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توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
سلام محمد عزیز. :گل:
اون رو که واسه شوخی گفتم. وگرنه من کلا اهل ناراحتی و حرص خوردن نیستم. اوکیه اوکیم! :28: :20:
دیشب منزل که بودیم احساس تنگی نفس میکردم، پا شدیم زدیم بیرون سمت پارک سعادت آباد، همین که زیرانداز رو پهن کردم با بالش خودم رو رها کردم روی زیر انداز، بعد از اون جالت بد توی خونه یک دفعه در فضایی قرار گرفته بودم که 180 درجه فرق میکرد!
از روی چمن هائی که تازه آبیاری شده بودن یک نسیم بسیار ملایم و نسبتا سرد میومد، هوا تمیز بود و خیلی بهتر از فضای بسته خونه!
خلاصه 1.5 ساعت توی پارک بودیم و حای شما خالی حسابی لذت بردیم، پیشنهاد میکنم شما هم امتحان کنید که واقعا لذت داره.
از روی چمن هائی که تازه آبیاری شده بودن یک نسیم بسیار ملایم و نسبتا سرد میومد، هوا تمیز بود و خیلی بهتر از فضای بسته خونه!
خلاصه 1.5 ساعت توی پارک بودیم و حای شما خالی حسابی لذت بردیم، پیشنهاد میکنم شما هم امتحان کنید که واقعا لذت داره.
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
mahmood600
کاربر ويژه
در صورتی که فعالیت پرفشار سیبری زمستان امسال بیشتر باشد به دفعات پدیده بلاکینگ رو در منطقه بخصوص شمالشرق کشور خواهیم داشت و منفی بودن شاخص کلیدی NAO نقش بسیار مهمی رو در کاهش بارندگی کشور خواهد داشت
شهاب از بوشهر
کاربر ويژه
با سلام.
صفحات قبلی لایک شد.....:گل:
صفحات قبلی لایک شد.....:گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اینهم یک پیش بینی دمایی برای آمریکا در زمستان پیشرو:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Loading Pattern:
ببخشید من یه سوال دارم. آیا فرهنگ موجود زنده است که در طول حرکت میکند یا عرض؟!!! :خنده1:
نه ببخشید سوالم این نبود! به نظر شما معمولا نقشه ها تمایل دارن به زمستانی با بارش و سرمای یبیشتر از نرمال یا این تمایل ما به زمستانی این چنینی هست که باعث میشه نقشه ها رو تفسیر کنیم به سمت آرزو هامون. یا کلا ما بیشتر به دنبال پیش بینی هایی هستیم که زمستون رویایی ما رو پیش بینی کرده باشن؟! اونها رو درست تر می دونیم و اگه یه پیش بینی دیگه خلاف اون باشه میگیم حتما غلطه و یه جاش میلنگه؟!
نکنه پیش بینی ها و نقشه های پیش یابی جوری باشن که:
"هر كسي از ظن خود بشه يارشون از درون شون نجوید اسرار شون"
نه ببخشید سوالم این نبود! به نظر شما معمولا نقشه ها تمایل دارن به زمستانی با بارش و سرمای یبیشتر از نرمال یا این تمایل ما به زمستانی این چنینی هست که باعث میشه نقشه ها رو تفسیر کنیم به سمت آرزو هامون. یا کلا ما بیشتر به دنبال پیش بینی هایی هستیم که زمستون رویایی ما رو پیش بینی کرده باشن؟! اونها رو درست تر می دونیم و اگه یه پیش بینی دیگه خلاف اون باشه میگیم حتما غلطه و یه جاش میلنگه؟!
نکنه پیش بینی ها و نقشه های پیش یابی جوری باشن که:
"هر كسي از ظن خود بشه يارشون از درون شون نجوید اسرار شون"
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Loading Pattern:
منم دقیقن سوالم همین بود بهزاد جان! ما نقشه‌ها رو طوری که دلمون بخواد تفسیر می‌کنیم. در حالی که نقشه‌ها یه مقدار کاهش ارتفاع رو برای منطقه‌ی آمریکا و اروپا نشون می‌دادن، هواشناس‌های آماتور اون رو با 1963 مقایسه کردن!!!
