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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل دوم( دي- بهمن-اسفند)
- شروع کننده موضوع heaven1
- تاریخ شروع
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از جمعه بعد از ظهر تا يکشنبه صبح بارشايي به صورت پيوسته داريم بيشتر هم به صورت برففورکا برای شنبه یه مقدارکی بارش زده برای مشهد
وحید - مشهد
کاربر ويژه
[h=4]Forecast
| The report was made 39 minutes ago, at 05:00 UTC |
| Forecast valid from 22 at 06 UTC to 23 at 12 UTC |
| Wind 4 m/s from theWest/Southwest |
| Visibility: 7000 m |
| Few clouds at a height of 914 m |
| Becoming from 22 at 21 UTC to 22 at 23 UTC |
| Wind 6 m/s from the Northeast |
| Visibility: 6000 m |
| Few clouds at a height of 914 m,Cumulonimbus. Scattered clouds at a height of 1067m Broken clouds at a height of 3048 m |
| Temporary from 23 at 01 UTC to 23 at 06 UTC |
| Visibility: 4000 m |
| snow rain |
انشالا با همین سیستم فردا که کسی ازش انتظاری هم نداره مشهد حداقل سپید مختصری میشه....
Amir-Hossein
کاربر ويژه
خوب با توجه به اينكه انتظار بر اينه كه عملكرد اين سيستم بهبود پبدا كنه انشالله ecm بهتر پيش بيني كرده و من با ecm موافق ترم!!!
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
Shifting El Niño Trend Foreshadows Early Spring -- Forecasters
The weather world's been talking for months about the prospect of the southern oscillation index tilting from La Niña to El Niño, a shift that normally signals more crop-friendly, mild and moisture-plentiful weather for the Midwest.
But as time's passed, those prospects have dimmed. Now, weather experts say a move back to El Niño may not happen within the next calendar year, if it does at all. Just in the last month alone, the likelihood of El Niño developing in the next 2 months or so have declined sharply, according to International Research Institute for Climate and Society chief forecaster Tony Barnston.
"Based on the latest models, the chance of an El Niño developing during the current (January-March) season is around 63%, down from 76% last month. These odds for the current season are similar to those issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI forecast on January 8," Barnston says. "The recent dip in sea-surface temperatures could be indicating an end to the El Niño conditions forecasted for much of the past year. Despite signals of an emerging El Niño from the ocean and atmosphere at various times throughout 2014, the systems of the sea and sky have yet to couple."
This doesn't mean a wholesale shift away from conditions typical of an El Niño system; it simply means the likelihood of the hallmark conditions of El Niño dominating the weather are lower. That has some ag weather specialists speculating that crop moisture could come up short in some of the areas that depend on the critical upcoming spring months to refuel soils that most of the year are parched.
"Chances for an El Niño continue to fade. Since [February through April] marks the beginning of the wetter portion of our year, it is of great interest. Unfortunately, the precipitation outlook is neutral for most of the state. That means it is equally likely to fall in any of the three categories: Above normal, normal or below normal," says Kansas State University climatologist Mary Knapp. "Only the western portions of the state have an increased chance of above normal precipitation. While this would be welcome, even above-normal precipitation will result in limited improvement to the drought situation in the region."
And, there are temperature implications in her state of Kansas, too, Knapp adds. "The 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-month outlooks are all showing an increased probability of cooler-than-normal temperatures. This does not mean that the excessively cold temperatures of early January will be repeated. The most favorable pattern would be to have the cold weather dominate in February rather than April."
Despite the potential negative implications of a move away from El Niño for parts of the nation, including central and western regions, there are bright sides to a more neutral southern oscillation index (SOI). Farmers are already speculating that this spring could see an earlier-than-normal start to spring planting, and weather experts agree based on the SOI's movement -- or lack thereof -- lately.
"We could be looking at neutral conditions later this spring and summer. Following a weak El Niño, into the spring and summer, we generally see a drier pattern in some areas of the delta and possible into the ohio valley for the spring," says Harvey Freese, ag meteorologist with Freese-Notis Weather, Inc. "The drier weather pattern could allow for early planting. Summer looks to be warmer with less than normal rainfall in some areas of the Delta and southeast. We could see above-normal rainfall in some areas of the northern Corn Belt."
