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مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
وقتی در نمودار دوم VP200 در محدوده 60-0 درجه به زیر صفر رفت اونجاست که باید منتظر بارش های خوب باشیم
چه نمودار جالبه، کل کره زمین رو نشون میده!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Major El Nino events likely to double in next century
20 Jan 2014
20 Jan 2014
The worst El Nino weather events, which are linked to devastating natural disasters and reduced Australian rainfall, will double with dangerous climate change, research has found.
In a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, an international team of researchers, including Australian scientists, for the first time predict ''extreme'' El Nino events will occur once every 10 years - instead of every 20 years as in the previous century - as the planet continues to warm due to human activity.
El Nino is a natural climatic event that occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean periodically rise, shifting rainfall patterns. A lead author of the study, Dr Wenju Cai from CSIRO, said the further the warming in the east Pacific stretched, and the higher the temperatures reached, the more extreme the El Nino.
Australian scientist involved in the report: Dr Wenju Cai. Photo: CSIRO
The researchers used 20 climate models to project the impact on extreme El Nino frequency of global greenhouse emissions continuing at current high rates.
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They concluded that total occurrences of El Nino would remain largely unchanged but extreme events will occur twice as often between 1991-2090 as they did in the previous hundred years.
The researchers defined an extreme El Nino event as such a large pattern shift occurs that rainfall exceeded five millimetres a day in the ''eastern equatorial Pacific'' region around parts of Central and South America. They found global warming would alter background climate conditions, meaning it would take weaker changes in ocean temperatures to prompt an extreme El Nino.
''With a projected large increase in extreme El Nino occurrences, we should expect more occurrences of devastating weather events, which will have pronounced implications for 21st-century climate,'' the study says.
The researchers point to El Nino in 1982-83 and 1997-98 as examples of extreme events that wreaked havoc and foreshadowed the dangers increased occurrences would present.
El Nino typically results in higher rainfall in some parts of South America, risking floods, and lower than average rain in south-east Asia and Australia, prompting drought, heatwaves and bushfire.
Previous US studies have found that the 1997-98 extreme El Nino - sometimes called ''the climate event of the 20th century'' - alone caused between $US35 billion and $US45 billion in damage and 23,000 deaths worldwide.
Dr Cai said the event sparked huge wildfires in Indonesia and floods in Ecuador and Peru.
In the natural world, the 1997-98 event destroyed much of the anchovy population in the eastern equatorial Pacific, caused coral bleaching and decimated the native bird populations of the Galapagos Islands.
Dr Cai said the 1982-83 El Nino event created the dry conditions that led to the 1983 dust storms in Melbourne and subsequent Ash Wednesday bushfires in southern Australia that killed 75 people.
''One of the characteristics of an extreme El Nino event is it tends to hit us a lot earlier. So it really creates a scene for dry conditions in terms of bushfire risk,'' he said.
Previous research by the Bureau of Meteorology of the 12 strongest El Nino events last century found the phenomenon caused significantly below-average winter and spring rainfall across eastern Australia.
The research came as Victoria, South Australia and parts of NSW sweltered through a fierce heatwave last week. But while heatwaves are often associated with the presence of El Nino, last week's temperatures came in ''neutral'' climatic conditions.
Solar Update
Good morning. Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Monday. Solar activity remains at low levels with minor C-Class flares detected. Most activity is being observed around sunspot 1959 located in the southeast quadrant. The active region (1959) showed spot growth during the past 12 hours within the trailing section of the group. Elsewhere, a new sunspot numbered 1961, quickly formed in the southwest quadrant and should be monitored. A spotted region is rotating into view off the east limb and looks to be the return of old sunspot 1937 from the previous rotation. All other regions, including newly numbered region 1962, remain stable. There will continue to be a chance for at least C-Class solar flares.
