more and more data is captured we believe our ability to forecast earthquakes will continue to improve.
Click here to learn more about the QuakeCasts system and how it may be of benefit to you, your family, your business and other personal interests.
A century ago, hurricanes, tornadoes and other “natural disasters” routinely took humans by surprise. Even the mechanics behind the typical thunderstorms were something of a mystery.
Click on the image to watch a snapshot of how QuakeCasts worksToday of course we understand the elaborate choreography between temperature, water, wind, barometric pressure and other variables to produce such destructive phenomena. A hurricane may still take a strange turn, a tornado may fail to materialize after a warning, but by and large today’s meteorologists are remarkably accurate in their forecasts.
Until now the same could not be said of earthquakes. The earth begins to shake, buildings collapse, tsunamis roar ashore, and almost always the local population is taken by surprise. No natural disaster strikes more fear into the hearts of people – after all, it moves the very ground beneath our feet.
Over the past few years scientists from a variety of disciplines have collected enormous amounts of data about earthquakes as well as the physical sciences related to them. Certain precursors prior to earthquakes have become increasingly evident, most notably anomalies in the upper reaches of the atmosphere known as the ionosphere. It is these high-altitude perturbations that the QuakeCasts system depends upon to identify the likelihood of a magnitude-5 or higher earthquake.
Click on the image above to learn why the ionosphere is critical to forecasting earthquake activityRecent evidence collected after earthquakes in Chile, Taiwan, Japan, Alaska and elsewhere have only strengthened our belief that the preliminary signs of an earthquake can be found in the sky. While our system is by no means fool-proof, it nevertheless is showing empirical evidence to suggest QuakeCasts is capable of predicting large-magnitude earthquakes. There is no cost to our online subscription service and for just $20 per year subscribers can receive SMS alerts in the event we ascertain an earthquake is likely for certain geographical regions.
Is QuakeCasts guaranteed to work? No. But like those early efforts to forecast hurricanes and other meteorological phenomena, as more and more data is captured we believe our ability to forecast earthquakes will continue to improve.
Click here to learn more about the QuakeCasts system and how it may be of benefit to you, your family, your business and other personal interests.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=3]THINK OUT OF THE BOX- Earthquakes can be predicted Note- Due to bandwidth restrictions, readers and members are requested to write and join extension to this page as-
http://earthquake-predictionbyamitdave.webs.com/
I am an engineer working in municipal corporation of Mumbai. I have been working on earthquake prediction from the past 15 years.The accuracy of date prediction for major quakes (>6.5) is fairly high(>80%). I would like to help people save their lives by predicting major quakes and eruptions. I believe that "The tectonic plates are due to earthquakes and that the earthquakes are not due to tectonic plates.". You will find here the theory of quakes and future prediction with updates on the topic.
THEORY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
( A) First things first-at the outset, please forget the idea that, as this knowledge is based on Astrology and hence it must be wrong, or baseless. The theory is based on pure science, specifically,.physics and on the effect of Gravitational pull acting on two bodies .It requires a calculation of pull, mass1*mass2/ square of the distance between two objects.
It is also not correct that the theory is only based soley on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the changes in Momentum, mass(v2-v1) of the molten magma due to either a change in direction of the major planets, or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction,as we perceive it from Direct to Retro gate or from Retrogate to Direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role in accelerating or retarding the momentum of a planets normal speed and extreme speed and days of extreme speed which are mentioned below.
Normal Extreme Days
Mars 31-26 46-11 15
mercury 59-08 131-32 10
Jupiter 5-0 14-04 45
Venus 59-08 75-42 1 0
Saturn 2-0 07-45 180
How to predict major earthquake
(a) First-We need to find the month and date when major planets such as Jupiter and Saturn change their directions, or gain excessive speed. Venus and Mercury are also important in considering for quakes of less intensity (<6.5)
(b) Second- Find the dates 15 days before and after (a) above, when the moon acts as trigger by either joining ,opposing, or squaring the planets that are changing direction or the planet having excessive speed.
Also find the dates for full moon, new moon , low neap tide moon dates and the times immediately before and after (a) above.as the moon is the main trigger the dates and times (+/- 2Hrs ) are fixed by the moon.. this is because moon takes 2 Hrs to move one degree
THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN MAJOR QUAKES /ERUPTIONS /NATURAL DISASTERS are most likely to occur.
(C) Third- Location-The place depends on two things
Determining the place accurately is very difficult, as it depends on time accuracy. If we miss 4 minutes, we are inaccurate by one degree of longitude. The line along the resultant vector pull of all forces and the crust right above the pull at that time ,will decide the place or region where the the quake will occur. .It is true that quakes occurs along fault the line ,but that is only because those are weaker sections. of the Earth crust,which is like a skin.If the Earth crust is solid the quake may be delayed for some time (2 to 4 Hrs ) till the weakness comes right below a fault line. Or it may occur little earlier depending on availability of weaker crust
THE PLATES AND FAULTS ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES. Plates and faults are effects of quakes and not cause of the quake
HOW DID THE FIRST EVER QUAKE OCCURRED OR HOW WERE THE PLATES SEPARATED BEFORE QUAKES EVER OCCURRED? For example ,On some given date (say,16th September 2008) there are lot of quakes all over the globe and on various plates that are not related to each other. How do we explain this with Plate tectonics?
