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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
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Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام دوستان عزیز
خوب بالاخره امروز تونستم بیام:گل:
هواشناسی کانادا همچنان به وقوع دماهای کمینه سرد در منطقه ما اعتقاد راسخ داره خصوصا در بامداد علی الطلوع 13 اکتبر 2013 :شاد:
خوب بالاخره امروز تونستم بیام:گل:
هواشناسی کانادا همچنان به وقوع دماهای کمینه سرد در منطقه ما اعتقاد راسخ داره خصوصا در بامداد علی الطلوع 13 اکتبر 2013 :شاد:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این روزها با توجه به آنومالی دمای آب سطح دریا و سردتر از نرمال بودن دریای سرخ- خلیج همیشه پارس و شرق دریای مدیترانه رطوبت چندانی نصیب ناوه های شمال گذر کشور نمیشن و البته بحث سواحل غربی دریای کاسپین جداست چون اونجا دمای آب گرمتر از نرمال هست و با ریزش هوای سرد بارشهای خوبی در اون نقطه در انتظار هموطنان عزیزمون هست.
فقط این وسط یک مطلب خیلی مهمی به چشم میخوره و اون اینکه دمای آب از بخش جنوبی خلیج عدن به سمت کناره های کشور عمان که میشه همون بخش غربی دریای عرب و تا حدودی به سمت دریای عمان نسبتا گرم و مناسب هست ، با این حساب و برداشت شخصی من چنانچه ناوه شمالی به سمت این مناطق کشیده بشن ، گسیل رطوبت به سمت عرضهای جنوبی و تا حدودی مرکزی کشور فراهم میشه و احتمال وقوع ناپایداریهایی به شکل رگبار و رعد و برق پراکنده به همراه وزش باد نسبتا شدید در بخشهایی از استان فارس- کرمان- یزد- هرمزگان- بلوچستان -شرق اصفهان و بخشهایی از خراسان جنوبی و جنوب خراسان رضوی دور از انتظار نیست.
بارشهای نوار شمالی استانهای آذربایجان شرقی و غربی هم که همزمان با سواحل و در اثر رطوبت موجود در منطقه و فعالیت ناوه سرد شمالی هست که چند روزی کشور رو تحت تاثیر خودش قرار داده.
فقط این وسط یک مطلب خیلی مهمی به چشم میخوره و اون اینکه دمای آب از بخش جنوبی خلیج عدن به سمت کناره های کشور عمان که میشه همون بخش غربی دریای عرب و تا حدودی به سمت دریای عمان نسبتا گرم و مناسب هست ، با این حساب و برداشت شخصی من چنانچه ناوه شمالی به سمت این مناطق کشیده بشن ، گسیل رطوبت به سمت عرضهای جنوبی و تا حدودی مرکزی کشور فراهم میشه و احتمال وقوع ناپایداریهایی به شکل رگبار و رعد و برق پراکنده به همراه وزش باد نسبتا شدید در بخشهایی از استان فارس- کرمان- یزد- هرمزگان- بلوچستان -شرق اصفهان و بخشهایی از خراسان جنوبی و جنوب خراسان رضوی دور از انتظار نیست.
بارشهای نوار شمالی استانهای آذربایجان شرقی و غربی هم که همزمان با سواحل و در اثر رطوبت موجود در منطقه و فعالیت ناوه سرد شمالی هست که چند روزی کشور رو تحت تاثیر خودش قرار داده.
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
امروز شیب کاهش دمای مشهد بنظر خیلی تند هست:گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
فلش های سیاه رنگ دمای سردتر از نرمال آب
فلشهای قرمز : دمای گرمتر از نرمال آب
فلشهای سبز: مسیر احتمالی نفوذ جریانات گرم و مرطوب جنوبی به سمت کشور
فلشهای قرمز : دمای گرمتر از نرمال آب
فلشهای سبز: مسیر احتمالی نفوذ جریانات گرم و مرطوب جنوبی به سمت کشور
یاد داستان گیله مرد کتاب ادبیات فارسی دبیرستان افتادم!