Good morning. Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Monday. Solar activity remains at low levels with minor C-Class flares detected. Most activity is being observed around sunspot 1959 located in the southeast quadrant. The active region (1959) showed spot growth during the past 12 hours within the trailing section of the group. Elsewhere, a new sunspot numbered 1961, quickly formed in the southwest quadrant and should be monitored. A spotted region is rotating into view off the east limb and looks to be the return of old sunspot 1937 from the previous rotation. All other regions, including newly numbered region 1962, remain stable. There will continue to be a chance for at least C-Class solar flares.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.UPDATED 2014 Jan 20 1230 UTC.24 hr Summary...Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1959 (S24E52, Dai/beta)produced a C3/Sf flare at 20/0220 UTC, which was the largest event ofthe period. Region 1959 continued to show a minor growth trend. NewRegions 1961 (S12W28, Dri/beta) and 1962 (S37E12, Cro/beta) emerged onthe disk fairly rapidly but both remained unproductive as of the time ofthis report. The other regions on the disk were either stable ordecaying. A 06-degree filament eruption centered near S18E62 wasobserved on GONG H-Alpha imagery between 19/1715 - 1743 UTC. NoEarth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period..Forecast...Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for R1-R2(Minor-Moderate) flares for the next three days (20 - 22 Jan).
Major El Nino events likely to double in next century
20 Jan 2014
The worst El Nino weather events, which are linked to devastating natural disasters and reduced Australian rainfall, will double with dangerous climate change, research has found.
In a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, an international team of researchers, including Australian scientists, for the first time predict ''extreme'' El Nino events will occur once every 10 years - instead of every 20 years as in the previous century - as the planet continues to warm due to human activity.
El Nino is a natural climatic event that occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean periodically rise, shifting rainfall patterns. A lead author of the study, Dr Wenju Cai from CSIRO, said the further the warming in the east Pacific stretched, and the higher the temperatures reached, the more extreme the El Nino.
Australian scientist involved in the report: Dr Wenju Cai. Photo: CSIRO
The researchers used 20 climate models to project the impact on extreme El Nino frequency of global greenhouse emissions continuing at current high rates.
Advertisement
They concluded that total occurrences of El Nino would remain largely unchanged but extreme events will occur twice as often between 1991-2090 as they did in the previous hundred years.
The researchers defined an extreme El Nino event as such a large pattern shift occurs that rainfall exceeded five millimetres a day in the ''eastern equatorial Pacific'' region around parts of Central and South America. They found global warming would alter background climate conditions, meaning it would take weaker changes in ocean temperatures to prompt an extreme El Nino.
''With a projected large increase in extreme El Nino occurrences, we should expect more occurrences of devastating weather events, which will have pronounced implications for 21st-century climate,'' the study says.
The researchers point to El Nino in 1982-83 and 1997-98 as examples of extreme events that wreaked havoc and foreshadowed the dangers increased occurrences would present.
El Nino typically results in higher rainfall in some parts of South America, risking floods, and lower than average rain in south-east Asia and Australia, prompting drought, heatwaves and bushfire.
Previous US studies have found that the 1997-98 extreme El Nino - sometimes called ''the climate event of the 20th century'' - alone caused between $US35 billion and $US45 billion in damage and 23,000 deaths worldwide.
Dr Cai said the event sparked huge wildfires in Indonesia and floods in Ecuador and Peru.
In the natural world, the 1997-98 event destroyed much of the anchovy population in the eastern equatorial Pacific, caused coral bleaching and decimated the native bird populations of the Galapagos Islands.
Dr Cai said the 1982-83 El Nino event created the dry conditions that led to the 1983 dust storms in Melbourne and subsequent Ash Wednesday bushfires in southern Australia that killed 75 people.
''One of the characteristics of an extreme El Nino event is it tends to hit us a lot earlier. So it really creates a scene for dry conditions in terms of bushfire risk,'' he said.
Previous research by the Bureau of Meteorology of the 12 strongest El Nino events last century found the phenomenon caused significantly below-average winter and spring rainfall across eastern Australia.
