alirezamousavi
New member
Maya baresh ha dar Mashhad edame
-
توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
alirezamousavi
New member
بارش های مشهد تا کی ادامه داره
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درود دوستان
علیرغم اینکه فرودگاه در 3 آپدبت بارش گزارش کرده ولی اینجا در غرب مشهد فقط آسمون ابری هست و یکقطره هم بارون نمیاد:ناراحت:
علیرغم اینکه فرودگاه در 3 آپدبت بارش گزارش کرده ولی اینجا در غرب مشهد فقط آسمون ابری هست و یکقطره هم بارون نمیاد:ناراحت:
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
سلام
حرفی نمیمونه
آبادان:
حرفی نمیمونه
آبادان:
همونطور که انتظار می رقت بارشهایی اندک و پراکنده دیشب و امروز رخ داد که در تلطیف هوا موثر بود . روز یکشنبه و چهارشنبه نیز بارش پراکنده واسه شمال شرق دیده میشه که امیدوارم رطوبت بیشتری گسیل بشه به این منطقه. ظاهرا هوای سردی روز چهارشنبه سیستمو همراهی میکنه که امیدوارم رطوبت گسیلی از پهنه خزر هم بیشتر بشه :گل:
آخرین ویرایش:
![qpz9mivig4vs74rqyqhb.bmp](http://[URL="http://www.up.iranjoman.com/"][IMG]http://www.up.iranjoman.com/images/qpz9mivig4vs74rqyqhb.bmp)
alirezamousavi
New member
داداش اون هوای سردی که گفتی همراه برفه برای کی هست
واسه سه شنبه شب تا چهار شنبه البته بیشتر سرماست تا بارش
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
دوستان :شاد2::شاد::شاد2:
سایت ودر دات کام یک پیش بینی عجیب و غریب واسه مشهد کرده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
خیلی حرفه این سایت با 80 درصد قطعیت در پیش بینی این موضوع رو اعلام کرده چون اصولا سایت خیلی بدبینیه این سایت:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mashhad+IRMK0668:1:IR
سایت ودر دات کام یک پیش بینی عجیب و غریب واسه مشهد کرده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
خیلی حرفه این سایت با 80 درصد قطعیت در پیش بینی این موضوع رو اعلام کرده چون اصولا سایت خیلی بدبینیه این سایت:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mashhad+IRMK0668:1:IR
دوستان :شاد2::شاد::شاد2:
سایت ودر دات کام یک پیش بینی عجیب و غریب واسه مشهد کرده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
خیلی حرفه این سایت با 80 درصد قطعیت در پیش بینی این موضوع رو اعلام کرده چون اصولا سایت خیلی بدبینیه این سایت:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mashhad+IRMK0668:1:IR
سلام امیر جان
ممنون بخاطر کیک تولدت:گل::خنده2:
مثل اینکه امسال زمستون و برف میخواد از مشهد شروع بشه
ممنون امیر محسن جان خیلی خوشحال شدم امیدوارم محقق بشه
mohammad80
New member
دوستان :شاد2::شاد::شاد2:
سایت ودر دات کام یک پیش بینی عجیب و غریب واسه مشهد کرده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
خیلی حرفه این سایت با 80 درصد قطعیت در پیش بینی این موضوع رو اعلام کرده چون اصولا سایت خیلی بدبینیه این سایت:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mashhad+IRMK0668:1:IR
برای سواحل جنوبی دریای خزر چی پیش بینی کرده؟؟؟/
دوستان :شاد2::شاد::شاد2:
سایت ودر دات کام یک پیش بینی عجیب و غریب واسه مشهد کرده!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
خیلی حرفه این سایت با 80 درصد قطعیت در پیش بینی این موضوع رو اعلام کرده چون اصولا سایت خیلی بدبینیه این سایت:
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mashhad+IRMK0668:1:IR
سلام محسن جان متاسفانه ودر در اسم مکان ها دچار اشتباه شده اگه MAP رو بزنین میبینین این پیش بینی ماله یه جایی نزدیکه همدانه .