"باران هنگامه كرده بود. باد چنگ می‌انداخت و می‌خواست زمین را از جا بكند. درختان كهن به جان یكدیگر افتاده بودند. از جنگل صدای شیون زنی كه زجرمی‌كشید، می‌آمد. غرش باد آوازهای خاموشی را افسار گسیخته كرده بود. رشته‌های باران آسمان تیره را به زمین گل‌آلود می‌دوخت. نهرها طغیان كرده و آبها از هر طرف جاری بود. دو مامور تفنگ به دست، گیله مرد را به فومن می‌بردند. او پتوی خاكستری رنگی به گردنش پیچیده و بسته‌ای كه از پشتش آویزان بود، در دست داشت. بی‌اعتنا به باد و بوران و مامور و جنگل و درختان تهدید كننده و تفنگ و مرگ، پاهای لختش را به آب می‌زد و قدمهای آهسته و كوتاه برمی‌داشت..."
"باران هنگامه كرده بود. باد چنگ می‌انداخت و می‌خواست زمین را از جا بكند. درختان كهن به جان یكدیگر افتاده بودند. از جنگل صدای شیون زنی كه زجرمی‌كشید، می‌آمد. غرش باد آوازهای خاموشی را افسار گسیخته كرده بود. رشته‌های باران آسمان تیره را به زمین گل‌آلود می‌دوخت. نهرها طغیان كرده و آبها از هر طرف جاری بود. دو مامور تفنگ به دست، گیله مرد را به فومن می‌بردند. او پتوی خاكستری رنگی به گردنش پیچیده و بسته‌ای كه از پشتش آویزان بود، در دست داشت. بی‌اعتنا به باد و بوران و مامور و جنگل و درختان تهدید كننده و تفنگ و مرگ، پاهای لختش را به آب می‌زد و قدمهای آهسته و كوتاه برمی‌داشت..."
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام
متاسفانه همینطوره
سلام و خسته نیاشید محسن جان. فعلا شمال و شمال شرق از این هوای سرد بهره برداری لازم رو می برن . فقط تداوم شرایط منفی نگران کننده خواهد بود
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
ممنون سامان عزیز
شما هم خسته نباشید.
خوبی تغییرات این دو تا شاخص این هست که بسته به فازهای انسو و MJO اثراتشون متفاوت هست.
امیدوارم در صورت منفی شدن NAO و AO در ماه نوامبر همینطوری روند انسو سیر نزولیش رو ادامه بده. چون این دو تا شاخص در ماه نوامبر اگه منفی بودنشون ادامه پیدا کنه همچون جام زهری بر بارش کشور تاثیر منفی خواهد داشت و پیامدش برای دما هم متاسفانه افزایش ذما خواهد بود.
من کلا با لانینا واسه زمستون خیلی موافقم
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Data updated 6 October 2013
دقیقا همینظوره شزایط خوب برای شنال و شمال شرق لانینا و فاز مثیت ao و nao است مثل سال 90
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
کلا NAO و AO وقتی منفی میشن ایران رو گرم میکنند و اروپا رو به شدت سرد.
بدون توجه به تاثیرات سایر شاخصهای دور پیوندی و مولفه های اتمسفری مثبت شدن شاخصهای مذکور باعث سرد شدن ایران میشه و منفی شدن این شاخص ها موجب گرم شدن ایران
در ارتباط با تاثییرات این شاخص ها بر بارشها کلی موضوعات مختلف وجود داره که بررسی جداگانه مورد نیاز هست
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
درود بر دوستان عزیز
اینجا 2-3ساعتی میشه که هوا ابری شده و باد نسبتا خنکی هم میوزه،فکرنکنم کمینه ی امشب تک رقمی بشه،چون رطوبت نسبتا بالاست{77درصد!!}،ولی بیشینه ی فردا قطعا کاهش شدیدی خواهد داشت!!حتی زیر 20!!!
اینم وضعیت فعلی رشت:
اینجا 2-3ساعتی میشه که هوا ابری شده و باد نسبتا خنکی هم میوزه،فکرنکنم کمینه ی امشب تک رقمی بشه،چون رطوبت نسبتا بالاست{77درصد!!}،ولی بیشینه ی فردا قطعا کاهش شدیدی خواهد داشت!!حتی زیر 20!!!
اینم وضعیت فعلی رشت:
Rasht
Weather map, Iran
Weather map, Iran
Current conditions
+12 °C
8 m/s
Overcast and light rain
Feels Like: +12°
Barometer: 1026.0 hPa
Dewpoint: +12°
Humidity: 100%
Visibility: 2 km
+12 °C
Overcast and light rain
Feels Like: +12°
Barometer: 1026.0 hPa
Dewpoint: +12°
Humidity: 100%
Visibility: 2 km
محمد بجنورد
کاربر ويژه
احتمال رستگار شدن اردبیل هم وجود داره آآآآ!!!