The research came as Victoria, South Australia and parts of NSW sweltered through a fierce heatwave last week. But while heatwaves are often associated with the presence of El Nino, last week's temperatures came in ''neutral'' climatic conditions.
گل بود به سبزه نیز آراسته شد!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این نقشه رو خیلی دوست دارم.
دیروز که هرمزگان زیر بارش بود رو ببینید:
دیروز که هرمزگان زیر بارش بود رو ببینید:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
به سلامتی نینو به شرایط ارامش داره نزدیک میشه و بنظرم میشه دیگه از این به بعد ثبات رو در نقشه ها مشاهده کرد:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
این هم آخرین مانیتورینگ وضعیت MJO
محسن جان به نظر من پتانسیل مثبت شدن رو هم داره!به سلامتی نینو به شرایط ارامش داره نزدیک میشه و بنظرم میشه دیگه از این به بعد ثبات رو در نقشه ها مشاهده کرد:
داره میره در اون فازی که باید باشه!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
سلام آرش عزیز
خدا کنه بهرحال سرانجام خوبی داشته باشه!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
آرش جان
الان که مطابقت دادم دقیقا دلیل خشکی روزهای اینده همین فارهایی هست که دائما داره عوض میکنه
ابتدا فاز 7 که در شرایط فعلی بدترین گزینه ممکن هست!
بعد فاز 8 که آنومالی کاهش ارتفاع رو بر روی دریای سرخ نشون میده و نهایتا باز هم با سامانه های جنوب غربی- جنوب شرقی سر و کار خواهیم داشت.
و سرانجام فاز 1 که در حالت خنثی دریاهای جنوبی رو فعال میکنه - منطقه پشته به جتوب روسیه همون جاییکه این روزها پر بارش هست منتقل میشه.
اینها همه برای ماه ژانویه بود و بنظر فاز 1 از همه فازهایی که پیش بینی شده بهتره ولی ایده ال بارش در کشور خصوصا در نیمه شمالی نیست.
در ضمن بارشهایی که احتمال میره اینروزها در شمال غرب و نوار غربی رخ بده تحت تاثیر فاز منفی AO هست که این بارشها به سایر نقاط کشور با این پیش بینی ها و نوسانات نباید گسترده بشه.
سلام مجدد بر دوستان
میگم حالا امسال نهایتش میشه مثل سالهایی که برف نمیومد و خشک سالی بود، مهم اینه که اینجا دور هم داریم علم خودمون و کشور رو افزایش میدیم، بارش برف و بارون که دست ما نیست ولی همه لذت هواشناسی به دینامیک بودنشه و اینکه با هر موجی که وارد کشور میشه و پیش بینی که صورت میگیره تجربه و دانشمون بالاتر میره. یه مطلبی هست که چند وقته بهش فکر میکنم، اونم اینه که اگر هفته ای یه برف بالای 20 سانتیمتر داشتیم به نظرتون الان با این هیجان دنبال باریدن یه سانت برف بودیم؟ به نظرم، همین اقلیم محل زندگیمون هم در ارزش قائل شدن بسیار زیاد برای برف و بارون موثر بوده
میگم حالا امسال نهایتش میشه مثل سالهایی که برف نمیومد و خشک سالی بود، مهم اینه که اینجا دور هم داریم علم خودمون و کشور رو افزایش میدیم، بارش برف و بارون که دست ما نیست ولی همه لذت هواشناسی به دینامیک بودنشه و اینکه با هر موجی که وارد کشور میشه و پیش بینی که صورت میگیره تجربه و دانشمون بالاتر میره. یه مطلبی هست که چند وقته بهش فکر میکنم، اونم اینه که اگر هفته ای یه برف بالای 20 سانتیمتر داشتیم به نظرتون الان با این هیجان دنبال باریدن یه سانت برف بودیم؟ به نظرم، همین اقلیم محل زندگیمون هم در ارزش قائل شدن بسیار زیاد برای برف و بارون موثر بوده
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