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تجزیه و تحلیل وضعیت جوی در سال زراعی 93-94 /فصل دوم( دي- بهمن-اسفند)
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زمانيكه ecm و نرو‍ژ بارشهاي سنگين واسه اين روزها پيش بيني ميكردن يادتونه گفتم با اين وضعيت شاخصها ، فاتحه بارش مشهد خونده ميشه، گفتم گذر زمان همه چيزو مشخص كنه... بله اينم بارش ديروز 0.2 و البته بارش امروزم كه .... بگذريم. ديگه اينم يه برهه اي بود و بگذشت. اما همونطور كه ديروز هم گفتم نشانه اي از مثبت شدن وضعيت ديده ميشه و خدا رو شكر بعد از يك وقفه بارشي كه در اين ماهها بدجوري به ضرر شمال شرق تموم ميشه، ورق برخواهد گشت و دوباره به روزهاي خوب ميشه اميدوار بود اين مهم از 24 يا 25 مارچ رخ خواهد داد متاسفانه من امكان اپلود عكس هم ندارم
تبریک فرا رسیدن سال نو
تاریخ : چهارشنبه بیست و هفتم اسفند ۱۳۹۳
نویسنده : امیر محسن
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دمت گرم سامان جان عالی پیش بینی کردی ان شا الله که اوضاعمون بهتر بشه
For many years, China's climate patterns have been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a pattern of warming and cooling that shifts phases every 20 to 30 years. This pattern is so well established that many modelling tools are based on the assumption that the PDO is the dominant influence on China's climate; the influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) has received less attention.
Researchers from the US and China have discovered that in the early 1990s the balance shifted, and the AMO is now the dominating factor for China's climate. The scientists have also shown that this shift is a consequence of global warming.
"After the early 1990s, drought patterns in China are no longer influenced by the PDO, but rather the AMO," said Jin-Yi Yu from the University of California, Irvine. "We believe climate tools should be revised to include first-order effects of the AMO."
Yu and colleagues examined the decadal variations of summer-drought frequency across Eastern China from 1956 to 2005, to identify their linkages to the PDO, AMO and climate change. They looked at monthly precipitation, surface air temperature, the PDO index, the AMO index and annual-mean northern-hemispheric surface temperatures.
The team found that while the PDO used to be the dominant controlling factor, its importance to China summer droughts has diminished since the early 1990s. Since then, drought patterns in China have been more strongly influenced by the AMO.
"This positive phase of the AMO has happened before," said Yu. "It happened some time before the 1960s, but a global cooling occurred at the same time, cancelling out the AMO's influence. The summer-drought pattern in China after the early 1990s has entered a new era that is more controlled by the conditions in the Atlantic Ocean than by the conditions in the Pacific Ocean. We want to make people aware of this, as many still assume that the PDO dominates."
This study builds on Yu's previous work, which found a shift in El Niño location around the same time as the shifting emphasis for climate patterns in China from the PDO to the AMO.
"This is a new central-Pacific El Niño," said Yu. "In the coming years, at around 2020, the AMO is due to go into another negative phase. Now that we better understand the influence of the Atlantic Ocean on drought patterns in China, we hope that our work will help to improve climate predictions in the region."
Researchers from the US and China have discovered that in the early 1990s the balance shifted, and the AMO is now the dominating factor for China's climate. The scientists have also shown that this shift is a consequence of global warming.
"After the early 1990s, drought patterns in China are no longer influenced by the PDO, but rather the AMO," said Jin-Yi Yu from the University of California, Irvine. "We believe climate tools should be revised to include first-order effects of the AMO."
Yu and colleagues examined the decadal variations of summer-drought frequency across Eastern China from 1956 to 2005, to identify their linkages to the PDO, AMO and climate change. They looked at monthly precipitation, surface air temperature, the PDO index, the AMO index and annual-mean northern-hemispheric surface temperatures.
The team found that while the PDO used to be the dominant controlling factor, its importance to China summer droughts has diminished since the early 1990s. Since then, drought patterns in China have been more strongly influenced by the AMO.
"This positive phase of the AMO has happened before," said Yu. "It happened some time before the 1960s, but a global cooling occurred at the same time, cancelling out the AMO's influence. The summer-drought pattern in China after the early 1990s has entered a new era that is more controlled by the conditions in the Atlantic Ocean than by the conditions in the Pacific Ocean. We want to make people aware of this, as many still assume that the PDO dominates."
This study builds on Yu's previous work, which found a shift in El Niño location around the same time as the shifting emphasis for climate patterns in China from the PDO to the AMO.
"This is a new central-Pacific El Niño," said Yu. "In the coming years, at around 2020, the AMO is due to go into another negative phase. Now that we better understand the influence of the Atlantic Ocean on drought patterns in China, we hope that our work will help to improve climate predictions in the region."
