-
توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اين ابر در صورتي كه ابر زلزله باشه با توجه به اينكه ابرهاي زلزله شكل گسل مسبب رو به خودشون مي گيرن اين احتمال وجود داره كه گسل راستاي جنوب شرقي شمال غربي داره:
عرض زياد انتهاي دم هم در نوع خودش تامل برانگيزه.
عرض زياد انتهاي دم هم در نوع خودش تامل برانگيزه.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خدا رو شکر 30 آپریل هم تموم شد و در ایران زلزله شدیدی رخ نداد:گل:
Powerful earthquake could hit Iran before Tuesday [h=3]World Earthquakes predicts high seismic activity in Iran and Japan in the next 48 hours By
Published Saturday, April 20, 2013
An Iranian man walks past the ruins of a destroyed house in the town of Shonbeh, southeast of Bushehr, on April 10, 2013. (AFP)
Image : 1 / 2
There is a possibility of a powerful earthquake hitting Iran in the next 48 hours, according to the World Earthquakes data.
“High seismic activity may occur for the next 48 hours” in Iran, the World Earthquake said on Friday.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has also predicted that a powerful earthquake that could hit the region between Thursday, April 25, and Tuesday, April 30. But UAE's National Center of Meteorology & Seismology said that it's a rumour and earthquakes cannot be predicted.
On Thursday, A 5.2-magnitude earthquake hit northwestern Iran on Thursday, only days after a deadly temblor struck near the border with Pakistan, media reported citing the seismological centre at Tehran.
Last Tuesday, a huge earthquake measuring 7.8 struck southeastern Iran killing a woman and injuring more than a dozen other people. At least 40 people were killed across the border in Pakistan where hundreds of mud homes were levelled. The tremors from the earthquake were felt across the Gulf region.
Iran sits astride several major fault lines and is prone to frequent earthquakes, some of which have been devastating.
Tuesday's earthquake was the strongest to hit Iran since 1957.
A double earthquake, one measuring 6.2 and the other 6.0, struck northwestern Iran last August, killing more than 300 people and injuring 3,000.
The World Earthquakes also warned of another powerful quake possibly hitting Japan in the next 48 hours.
On Friday, a major 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck off northern Japan on Friday, seismologists said, but no tsunami warning was issued.
Powerful earthquake could hit Iran before Tuesday [h=3]World Earthquakes predicts high seismic activity in Iran and Japan in the next 48 hours By
- Staff
Published Saturday, April 20, 2013
Image : 1 / 2
There is a possibility of a powerful earthquake hitting Iran in the next 48 hours, according to the World Earthquakes data.
“High seismic activity may occur for the next 48 hours” in Iran, the World Earthquake said on Friday.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has also predicted that a powerful earthquake that could hit the region between Thursday, April 25, and Tuesday, April 30. But UAE's National Center of Meteorology & Seismology said that it's a rumour and earthquakes cannot be predicted.
On Thursday, A 5.2-magnitude earthquake hit northwestern Iran on Thursday, only days after a deadly temblor struck near the border with Pakistan, media reported citing the seismological centre at Tehran.
Last Tuesday, a huge earthquake measuring 7.8 struck southeastern Iran killing a woman and injuring more than a dozen other people. At least 40 people were killed across the border in Pakistan where hundreds of mud homes were levelled. The tremors from the earthquake were felt across the Gulf region.
Iran sits astride several major fault lines and is prone to frequent earthquakes, some of which have been devastating.
Tuesday's earthquake was the strongest to hit Iran since 1957.
A double earthquake, one measuring 6.2 and the other 6.0, struck northwestern Iran last August, killing more than 300 people and injuring 3,000.
The World Earthquakes also warned of another powerful quake possibly hitting Japan in the next 48 hours.
On Friday, a major 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck off northern Japan on Friday, seismologists said, but no tsunami warning was issued.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
تصویری از کالورت بلوار خیام مشهد در زمان رخ داد آخرین بارش بهاره امسال مشهد و روزی که محمد رضا 8 میلیمتر ثبت کرد و فرودگاه مشهد 3 میلیمتر!!!!!