The prospect of early planting is a welcome one for many farmers, especially those who fought Mother Nature to get last year's crops in the ground on time. But, it's a double-edged sword; on one hand, planting may go much more smoothly than the last 2 years, but on the other hand, such a departure from the recent norm could slam grain prices that are already struggling to stay in positive territory and will likely continue to do so through spring.
"Corn doesn't necessarily have to bid acres even though we know if the growing season is average at best, it will wish it would have. Soybeans have more cushion and will be the go-to crop for those tight on operating capital or farming junk ground. First step will be what crop insurance sets at," says Agriculture.com Marketing Talk veteran advisor Mizzou_Tiger. "An early spring might help balance this bean thing. Interesting acres situation we have to deal with too. 2012 and 2014 combine corn and beans was 174. Hard to imagine this 177 number some are using especially when FSA and NASS are not reconciled yet. Guess what I am saying is, hedge wisely. We could likely see a whipsaw. Bouncing up into early spring. Tank it as planters roll. Bring it back in late summer if forecast holds. We have had 2 bigger crops in a cut input environment going into 2015. Add in some stress and stocks-to-use could get interesting."
- Chat the prospects of an early spring in Marketing Talk Page 1 of 2 | Next
January 21 2015, 1.11am ESTEl Niño could mean 2015 is even hotter than last year’s scorcher
El Niño means drought in Australia – and floods in America. Len Matthews, CC BY-NC-SAIt’s confirmed: 2014 produced the highest global temperatures since records began in the 1880s. As if that’s not cause enough for concern, this year threatens to see the return of El Niño, which like some enraged climate-driven Godzilla, could emerge from the depths of the South Pacific and lay waste to entire regions.
While the effects can be felt around the world, it is nations bordering the Pacific that are most affected by this natural phenomenon which puts parts of the Earth’s climate into reverse. Rain that would have fallen in northern Australia and Southeast Asia falls instead on the west coast of the Americas. Messing with the hydrological cycle can cause both major droughts and floods on different continents. El Niño can at the same cause crops to fail because of lack of rainfall while on the other side of the world wash away entire communities.
El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is the name given to the phenomenon of regular and sometimes large annual variations in sea surface temperatures, air pressure and rainfall. El Niño is characterised by significant warming of portions of the Pacific while La Niña sees lower temperatures in these waters.
During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific increase significantly. This weakens the trade winds that blow westwards across the South Pacific. One result of this is that the warm waters that were previously concentrated into an area of the south west Pacific towards Australasia spread out eastwards across the whole ocean. This delivers a pulse of heat from the seas to the atmosphere.
Click to zoom in. Delphine Digout, Grid-ArendalClick to enlarge
It is no coincidence that previous temperature records have been broken during El Niño years. One of the most significant El Niño events in the 20th century happened over 1997-98 and 1998 was, until last week, the hottest year ever. It hasn’t escaped people’s attention that 2014 snatched the title even without a helping hand from an El Niño.
This year we may well find out what El Niño-assisted temperatures might be like as a number of meteorological agencies are giving about a 60% chance for El Niño over the northern hemisphere winter in 2015, perhaps persisting until spring. This estimate is based on something called the Oceanic Niño Index which is a measurement of temperature anomalies in three regions of the equatorial Pacific. If this is greater than 0.5°C for three consecutive months then alarm bells start ringing.
That temperature change may not sound much, but a lot of energy is required to increase the temperature of billions of litres of water by even half a degree. Water stores an immense amount of heat compared with air such that it takes 1,000 times more energy to heat a cubic metre of water by 1°C as it does the same volume of air. Next time you boil the kettle, watch the electricity meter whizz round for a sense of this energy cost.
The bottom of the oceans are cold, approximately 4°C three kilometres down. That represents a massive heat sink in which to hide extra energy from the surface. Since the 1970s, more than 90% of the additional heat due to higher greenhouse gas levels has been absorbed into the oceans. Some have argued that avoiding certain changes in ocean heat contentis a more useful safeguard against dangerous climate change than the currently employed 2°C threshold of surface warming.
Given their importance to climate dynamics, understanding what is going on in the oceans is vital if we are to produce useful scenarios for future climate change. Research published in the journal Science last year proposed the hypothesis that more heat is being drawn down into the ocean depths rather than warming the Earth’s surface, perhaps explaining the global warming “hiatus” observed since 1998. The record breaking 1997-98 El Niño may even have been an important driver of this large scale change in ocean currents.