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
Bojnourd
[h=4]Current conditions
+35 °C
Clear
Feels Like: +35°
Barometer: 1015.0 hPa
Dewpoint: +2°
Humidity: 12.5%
Visibility: 10 km
[h=4]Current conditions
+35 °C
Clear
Feels Like: +35°
Barometer: 1015.0 hPa
Dewpoint: +2°
Humidity: 12.5%
Visibility: 10 km
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Lewis
July 1, 2013
64
[h=4]Summer 2013 Forecast Here is our final summer 2013 forecast. Our forecast has been derived by studying historical datasets of various global circulations/indexes, and finding the periods most resembling the current state/projected states of these indexes through the summer. Overall the 2013 summer will likely be far less wet than that of 2012 (which, lets face it, isn’t difficult to achieve!), though it will portray the same characteristics in as much as we expect a predominantly unsettled summer. This isn’t to say there won’t be better, more settled periods. Indeed we have identified two such periods (one of them already having been picked up in our preliminary summer forecast). However, these are likely to be the exceptions rather than the rules.
It is, of course, also worth noting that the nature of long range forecasts are that specific details are difficult to provide. Here, we provide an oversight of what we feel the most likely conditions will be in terms of overall rainfall, temperature, and wind/flow direction. Overall, we expect rainfall to be around the seasonal average, whilst temperature is likely to finish around 1-2c below the long term average. Finally, it is worth taking note of the higher than usual rainfall we are expecting across the near continent. The risk of such deluges affecting the UK once again in a sustained manner is considered really rather low, but it is worth noting particularly if you are off to continental Europe at any stage this summer.
So, here it goes…
(Note: Images on the top are the 500mb Height Anomaly – a good indication of where higher and lower pressure is likely to set up, the images in the middle are Temperature anomaly – the difference from the long term average, and on the bottom are Rainfall anomaly)
500mb Height Anomaly – June – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – June – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – June – Summer Forecast 2013
500mb Height Anomaly – July – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – July – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – July – Summer Forecast 2013
500mb Height Anomaly – August – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – August – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – August – Summer Forecast 2013
July 1, 2013
64
[h=4]Summer 2013 Forecast Here is our final summer 2013 forecast. Our forecast has been derived by studying historical datasets of various global circulations/indexes, and finding the periods most resembling the current state/projected states of these indexes through the summer. Overall the 2013 summer will likely be far less wet than that of 2012 (which, lets face it, isn’t difficult to achieve!), though it will portray the same characteristics in as much as we expect a predominantly unsettled summer. This isn’t to say there won’t be better, more settled periods. Indeed we have identified two such periods (one of them already having been picked up in our preliminary summer forecast). However, these are likely to be the exceptions rather than the rules.
It is, of course, also worth noting that the nature of long range forecasts are that specific details are difficult to provide. Here, we provide an oversight of what we feel the most likely conditions will be in terms of overall rainfall, temperature, and wind/flow direction. Overall, we expect rainfall to be around the seasonal average, whilst temperature is likely to finish around 1-2c below the long term average. Finally, it is worth taking note of the higher than usual rainfall we are expecting across the near continent. The risk of such deluges affecting the UK once again in a sustained manner is considered really rather low, but it is worth noting particularly if you are off to continental Europe at any stage this summer.