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
انيميشن ابر زلزله بم سال 82
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Physical and Geophysical measurements and observations
nStudies of precursors and events that occur before an earthquake.
nIncrease in the rate of a seismic creep and the slow movement along the fault
nGradual tilting of the land near the fault zone
nDrop or rise in the water level of a well
nDecrease in the number of micro quakes and foreshocks
nFlashes and other lights in the sky
nAnimal behavior
سلام بر دوستانتصویری از کالورت بلوار خیام مشهد در زمان رخ داد آخرین بارش بهاره امسال مشهد و روزی که محمد رضا 8 میلیمتر ثبت کرد و فرودگاه مشهد 3 میلیمتر!!!!!
من همیشه نگران این مطلبم که اگر روزی یه سیل با دوره بازگشت طولانی مدت بیاد ، با توجه به اینکه بسیاری از شرکتهای خدماتی در حاشیه کال هستند، ممکنه که ناحیه سیلابدشت تا این ساختمونها هم گسترده بشه و اونوقت خود این شرکتها که باید در مدیریت بحران شرکت کنن، نیازمند کمک باشند
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
nRequires a lot of data collection and data mining to find patterns.
nPopular methods used around the world.
nProblem with these precursors is that some of them are geographically specific.
nFault Creep Measurements
nMeasures the slow rate of movement on the fault.
nWhere lots of fault creep occur there is a small chance of a big earthquake.
nWhere little amounts of fault creep occur there is a high chance of a big earthquake.
nAnimal behavior
nRecognizing unusual animal behavior in a systematic way can be used to predict earthquakes
nThe Chinese started recording unusual animal behavior and successfully predicted an earthquake in 1975 3 months before it struck.
nUnusual animal behavior:
nHibernating animals leaving their underground nests
nAnimals refusing to go into pens
nAnimals seeking higher ground
nBirds vacating the area
nDeep water fish come closer to the surface
92 ناهنجار
Banned
نقشه وقوع رعدو تندر امروز ظهر
NATO)
(مناطق دارای مثلث رعدوبرق خواهند داشت)
NATO)(مناطق دارای مثلث رعدوبرق خواهند داشت)
92 ناهنجار
Banned
طبق مدل زیر عصر فردا پنج شنبه بوشهر و منطقه ما شرایط بهتری را برای بارش دارد...
(شاخص TOTAL و K مناسبی به چشم میخوره)
(شاخص TOTAL و K مناسبی به چشم میخوره)
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]Predicting Earthquakes The goal of earthquake prediction is to give warning of potentially damaging earthquakes early enough to allow appropriate response to the disaster, enabling people to minimize loss of life and property. The U.S. Geological Survey conducts and supports research on the likelihood of future earthquakes. This research includes field, laboratory, and theoretical investigations of earthquake mechanisms and fault zones. A primary goal of earthquake research is to increase the reliability of earthquake probability estimates. Ultimately, scientists would like to be able to specify a high probability for a specific earthquake on a particular fault within a particular year. Scientists estimate earthquake probabilities in two ways: by studying the history of large earthquakes in a specific area and the rate at which strain accumulates in the rock.
This time-exposure photograph of the electronic-laser, ground-motion movement system in operation at Parkfield, California, to track movement along the San Andreas fault. Full size image - 40 k
Scientists study the past frequency of large earthquakes in order to determine the future likelihood of similar large shocks. For example, if a region has experienced four magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes during 200 years of recorded history, and if these shocks occurred randomly in time, then scientists would assign a 50 percent probability (that is, just as likely to happen as not to happen) to the occurrence of another magnitude 7 or larger quake in the region during the next 50 years.