اینم نظر یکی از دوستان که واقعا دلگیر شدم از این طرز صحبت کردنش، و خوب من این پستو گذاشتم تا الان که ببینن من رو هوا چیزی نمیگم ،
ولی خوب استناد دوستان از حرفاشون چیه نمیدونم .
انشالله سال جدید با احترام بیشتر به هم و صد البته تحملمون رو در برابر نظر مخالف بیشتر کنیم، و همدیگرو متهم نکنیم
سامان جان قضاوتو به دوستان بسپار و به کارت ادامه بده اونایی که باید بفهمن میفهمن
It's time to fire up the Super El Nino chatter again
Rob Carlmark
3 hours ago
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NOAA
MJO just hit a record, and it's a sign that El Nino could strengthen.
Let me start off by saying we've been in this position before regarding the drought, and a possible chance to make up a lot of ground. In 2014 at this time we had just finished the driest calendar year on record for 2013, and were beginning the warmest. It was March of last year when we started seeing signs that something big was brewing in the Pacific. The Super El Nino signals waned and we ended up with a barely-there no impact weak El Nino. The only tangible impact was a record tying East Pacific Hurricane Season and record warm water up and down the Pacific.
Many signs last March were pointing to a rapid warm up of ocean temps at the equator and an El Nino as strong or stronger than the famous El Nino of 1997-98. With a weak or even moderate El Nino it doesn't give a strong signal for heavy rain in Northern California. With a very strong El Nino, it's a different story and you can make a connection.
The rainy seasons for the two biggest El Nino years of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were massive for California and tales of rain, snow, flooding and damage litter the narrative of those seasons. In 1997-98 Sacramento got close to 32 inches of rain.
NOAA
We had close to 32" of rain in Sacramento from Oct 1997-Sept.1998.
The Sierra had some areas with 500"+ of snow. It was a drought busting set-up if there ever was one, and that is what we need now to make up ground and get us to a safer place with water supply for the state.
Bestsnow.net
Some areas got an amazing amount of snow during the last Super El Nino.
We are seeing the same signs again this year signalling a strong El Nino potential by the end of Summer into Fall, but it's still early.
Let me take you what I am seeing.
First of all we are in a weak El Nino right now so it wouldn't take much more warming to get to moderate El Nino and eventually a strong or Super El Nino. The base conditions are warmer, so the path is somewhat easier.
We need everything to line up above and below the surface to get to a Super El Nino and we are seeing strong signs for both.
First we see the atmospheric conditions changing. We have just experienced a monster record Madden-Jullian Oscillation kick off in Asia. I need to simplify this to keep this interesting but after a huge MJO starts, you get strong westerly winds in the west Pacific. That brings warmer water to the East and kicks off warming El Nino conditions. Above the ocean it all looks good.
Beneath the surface we also see strong signs of warming water. Warm water can travel at depth from West to east under the surface. We call these Kelvin waves and there is a huge one now with ocean temps five to six degrees above normal. It's about halfway to South America and if it makes it, it will inject a ton of warm water to the East Pacific and backfill the warmer water to spread back to East across the equator.
The combination of above and below surface conditions look very similar to 1997 and this is the big picture story worth following at the moment looking ahead to the 2015-16 rainy season.
NOAA
Here is a long range forecast for El Nino potential this fall.
A couple of things worth mentioning about 1997-98, the season was VERY hit and miss, but when it came together it was huge but with large dry gaps between storms. Also, I have NO idea what will happen to the snow potential for next season. I believe the warm pool of water up and down the Pacific coast of North America has nudged the temps up, and snow level the last few years, that may happen again but I simply don't know at this point.
Expect a lot of chatter over the next few weeks regarding El Nino, Super El Nino, and comparisons to 1997 if all holds steady.
Rob Carlmark
3 hours ago
Google Plus
more
NOAA
MJO just hit a record, and it's a sign that El Nino could strengthen.
Let me start off by saying we've been in this position before regarding the drought, and a possible chance to make up a lot of ground. In 2014 at this time we had just finished the driest calendar year on record for 2013, and were beginning the warmest. It was March of last year when we started seeing signs that something big was brewing in the Pacific. The Super El Nino signals waned and we ended up with a barely-there no impact weak El Nino. The only tangible impact was a record tying East Pacific Hurricane Season and record warm water up and down the Pacific.
Many signs last March were pointing to a rapid warm up of ocean temps at the equator and an El Nino as strong or stronger than the famous El Nino of 1997-98. With a weak or even moderate El Nino it doesn't give a strong signal for heavy rain in Northern California. With a very strong El Nino, it's a different story and you can make a connection.
The rainy seasons for the two biggest El Nino years of 1982-83 and 1997-98 were massive for California and tales of rain, snow, flooding and damage litter the narrative of those seasons. In 1997-98 Sacramento got close to 32 inches of rain.