So, here it goes…
(Note: Images on the top are the 500mb Height Anomaly – a good indication of where higher and lower pressure is likely to set up, the images in the middle are Temperature anomaly – the difference from the long term average, and on the bottom are Rainfall anomaly)
June
500mb Height Anomaly – June – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – June – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – June – Summer Forecast 2013June currently looks likely to provide a tail of two halves. If you notice in our top image, our 500mb height anomaly charts, which provide a rough indication of where areas of higher and lower pressure are likely to set up closer to the surface of the earth, there is a lot of yellow and green just to the South-West of the UK. We have to bear in mind that this chart is an average set-up for the whole of June. What this indicates is that higher pressure is likely to be rather close to the South-West of the UK at times, and our current expectation, which was also picked up during our preliminary summer thoughts, is that this high pressure is likely to take charge across the UK during the first half of June, settling things down, promising some sunshine, and the chance of some warmer temperatures. You will notice, however, that the predominant colour from our top image is blue, and this is indicative of lower pressure and more unsettled conditions making a comeback during the second half of June, providing some rainfall and cooler temperatures once again. Overall for the month temperatures are likely to finish below the seasonal average for June, despite the better weather early on, with rainfall around average – perhaps slightly below average across Southern and Western parts of the UK.
July
500mb Height Anomaly – July – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – July – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – July – Summer Forecast 2013The most obvious feature from our top image is the huge area of blue/purple, indicating that lower pressure is likely to play a key part in our weather, anchored just to the East of the UK, and likely to bring a predominantly unsettled and cool month, with the wettest of the conditions likely across Eastern parts of the UK. There are indications that towards the middle of July, we may see a settled spell of weather once again, likely sometime between the 12-20th, but longevity of such a spell is uncertain, and once again the predominant story is one of unsettled conditions and cooler than average temperatures. We are not expecting copious amounts of rainfall still, with around average rainfall, though temperatures once again likely to finish below the long term average.
August
500mb Height Anomaly – August – Summer Forecast 2013
2m Temperature – August – Summer Forecast 2013
Surface precipitation – August – Summer Forecast 2013A largely similar picture to July is expected, with low pressure likely to dominate to the East of the UK offering a cooler than average and largely unsettled month. Once again we are not expecting copious amounts of rainfall such as the levels seen during the summer of 2012, with conditions more likely to be showery. During the final days of August, signs are there once again that we may see pressure rise from the South, settling things down somewhat. Temperatures once again expected to be below the seasonal average overall, with rainfall close to average.
The strongest signal through the summer period is for low pressure to stubbornly dominate just to the East of the UK, and this is why the signal for below average temperatures exists, with a notable higher than average rainfall anomaly persisting throughout across Mainland Europe. As mentioned previously, with the UK likely to straddle the boundary between low pressure to the East, and higher pressure just to the South-West of the UK, the main concern at present would be for a slight shift Westwards in the pattern, which may leave the UK open to another very wet summer as the rainfall anomaly across Europe ends up a little closer to the UK. However that is considered very low risk at present.
So overall a better summer than 2012 is expected with far less rainfall, though temperatures looking rather disappointing. As is the nature with long range forecasting the accuracy of this forecast is open to question. The pattern through May matched those projected from our initial summer thoughts published back at the start of April, and so on that basis at least part of our forecast has been vindicated. We will most likely re-visit this forecast, to ensure it is largely on track, during mid-July.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خوب سرانجام دمای هوای مشهد به 34+ رسید و فعلا از دوستان عزیز خداحافظی میکنم.:گل:
اینطوری نمیشه که. اروپا زمستون پارسال سردتر از نرمال بود. با آخرین پیش بینی که امیر محسن عزیز گذاشتن اگه درست متوجه شده باشم ظاهرا تابستون هم 2 درجه ای دما کمتر از نرماله. بعد پاییز و زمستون امسال هم کمتر از نرمال باشه. لابد ما هم همش بالای نرمال باشیم. این که نشد که.
ماهان جان بی زحمت اونجایی جلوی این جریانات مشکوک رو بگیر!
ماهان جان بی زحمت اونجایی جلوی این جریانات مشکوک رو بگیر!
بهزاد جان در مورد تابستون باهاتون موافقم که یه سه تا چهار درجه نسبت به این روزها گرم بشه، حداقل به 30 برسه بتونیم بریم توی دریاچه‌های اطراف یه تنی به آب بزنیم. برای زمستون آفتابش رو بیشتر کنن و از هوای مه‌آلود و ابری بدون بارشش کم کنن خیلی ازشون ممنون می‌شیم!
- وضعیت