Does that mean there are reasons for optimism? Could a form of negative feedback be operating whereby higher surface temperatures lead to more heat being transferred from the surface to the ocean depths? Would this produce a braking effect on temperature increases? I think it’s fair to say this would have to be pure speculation. Climate-ocean dynamics are too complex to be able to discern such a process right now.
What is certain is that there are large changes occurring in the amount of energy in the Earth’s oceans. One way or another this will have an effect on atmospheric processes and us surface dwellers.
It’s also worth remembering that since 1998 there has been a steady increase in both sea levels and ocean acidity while glaciers have continued to retreat.
Muir Glacier 1941 and 2004: now you see it, now you don’t. NSIDC, CC BY-SAClick to enlarge
The El Niño Southern Oscillation brings climate change into focus because it can produce such large and sudden changes in the weather. Current assessments are that an El Niño this year would likely be quite weak and nothing like the titan of 1997-98. The beast may continue to slumber. But unless there have been dramatic and long lasting changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, it will inevitably rise up and issue a roar that will be heard around the world.
For now, satellites peer down and monitor surface temperatures while arrays of buoys sample a range of parameters under the water. Fingers crossed they don’t detect a monstrous shape forming any time soon.
[h=4]REPUBLISH THIS ARTICLEWe believe in the free flow of information. We use aCreative Commons license, so you can republish our articles for free, online or in print.
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While the effects can be felt around the world, it is nations bordering the Pacific that are most affected by this natural phenomenon which puts parts of the Earth’s climate into reverse. Rain that would have fallen in northern Australia and Southeast Asia falls instead on the west coast of the Americas. Messing with the hydrological cycle can cause both major droughts and floods on different continents. El Niño can at the same cause crops to fail because of lack of rainfall while on the other side of the world wash away entire communities.
El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is the name given to the phenomenon of regular and sometimes large annual variations in sea surface temperatures, air pressure and rainfall. El Niño is characterised by significant warming of portions of the Pacific while La Niña sees lower temperatures in these waters.
During an El Niño event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific increase significantly. This weakens the trade winds that blow westwards across the South Pacific. One result of this is that the warm waters that were previously concentrated into an area of the south west Pacific towards Australasia spread out eastwards across the whole ocean. This delivers a pulse of heat from the seas to the atmosphere.
Click to zoom in. Delphine Digout, Grid-ArendalClick to enlargeIt is no coincidence that previous temperature records have been broken during El Niño years. One of the most significant El Niño events in the 20th century happened over 1997-98 and 1998 was, until last week, the hottest year ever. It hasn’t escaped people’s attention that 2014 snatched the title even without a helping hand from an El Niño.
This year we may well find out what El Niño-assisted temperatures might be like as a number of meteorological agencies are giving about a 60% chance for El Niño over the northern hemisphere winter in 2015, perhaps persisting until spring. This estimate is based on something called the Oceanic Niño Index which is a measurement of temperature anomalies in three regions of the equatorial Pacific. If this is greater than 0.5°C for three consecutive months then alarm bells start ringing.
That temperature change may not sound much, but a lot of energy is required to increase the temperature of billions of litres of water by even half a degree. Water stores an immense amount of heat compared with air such that it takes 1,000 times more energy to heat a cubic metre of water by 1°C as it does the same volume of air. Next time you boil the kettle, watch the electricity meter whizz round for a sense of this energy cost.
The bottom of the oceans are cold, approximately 4°C three kilometres down. That represents a massive heat sink in which to hide extra energy from the surface. Since the 1970s, more than 90% of the additional heat due to higher greenhouse gas levels has been absorbed into the oceans. Some have argued that avoiding certain changes in ocean heat contentis a more useful safeguard against dangerous climate change than the currently employed 2°C threshold of surface warming.
Given their importance to climate dynamics, understanding what is going on in the oceans is vital if we are to produce useful scenarios for future climate change. Research published in the journal Science last year proposed the hypothesis that more heat is being drawn down into the ocean depths rather than warming the Earth’s surface, perhaps explaining the global warming “hiatus” observed since 1998. The record breaking 1997-98 El Niño may even have been an important driver of this large scale change in ocean currents.
Does that mean there are reasons for optimism? Could a form of negative feedback be operating whereby higher surface temperatures lead to more heat being transferred from the surface to the ocean depths? Would this produce a braking effect on temperature increases? I think it’s fair to say this would have to be pure speculation. Climate-ocean dynamics are too complex to be able to discern such a process right now.