(d) Magnitude- The magnitude depends on several things which are
#One or more planets changing direction(for momentum change)
# Full moon ,New moon , low neap tide moon (for tidal force calculation)
#Planets having extreme speed ( for momentum change)
#Moon is at perigee ( for tidal force calculation )
# Earth is nearest to Sun ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon on equator ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon and Sun are at extreme declination ( for momentum change )
#Aspects of other planets ( for tidal force calculation )
# Eclipse( occurs when sun and moon are in the same plane) ( for tidal force calculation)
(D) Earthquake cycle- Once the date and time of a major quake is forecast ,we need to observe the dates before and after the selected dates, to estimate dates for pre shocks and after-shocks. These will occur before and after 7- and- half days, 15 days , 23rd day and one Lunar month. This is because the moon takes yet another potent position after each 7-and-half days (90 Degrees movement). Please note these pre and after shock may not be at the same place.
That is why we must add few more dates to our forecast .(and well in advance )
We also need to track and monitor the date from the event at least one month in advance and adjust the dates according to pre-shock signals.
(i) cyclone theory and Volcanic Eruption theory The tidal forces with change in momentum also applies to atmosphere and moisture in the air. The high tide line creates high pressure and low tide line creates low pressure zone in the atmosphere. The more the tidal force ,the more the low pressure zone. This pressure difference creates high speed winds. If it happen to be ocean with 26-27 degree temp band, over which the winds blows it may create a cyclone.
If he tidal force of molten magma is more, it can open up a dormant volcano.
Thus dates given here are prone for natural disasters
(iii) 100 % prediction- Why do we need 100 % prediction at initial stage? Why do we need either 0% or 100 % prediction ? Why we can not progress smoothly?
Forget earthquake prediction. Do we have cent percent weather forecast? Can we predict cloud burst with accuracy ,despite having Doppler Radar? Can we predict land fall of cyclones ,despite having satellite images with 72 hours lead time ? Why only sciences have liberty to learn from error? or self correction? Are we hypocrites? Are we working blind folded in the name of science? Do we have keyhole view of the problem? Are we not ready to think out of the box?
http://earthquake-predictionbyamitdave.webs.com/
I am an engineer working in municipal corporation of Mumbai. I have been working on earthquake prediction from the past 15 years.The accuracy of date prediction for major quakes (>6.5) is fairly high(>80%). I would like to help people save their lives by predicting major quakes and eruptions. I believe that "The tectonic plates are due to earthquakes and that the earthquakes are not due to tectonic plates.". You will find here the theory of quakes and future prediction with updates on the topic.
THEORY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
( A) First things first-at the outset, please forget the idea that, as this knowledge is based on Astrology and hence it must be wrong, or baseless. The theory is based on pure science, specifically,.physics and on the effect of Gravitational pull acting on two bodies .It requires a calculation of pull, mass1*mass2/ square of the distance between two objects.
It is also not correct that the theory is only based soley on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the changes in Momentum, mass(v2-v1) of the molten magma due to either a change in direction of the major planets, or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction,as we perceive it from Direct to Retro gate or from Retrogate to Direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role in accelerating or retarding the momentum of a planets normal speed and extreme speed and days of extreme speed which are mentioned below.
Normal Extreme Days
Mars 31-26 46-11 15
mercury 59-08 131-32 10
Jupiter 5-0 14-04 45
Venus 59-08 75-42 1 0
Saturn 2-0 07-45 180
How to predict major earthquake
(a) First-We need to find the month and date when major planets such as Jupiter and Saturn change their directions, or gain excessive speed. Venus and Mercury are also important in considering for quakes of less intensity (<6.5)
(b) Second- Find the dates 15 days before and after (a) above, when the moon acts as trigger by either joining ,opposing, or squaring the planets that are changing direction or the planet having excessive speed.
Also find the dates for full moon, new moon , low neap tide moon dates and the times immediately before and after (a) above.as the moon is the main trigger the dates and times (+/- 2Hrs ) are fixed by the moon.. this is because moon takes 2 Hrs to move one degree
THESE ARE THE TIMES WHEN MAJOR QUAKES /ERUPTIONS /NATURAL DISASTERS are most likely to occur.
(C) Third- Location-The place depends on two things
Determining the place accurately is very difficult, as it depends on time accuracy. If we miss 4 minutes, we are inaccurate by one degree of longitude. The line along the resultant vector pull of all forces and the crust right above the pull at that time ,will decide the place or region where the the quake will occur. .It is true that quakes occurs along fault the line ,but that is only because those are weaker sections. of the Earth crust,which is like a skin.If the Earth crust is solid the quake may be delayed for some time (2 to 4 Hrs ) till the weakness comes right below a fault line. Or it may occur little earlier depending on availability of weaker crust
THE PLATES AND FAULTS ARE DUE TO QUAKES AND QUAKES ARE NOT DUE TO PLATES. Plates and faults are effects of quakes and not cause of the quake
HOW DID THE FIRST EVER QUAKE OCCURRED OR HOW WERE THE PLATES SEPARATED BEFORE QUAKES EVER OCCURRED? For example ,On some given date (say,16th September 2008) there are lot of quakes all over the globe and on various plates that are not related to each other. How do we explain this with Plate tectonics?