But in many places, the assumption of random occurrence with time may not be true, because when strain is released along one part of the fault system, it may actually increase on another part. Four magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquakes and many magnitude 6 - 6.5 shocks occurred in the San Francisco Bay region during the 75 years between 1836 and 1911. For the next 68 years (until 1979), no earthquakes of magnitude 6 or larger occurred in the region. Beginning with a magnitude 6.0 shock in 1979, the earthquake activity in the region increased dramatically; between 1979 and 1989, there were four magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes, including the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. This clustering of earthquakes leads scientists to estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquake occurring during the next 30 years in the San Francisco Bay region is about 67 percent (twice as likely as not).
Another way to estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes is to study how fast strain accumulates. When plate movements build the strain in rocks to a critical level, like pulling a rubber band too tight, the rocks will suddenly break and slip to a new position. Scientists measure how much strain accumulates along a fault segment each year, how much time has passed since the last earthquake along the segment, and how much strain was released in the last earthquake. This information is then used to calculate the time required for the accumulating strain to build to the level that results in an earthquake. This simple model is complicated by the fact that such detailed information about faults is rare. In the United States, only the San Andreas fault system has adequate records for using this prediction method.
Both of these methods, and a wide array of monitoring techniques, are being tested along part of the San Andres fault. For the past 150 years, earthquakes of about magnitude 6 have occurred an average of every 22 years on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. The last shock was in 1966. Because of the consistency and similarity of these earthquakes, scientists have started an experiment to "capture" the next Parkfield earthquake. A dense web of monitoring instruments was deployed in the region during the late 1980s. The main goals of the ongoing Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment are to record the geophysical signals before and after the expected earthquake; to issue a short-term prediction; and to develop effective methods of communication between earthquake scientists and community officials responsible for disaster response and mitigation. This project has already made important contributions to both earth science and public policy.
Scientific understanding of earthquakes is of vital importance to the Nation. As the population increases, expanding urban development and construction works encroach upon areas susceptible to earthquakes. With a greater understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes, we may be able to reduce damage and loss of life from this destructive phenomenon.
This time-exposure photograph of the electronic-laser, ground-motion movement system in operation at Parkfield, California, to track movement along the San Andreas fault. Full size image - 40 k
Scientists study the past frequency of large earthquakes in order to determine the future likelihood of similar large shocks. For example, if a region has experienced four magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes during 200 years of recorded history, and if these shocks occurred randomly in time, then scientists would assign a 50 percent probability (that is, just as likely to happen as not to happen) to the occurrence of another magnitude 7 or larger quake in the region during the next 50 years.
But in many places, the assumption of random occurrence with time may not be true, because when strain is released along one part of the fault system, it may actually increase on another part. Four magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquakes and many magnitude 6 - 6.5 shocks occurred in the San Francisco Bay region during the 75 years between 1836 and 1911. For the next 68 years (until 1979), no earthquakes of magnitude 6 or larger occurred in the region. Beginning with a magnitude 6.0 shock in 1979, the earthquake activity in the region increased dramatically; between 1979 and 1989, there were four magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes, including the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. This clustering of earthquakes leads scientists to estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquake occurring during the next 30 years in the San Francisco Bay region is about 67 percent (twice as likely as not).
Another way to estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes is to study how fast strain accumulates. When plate movements build the strain in rocks to a critical level, like pulling a rubber band too tight, the rocks will suddenly break and slip to a new position. Scientists measure how much strain accumulates along a fault segment each year, how much time has passed since the last earthquake along the segment, and how much strain was released in the last earthquake. This information is then used to calculate the time required for the accumulating strain to build to the level that results in an earthquake. This simple model is complicated by the fact that such detailed information about faults is rare. In the United States, only the San Andreas fault system has adequate records for using this prediction method.
Both of these methods, and a wide array of monitoring techniques, are being tested along part of the San Andres fault. For the past 150 years, earthquakes of about magnitude 6 have occurred an average of every 22 years on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. The last shock was in 1966. Because of the consistency and similarity of these earthquakes, scientists have started an experiment to "capture" the next Parkfield earthquake. A dense web of monitoring instruments was deployed in the region during the late 1980s. The main goals of the ongoing Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment are to record the geophysical signals before and after the expected earthquake; to issue a short-term prediction; and to develop effective methods of communication between earthquake scientists and community officials responsible for disaster response and mitigation. This project has already made important contributions to both earth science and public policy.