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
خواهش میکنم ولی ظاهرا این خوشحالی ما خیلی کوتاه بود:ناراحت:
راستش با توجه به نقشه ها خیلی واسم عجیب بود و بررسی بیشتر مشخص کرد که این مشهد در واقع مشهد ما نیست و مشهد استان مرکزی هست!!!!!!!!!!
درود بر همه دوستان
دیروز هوای اصفهان به معنی واقعی عالی بود.
الان چک میکردم برای اصفهان از سه شنبه تا شنبه هفته آینده بارندگی هست برای تهران هم بارش هسن اما کمتر.
فقط ای کاش اون مرکز بارش 200 میلیمتری به داخل خاک ایران منتقل میشد.
Sent from my GT-I9100G using Tapatalk 2
دیروز هوای اصفهان به معنی واقعی عالی بود.
الان چک میکردم برای اصفهان از سه شنبه تا شنبه هفته آینده بارندگی هست برای تهران هم بارش هسن اما کمتر.
فقط ای کاش اون مرکز بارش 200 میلیمتری به داخل خاک ایران منتقل میشد.
Sent from my GT-I9100G using Tapatalk 2
پیوست ها
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]** SIGNS OF PATTERN CHANGE LATE NOV / EARLY DEC GROWING Posted by wxrisk | GENERAL,WINTER 2013-14 | Friday 15 November 2013 3:16 am
STARDATE 2311.14 2200 EST
Most of the forecasts PWSIPs (Private Weather Service Info providers) as well as CPC called for November 2013 to be a warmer than normal month. And at the end of October I was one of those that also was forecasting a pretty mild November for most of the country east the Rockies.
Even though I backed off of that idea back on NOV 10 …the overall pattern actually is unfavorable for SUSTAINED cold and if you like winter weather … this pattern is very hostile towards significant winter weather over the eastern half of country. Of course we have had two significant shots of very cold air over the eastern half the country and a third blast is coming NOV 18-22 depending on your location. But the key point here is that these blast of cold air are only lasting for two with three days before they quickly moved off the coast and the pattern turns milder.
Still.. NONE of these blast of cold were showing up in anybody’s forecast for November 2013. T he cold air has been very impressive even if short lived. That being said it is important not to read too much into the November pattern. On the one thing you COULD make the argument that all these surprise cold air masses means something for the Winter. On the other hand you can say ….”Ah. the cold air has been short lived and is been a lot of mild temperatures in between…”
For reasons that I cannot figure out a large number private Energy Service providers during the month of October and November have committed to a mild and in some cases it extremely mild WINTER 2013-14 forecast. Not just the folks over Accu Buinder or at CPC . But I know for fact that several other well known private weather information providers are calling for pretty mild winter— such as CWxG EARTH RISK (formally weather bug) as well as CPC. In addition there HAS an awful lot of speculation and really bad forecasting and reasoning being displayed on many of the weather forum boards — specifically American weather forms and one over in Europe .
Sure there are few Meteorologists who are calling for either a normal winter or some what colder and snowier than normal winter over the eastern half of the country. But not too many I know WX SOUTH is and Joe B is and a few other energy meteorologist in private companies. Clearly the bias however is against the idea of a seasonal or colder than normal winter over the central and eastern half of the country and in some cases over most of North America the.
I wll get into that a little later. In the meantime there are strong indications that the overall pattern is about to change. The current pattern on a hemispheric scale still features that +AO … still features the +NAO… the +EPO/ -PNA and a southeast US ridge. As long as these features remain in the current phase there is no chance of getting any sort of sustained winter weather in the country east the Mississippi River.
However all the data continues to show that the strong +EPO (a extremely strong and large positive 500 MB height anomaly ) over the the Aleutian islands… is continuing to retrograde . The strong model agreement with the retrogression has major implications for the overall pattern and the upcoming pattern change. The +EPO continues to move northwestward and will eventually clear Alaska and the Bering sea and move into the Eastern Siberia . This movement causes major changes in the overall pattern.