Ardabil
Weather map, Iran
Weather map, Iran
Current conditions
+3 °C
5 m/s
Overcast
Feels Like: -1°
Barometer: 1025.6 hPa
Dewpoint: +3°
Humidity: 100%
Visibility: 3 km
+3 °C
Overcast
Feels Like: -1°
Barometer: 1025.6 hPa
Dewpoint: +3°
Humidity: 100%
Visibility: 3 km
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
NWS Staff Walks to Work in Blizzard Despite Shutdown
By Andrew Freedman
Follow @afreedma
During the government shutdown, the 122 National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices across the country are still operating, issuing potentially life-saving forecasts and warnings. "Neither snow nor rain" is part of the unofficial motto of the U.S. Postal Service. However, NWS employees in Rapid City, S.D. seem to have taken that motto to heart.
The record snowstorm in Rapid City, S.D. buried this Dodge Durango truck.
Credit: @MsXtine/twitter
Like most other federal workers during the shutdown, the NWS meteorologists are not getting paid right now, and are hoping to receive back pay for work performed during this period. Not only are the meteorologists working for no pay, at least temporarily, but they’ve had to deal with some truly exceptional weather conditions this past weekend that have posed forecasting challenges and even put them in harm’s way.
A record-breaking early season blizzard struck a number of states from the northern Rockies to the Northern High Plains on October 4-5, dumping as much as 4 feet of snow and piling the snow into drifts up to 10 feet high in places. Those conditions created hurdles for NWS staff that would be tough to surmount under any circumstances, least of all during a government shutdown when offices are short-staffed and support services, such as technical support from NWS headquarters, are stretched thin.
Below is a message sent from the NWS forecast office in Rapid City to the NWS Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, Mo. on Sunday morning at 9:09 Central Time. This was sent to Climate Central from an NWS meteorologist who was not authorized to share any information related to the government shutdown, and some of the details contained within the message were confirmed with a staff member from the Rapid City office on Monday morning. The employee said the message speaks to the "dedication" of the NWS staff during the shutdown.
(This message has been edited to decode some of the acronyms.)
"Access to the office is still blocked. Two employees were able to hike in around some obstructions, but it is not possible to drive out of the parking lot due to snow drifts and downed trees in the neighborhood. The SOO (one who hiked in) is attempting to take two stranded employees home this morning. One forecaster hiked in for his mid shift last night, and I sent him home so he can come back tonight. Of the three who are on duty at this time, two have been here since 7 a.m. Friday, and I have been here since 3 p.m. Friday. We have two NWR (NOAA Weather Radio) transmitters down: Terry Peak and Rapid City. We have three ASOSs (Automated Surface Observing Stations) down: IEN (Pine Ridge, S.D.), RAP (Rapid City, S.D.), and PHP (Philip, S.D.).”
“We are on commercial power which has been stable since yesterday evening. Rapid City is pretty much paralyzed, and recovery and repair operations are in full swing. We have heard that the governor called in the national guard. Conference call briefing expected to take place later this morning. There is some concern about the potential for flooding with temperatures warming up quickly tomorrow and melting off the large snowpack. we have 1 to 4 inches of liquid equivalent on the ground and a big rain storm in the models for Friday. 8:09 a.m. MDT"
Winds during the blizzard gusted to near hurricane force (74 mph), topping out at 71 mph in Ellsworth, South Dakota, and 68 mph in Rapid City.
The scene in the parking lot of the Rapid City, S.D. NWS forecast office during the blizzard, taken on Oct. 5.
Credit: NWS via Facebook.
The Associated Press reported that roads were impassable in Rapid City due to stuck vehicles, massive snow drifts, and downed trees and power lines. Blizzard conditions, with at least three hours straight of visibility down to 1/8th of a mile, occurred in Rapid City during the storm.
A whopping 48 inches of snow fell in Deadwood, S.D. For perspective, Deadwood receives 6.6 inches of snow in an average October according to data from the Western Regional Climate Center.
Further southeast, Rapid City picked up 23.1 inches of snow, making it the second heaviest snowstorm on record there, and the top October snowstorm on record. It was also the city’s third-heaviest one-day snowfall total. Rapid City was under the gun back in April, when 22.4 inches of snow fell on April 8-10, 2013 according to weather.com. Heavy snow also fell in Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.