(d) Magnitude- The magnitude depends on several things which are
#One or more planets changing direction(for momentum change)
# Full moon ,New moon , low neap tide moon (for tidal force calculation)
#Planets having extreme speed ( for momentum change)
#Moon is at perigee ( for tidal force calculation )
# Earth is nearest to Sun ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon on equator ( for tidal force calculation )
# Moon and Sun are at extreme declination ( for momentum change )
#Aspects of other planets ( for tidal force calculation )
# Eclipse( occurs when sun and moon are in the same plane) ( for tidal force calculation)
(D) Earthquake cycle- Once the date and time of a major quake is forecast ,we need to observe the dates before and after the selected dates, to estimate dates for pre shocks and after-shocks. These will occur before and after 7- and- half days, 15 days , 23rd day and one Lunar month. This is because the moon takes yet another potent position after each 7-and-half days (90 Degrees movement). Please note these pre and after shock may not be at the same place.
That is why we must add few more dates to our forecast .(and well in advance )
We also need to track and monitor the date from the event at least one month in advance and adjust the dates according to pre-shock signals.
(i) cyclone theory and Volcanic Eruption theory The tidal forces with change in momentum also applies to atmosphere and moisture in the air. The high tide line creates high pressure and low tide line creates low pressure zone in the atmosphere. The more the tidal force ,the more the low pressure zone. This pressure difference creates high speed winds. If it happen to be ocean with 26-27 degree temp band, over which the winds blows it may create a cyclone.
If he tidal force of molten magma is more, it can open up a dormant volcano.
Thus dates given here are prone for natural disasters
(iii) 100 % prediction- Why do we need 100 % prediction at initial stage? Why do we need either 0% or 100 % prediction ? Why we can not progress smoothly?
Forget earthquake prediction. Do we have cent percent weather forecast? Can we predict cloud burst with accuracy ,despite having Doppler Radar? Can we predict land fall of cyclones ,despite having satellite images with 72 hours lead time ? Why only sciences have liberty to learn from error? or self correction? Are we hypocrites? Are we working blind folded in the name of science? Do we have keyhole view of the problem? Are we not ready to think out of the box?
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
یک نفر این لینک رو با قندشکن باز کنه ببینیم چی توش داره:
[h=3]http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/
[h=3]http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود
به نظر میرسه از این وبلاگایی هست که میخواد زلزله رو به حرکت اقمار و سیارات ربط بده و کلا به دلایل خارق العاده در زلزله علاقه داره،یکی از مطالبش:
[h=3]Earthquake prediction for April 2013
hi
First of all ,an apology for not posting probable dates of current month till 14th April. Due o some urgent official work I could not calculate the details of probable dates.Even to day also. I could not spare time.
To day,ie 14th April 2013 .there is a major quake of 6..6 at Papua New Guinea.
I am aware ,that,justifying delay is not good, Never the less ,you can check ,as per my theory,the quake of 6.6 to day
Moon at Maximum declination
Moon Joining the Jupiter
Jupiter is closer to Earth
I wish,I could devote full time to my hobby and stop working as a full time Engineer.I am also aware that, this will not happen ,unless,Govt sponsor or at least support my research plan
Amit
به شخصه فکر می کنم نیروی گرانشی سیارات وماه و اثر جزر و مدی اونها بر روی ماگمای درون زمین تنها فاکتور ایجاد زلزله نیست
باید کار آماری بشه و ببینیم چند درصد پیشبینی های اینه صحیحه و به چند نمونه اکتفا نکنیم
من چشم بسته میتونم ۵۰ درصد شیر یا خط بودن یک سکه رو پیش بینی کنم یا ۲۵ درصد دو سکه با هم. اگه میانگین بارها آزمایشم از این درصد بیشتر بشه اونوقت حرفی برا گفتن دارم
باید کار آماری بشه و ببینیم چند درصد پیشبینی های اینه صحیحه و به چند نمونه اکتفا نکنیم
من چشم بسته میتونم ۵۰ درصد شیر یا خط بودن یک سکه رو پیش بینی کنم یا ۲۵ درصد دو سکه با هم. اگه میانگین بارها آزمایشم از این درصد بیشتر بشه اونوقت حرفی برا گفتن دارم
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فولادي :52:
قضيه جديه :گریه:
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
مي خوام يكبار ديگه تصاوير ماهواره اي رو باز بيني كنم شايد نكته اي براي حل مساله پيدا كنم
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
ايميل موسسسه ژئوفيزيك
geohome@ut.ac.ir
geohome@ut.ac.ir
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