What is certain is that there are large changes occurring in the amount of energy in the Earth’s oceans. One way or another this will have an effect on atmospheric processes and us surface dwellers.
It’s also worth remembering that since 1998 there has been a steady increase in both sea levels and ocean acidity while glaciers have continued to retreat.
Muir Glacier 1941 and 2004: now you see it, now you don’t. NSIDC, CC BY-SAClick to enlargeThe El Niño Southern Oscillation brings climate change into focus because it can produce such large and sudden changes in the weather. Current assessments are that an El Niño this year would likely be quite weak and nothing like the titan of 1997-98. The beast may continue to slumber. But unless there have been dramatic and long lasting changes to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, it will inevitably rise up and issue a roar that will be heard around the world.
For now, satellites peer down and monitor surface temperatures while arrays of buoys sample a range of parameters under the water. Fingers crossed they don’t detect a monstrous shape forming any time soon.
[h=4]REPUBLISH THIS ARTICLEWe believe in the free flow of information. We use aCreative Commons license, so you can republish our articles for free, online or in print.
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For those of you hoping for maybe a little snow on Friday, it looks like that chance is about 0%. The mountains may see some snow mixing with rain, but it will be mostly wet weather for the higher elevations too. As for heavy rainfall, most of that will stay to our south. We'll be looking at light rain throughout the day, especially Friday afternoon.
Our next shot for snow would be Monday, as a clipper system moves in. Some of the models hinted at the development of a coastal low that could have brought in some moisture and cold air for the Upstate, but at this point it doesn't look likely. This system will swing in from the northeast, bring in cold, blustery condition, and the mountains will take most of its moisture! Snow in the mountains will be likely on Monday, and we could see it pile up a bit right along the Tennessee border.
So, the news isn't good for those of you who want a good Upstate snow in the near future. BUT, there is hope in the computer models. We stay pretty cold next week, and out pattern remains active. As we continue to see bursts of cold air from the north, the southern stream will remain active. Meaning that we'll have the opportunity for some lows pushing in from the gulf. I'd say we have about a 60% chance of seeing winter weather in the Upstate by late February. We'll see how that pans out.
If you are really into weather, you probably know about teleconnections. We look at certain patterns and forecasts for an idea of what kind of weather we'll experience over the next 30-60 days. Without going into major detail, most of those patterns are actually favoring warmer than normal temps in the upcoming weeks. The AO and NAO are forecast to be positive, while the PNA is forecast to go negative (all of that indicated possibly warmer weather). However, a weak El Nino should remain in place. which usually brings active and cooler weather to the southeast. So it's a tough call! If you want to learn more about these patterns you can check out Climate Prediction Center's website! I love that place!
I'll keep monitoring the models for a chance of winter weather, but for now I'm not seeing any major winter storms in our future.
Read more: Snow chances this week and beyond! - FOX Carolina 21
Our next shot for snow would be Monday, as a clipper system moves in. Some of the models hinted at the development of a coastal low that could have brought in some moisture and cold air for the Upstate, but at this point it doesn't look likely. This system will swing in from the northeast, bring in cold, blustery condition, and the mountains will take most of its moisture! Snow in the mountains will be likely on Monday, and we could see it pile up a bit right along the Tennessee border.
So, the news isn't good for those of you who want a good Upstate snow in the near future. BUT, there is hope in the computer models. We stay pretty cold next week, and out pattern remains active. As we continue to see bursts of cold air from the north, the southern stream will remain active. Meaning that we'll have the opportunity for some lows pushing in from the gulf. I'd say we have about a 60% chance of seeing winter weather in the Upstate by late February. We'll see how that pans out.
If you are really into weather, you probably know about teleconnections. We look at certain patterns and forecasts for an idea of what kind of weather we'll experience over the next 30-60 days. Without going into major detail, most of those patterns are actually favoring warmer than normal temps in the upcoming weeks. The AO and NAO are forecast to be positive, while the PNA is forecast to go negative (all of that indicated possibly warmer weather). However, a weak El Nino should remain in place. which usually brings active and cooler weather to the southeast. So it's a tough call! If you want to learn more about these patterns you can check out Climate Prediction Center's website! I love that place!
I'll keep monitoring the models for a chance of winter weather, but for now I'm not seeing any major winter storms in our future.
Read more: Snow chances this week and beyond! - FOX Carolina 21
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