A request for comment has been sent to NOAA Public Affairs in Washington, although many employees there have been furloughed during the shutdown.
While the weather service forecast offices are open, employees are not allowed to engage in their typical full range of activities, and only emergency maintenance is allowed during the shutdown, which has no end in sight. Much of NOAA’s research activities have also stopped or been slowed.
- Published: October 7th, 2013 , Last Updated: October 7th, 2013
By Andrew Freedman Follow @afreedma
During the government shutdown, the 122 National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices across the country are still operating, issuing potentially life-saving forecasts and warnings. "Neither snow nor rain" is part of the unofficial motto of the U.S. Postal Service. However, NWS employees in Rapid City, S.D. seem to have taken that motto to heart.
Credit: @MsXtine/twitter
Like most other federal workers during the shutdown, the NWS meteorologists are not getting paid right now, and are hoping to receive back pay for work performed during this period. Not only are the meteorologists working for no pay, at least temporarily, but they’ve had to deal with some truly exceptional weather conditions this past weekend that have posed forecasting challenges and even put them in harm’s way.
A record-breaking early season blizzard struck a number of states from the northern Rockies to the Northern High Plains on October 4-5, dumping as much as 4 feet of snow and piling the snow into drifts up to 10 feet high in places. Those conditions created hurdles for NWS staff that would be tough to surmount under any circumstances, least of all during a government shutdown when offices are short-staffed and support services, such as technical support from NWS headquarters, are stretched thin.
Below is a message sent from the NWS forecast office in Rapid City to the NWS Central Region Headquarters in Kansas City, Mo. on Sunday morning at 9:09 Central Time. This was sent to Climate Central from an NWS meteorologist who was not authorized to share any information related to the government shutdown, and some of the details contained within the message were confirmed with a staff member from the Rapid City office on Monday morning. The employee said the message speaks to the "dedication" of the NWS staff during the shutdown.
(This message has been edited to decode some of the acronyms.)
"Access to the office is still blocked. Two employees were able to hike in around some obstructions, but it is not possible to drive out of the parking lot due to snow drifts and downed trees in the neighborhood. The SOO (one who hiked in) is attempting to take two stranded employees home this morning. One forecaster hiked in for his mid shift last night, and I sent him home so he can come back tonight. Of the three who are on duty at this time, two have been here since 7 a.m. Friday, and I have been here since 3 p.m. Friday. We have two NWR (NOAA Weather Radio) transmitters down: Terry Peak and Rapid City. We have three ASOSs (Automated Surface Observing Stations) down: IEN (Pine Ridge, S.D.), RAP (Rapid City, S.D.), and PHP (Philip, S.D.).”
“We are on commercial power which has been stable since yesterday evening. Rapid City is pretty much paralyzed, and recovery and repair operations are in full swing. We have heard that the governor called in the national guard. Conference call briefing expected to take place later this morning. There is some concern about the potential for flooding with temperatures warming up quickly tomorrow and melting off the large snowpack. we have 1 to 4 inches of liquid equivalent on the ground and a big rain storm in the models for Friday. 8:09 a.m. MDT"
Winds during the blizzard gusted to near hurricane force (74 mph), topping out at 71 mph in Ellsworth, South Dakota, and 68 mph in Rapid City.
Credit: NWS via Facebook.
The Associated Press reported that roads were impassable in Rapid City due to stuck vehicles, massive snow drifts, and downed trees and power lines. Blizzard conditions, with at least three hours straight of visibility down to 1/8th of a mile, occurred in Rapid City during the storm.
A whopping 48 inches of snow fell in Deadwood, S.D. For perspective, Deadwood receives 6.6 inches of snow in an average October according to data from the Western Regional Climate Center.
Further southeast, Rapid City picked up 23.1 inches of snow, making it the second heaviest snowstorm on record there, and the top October snowstorm on record. It was also the city’s third-heaviest one-day snowfall total. Rapid City was under the gun back in April, when 22.4 inches of snow fell on April 8-10, 2013 according to weather.com. Heavy snow also fell in Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.
A request for comment has been sent to NOAA Public Affairs in Washington, although many employees there have been furloughed during the shutdown.
While the weather service forecast offices are open, employees are not allowed to engage in their typical full range of activities, and only emergency maintenance is allowed during the shutdown, which has no end in sight. Much of NOAA’s research activities have also stopped or been slowed.
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