ممکنه یک طوفان استوأی جنوب هند شکل بگیره و به سمت دریای عرب بیاد ،باید ببینیم چی میشه ،تا دیروز احتمال تقویتش به صورت سیکلون پائین بود اما توی آخرین بولتن زیاد شده
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 040001Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 031810Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