FIRST it establishes a cross polar flow of arctic air from Siberia into the North Pole and then into North Central Canada.
SECOND,.. this movement displaces the/ huge vortex over the arctic circle / north pole and this in turn FORCES the AO from Positive to Negative.
THIRD the deep trough over the West Coast gets displaced into the central and eastern portions of the country and FOURTH the NAO shifts from Positive to Negative .
All of this takes place ONLY because the strong positive anomaly over the Aleutian islands retrogrades NORTHWEST into Eastern Siberia . If for any reason this does NOT happen then the entire forecast for a pattern change developing in the last week of November and the first week of December breaks down completely.
STARDATE 2311.14 2200 EST
Most of the forecasts PWSIPs (Private Weather Service Info providers) as well as CPC called for November 2013 to be a warmer than normal month. And at the end of October I was one of those that also was forecasting a pretty mild November for most of the country east the Rockies.
Even though I backed off of that idea back on NOV 10 …the overall pattern actually is unfavorable for SUSTAINED cold and if you like winter weather … this pattern is very hostile towards significant winter weather over the eastern half of country. Of course we have had two significant shots of very cold air over the eastern half the country and a third blast is coming NOV 18-22 depending on your location. But the key point here is that these blast of cold air are only lasting for two with three days before they quickly moved off the coast and the pattern turns milder.
Still.. NONE of these blast of cold were showing up in anybody’s forecast for November 2013. T he cold air has been very impressive even if short lived. That being said it is important not to read too much into the November pattern. On the one thing you COULD make the argument that all these surprise cold air masses means something for the Winter. On the other hand you can say ….”Ah. the cold air has been short lived and is been a lot of mild temperatures in between…”
For reasons that I cannot figure out a large number private Energy Service providers during the month of October and November have committed to a mild and in some cases it extremely mild WINTER 2013-14 forecast. Not just the folks over Accu Buinder or at CPC . But I know for fact that several other well known private weather information providers are calling for pretty mild winter— such as CWxG EARTH RISK (formally weather bug) as well as CPC. In addition there HAS an awful lot of speculation and really bad forecasting and reasoning being displayed on many of the weather forum boards — specifically American weather forms and one over in Europe .
Sure there are few Meteorologists who are calling for either a normal winter or some what colder and snowier than normal winter over the eastern half of the country. But not too many I know WX SOUTH is and Joe B is and a few other energy meteorologist in private companies. Clearly the bias however is against the idea of a seasonal or colder than normal winter over the central and eastern half of the country and in some cases over most of North America the.
I wll get into that a little later. In the meantime there are strong indications that the overall pattern is about to change. The current pattern on a hemispheric scale still features that +AO … still features the +NAO… the +EPO/ -PNA and a southeast US ridge. As long as these features remain in the current phase there is no chance of getting any sort of sustained winter weather in the country east the Mississippi River.
However all the data continues to show that the strong +EPO (a extremely strong and large positive 500 MB height anomaly ) over the the Aleutian islands… is continuing to retrograde . The strong model agreement with the retrogression has major implications for the overall pattern and the upcoming pattern change. The +EPO continues to move northwestward and will eventually clear Alaska and the Bering sea and move into the Eastern Siberia . This movement causes major changes in the overall pattern.
FIRST it establishes a cross polar flow of arctic air from Siberia into the North Pole and then into North Central Canada.
SECOND,.. this movement displaces the/ huge vortex over the arctic circle / north pole and this in turn FORCES the AO from Positive to Negative.
THIRD the deep trough over the West Coast gets displaced into the central and eastern portions of the country and FOURTH the NAO shifts from Positive to Negative .
All of this takes place ONLY because the strong positive anomaly over the Aleutian islands retrogrades NORTHWEST into Eastern Siberia . If for any reason this does NOT happen then the entire forecast for a pattern change developing in the last week of November and the first week of December breaks down completely.
- وضعیت