Scientific understanding of earthquakes is of vital importance to the Nation. As the population increases, expanding urban development and construction works encroach upon areas susceptible to earthquakes. With a greater understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes, we may be able to reduce damage and loss of life from this destructive phenomenon.
بولتن پيش بينـي وضـع هـواي استان تاریخ: 11/02/1392 مرکز پیش بینی اداره کل هواشناسی خراسان رضوی
بررسي نقشه ها و تصاوير ماهواره های هواشناسي:استقرار سامانه پر ارتفاع تراز میانی جو و تضعیف جریانات شمالی بر روی شمال شرق کشور منجمله استان خراسان رضوی موجب می شود در سه روز آینده در غالب نقاط استان دما بطور نسبی افزایش یابد . پدیده قابل ذکر دیگر در سطح استان وزش باد
می باشد که در برخی نقاط نسبتا شدید همراه با گرد و خاک خواهد بود . بر این اساس:پیش بینی وضع هوای استان خراسان رضوی
چهارشنبه 11/02/1392 | پنجشنبه 12/02/1392 | جمعه 13/02/1392 | |||
| نواحی شمالی | صاف تا قسمتی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد | صاف تا قسمتی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد ، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | صاف تا کمی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد ، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | ||
| نواحی مرکزی | صاف تا قسمتی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و غبار | صاف تا قسمتی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و غبار ، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | صاف تا کمی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و غبار ، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | ||
| نواحی جنوبی | صاف تا قسمتی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و خاک | صاف تا قسمتی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و خاک، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | صاف تا قسمتی ابری و در برخی نقاط گاهی همراه با وزش باد نسبتا شدید و گرد و خاک ، در بعدازظهر در برخی نقاط افزایش ابر | ||
| شهرستان مشهد | صاف تا قسمتی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد و غبار صبحگاهی | صاف تا قسمتی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد و غبار صبحگاهی، در بعدازظهر افزایش ابر | صاف تا کمی ابری گاهی همراه با وزش باد و غبار صبحگاهی ، در بعدازظهر افزایش ابر | ||
کمینه دما | بیشینه دما | کمینه دما | بیشینه دما | کمینه دما | بیشینه دما |
10 | 24 | 11 | 25 | 12 | 26 |
گزارش وضع هوا در 24 ساعت گذ شته:در 24 ساعت گذشته فریمان با حداقل دمای 2 درجه سانتیگراد خنک ترین و سبزوار با حداکثر دمای 29 درجه سانتیگراد گرمترین شهرهای استان خراسان رضوی بوده اند . طی همین مدت حداقل و حداکثر دمای مشهد 10 و 24 درجه سانتیگراد بوده است .در24 ساعت گذشته از ایستگاههای هواشناسی استان بارندگی گزارش
نشده است .پیش بین مسئول : ضیاء شهابی رئیس اداره پیش بینی: یحیی قاینی پور
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فايل صوتي گزارش هواشناسي شبكه خبر 92/02/11ساعت10:54
دريافت فايل صوتي / 2.4 مگابايت
دريافت فايل صوتي / 2.4 مگابايت
92 ناهنجار
Banned
مهرداد جان فایل های صوتی شما برای بنده باز نمیشه....
در ضمن نقشه های سینوپتیک روز گذشته را هم در وبلاگتون آپدیت بفرمایید.....
ممنون
در ضمن نقشه های سینوپتیک روز گذشته را هم در وبلاگتون آپدیت بفرمایید.....
ممنون
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
من الان دانلود كردم و فايل rarباز ميشه و فايل صوتي بدون هيچ مشكلي پخش ميشه. آيا كسي ديگه مشكل شهاب رو داره؟
نقشه هاي سينوپتيك هم آپديت خواهند شد.
خواهش مي كنم
- وضعیت