NOAA
We had close to 32" of rain in Sacramento from Oct 1997-Sept.1998.
The Sierra had some areas with 500"+ of snow. It was a drought busting set-up if there ever was one, and that is what we need now to make up ground and get us to a safer place with water supply for the state.
Bestsnow.net
Some areas got an amazing amount of snow during the last Super El Nino.
We are seeing the same signs again this year signalling a strong El Nino potential by the end of Summer into Fall, but it's still early.
Let me take you what I am seeing.
First of all we are in a weak El Nino right now so it wouldn't take much more warming to get to moderate El Nino and eventually a strong or Super El Nino. The base conditions are warmer, so the path is somewhat easier.
We need everything to line up above and below the surface to get to a Super El Nino and we are seeing strong signs for both.
First we see the atmospheric conditions changing. We have just experienced a monster record Madden-Jullian Oscillation kick off in Asia. I need to simplify this to keep this interesting but after a huge MJO starts, you get strong westerly winds in the west Pacific. That brings warmer water to the East and kicks off warming El Nino conditions. Above the ocean it all looks good.
Beneath the surface we also see strong signs of warming water. Warm water can travel at depth from West to east under the surface. We call these Kelvin waves and there is a huge one now with ocean temps five to six degrees above normal. It's about halfway to South America and if it makes it, it will inject a ton of warm water to the East Pacific and backfill the warmer water to spread back to East across the equator.
The combination of above and below surface conditions look very similar to 1997 and this is the big picture story worth following at the moment looking ahead to the 2015-16 rainy season.
NOAA
Here is a long range forecast for El Nino potential this fall.
A couple of things worth mentioning about 1997-98, the season was VERY hit and miss, but when it came together it was huge but with large dry gaps between storms. Also, I have NO idea what will happen to the snow potential for next season. I believe the warm pool of water up and down the Pacific coast of North America has nudged the temps up, and snow level the last few years, that may happen again but I simply don't know at this point.
Expect a lot of chatter over the next few weeks regarding El Nino, Super El Nino, and comparisons to 1997 if all holds steady.
مرسي محمدرضا جان. الان من يه مطلبي رو ميخوام بگم جرات نميكنم كه باز به كسي بر بخوره. آخه اين چه آزادي بيانيه. ما حتي توي يه فروم معمولي هم نميتونيم حرف بزنيم. ببينيد مطلبي كه ميخوام بگم اينه، اگه به امار بارشي و ميانگين ماهانه مناطق غرب و خصوصا جنوب غرب نگاه كنيد، الان كه در اواخر مارچ هستيم پيك بارشيشون تموم شده و الان زمان اين نوع از الگوهاي جنوبي نيست. همه ساله در اين موقع از سال الگوهها شمالي ميشن و ديگه ايام عيد همونطور كه در خاطره مشهديا و همونطور مسافران مشهد هست ، عيد و فروردين سردي به واسطه نفوذ متعدد سيستمهاي شمالي با رطوبت خزري و درياي سياه هستيم/ اما امسال شرايط داشت خوب پيش ميرفت، الگوها كاملا شمالي شده بودن و نقش دريايهاي شمال پر رنگ شده بود كه به ناگاه با سقوط Ao و همينوطور nao شرايط عوض شد و الگوها غربي و جنوبي شد. و الان يه بارشهايي در مناطق جنوب غرب و جنوب غرب رخ ميده كه با شرايط نرمال فاصله داره. خوب دليل اين حرف من اين نيست كه حسودم....منظور مطلب اينه كه اين يه انومالي است. اميدوارم روند مثبت شاخصها دوباره شرايطو به حالت نرمال اين موقع از سالش برسونه
میگم همیشه بدون سند میخوای چیزی را اثبات کنی همینه
ماه مارچ و آپریل اوج فعالیت سامانه های سودانی هست که تبعا غرب و جنوب غرب بیشترین بهره را میبرند
این دریاهای شمالی هم که میفرمایید تا رطوبتشون به منطقه ما برسه نیست و نابود میشه و در واقع رطوبت جنوبیست که به سامانه ها تزریق میشه
این به اصطلاح شاخص هایی که شما میفرمایید که از نظر تاثیر گذاری بر آب و هوا در رده 3 یا 4 قرار میگیرن و اصلا درایور آب و هوایی نیستن بلکه با تغییر شاخص هایی مثل mjo مثبت یا منفی میشن و از اونها تاثیر میپذیرن
همچنان اون شاخص هایی که شما میفرمایید تا روز 23 مارچ منفی خواهند بود
راستی چرا این شاخص ها که الان منفی هستند ولی منطقه ما دمای کمتر از نرمالی داره؟
حسین اکبریان
New member
من پیشاپیش سال جدید را به همه دوستان تبریک می گم . امیر محسن عزیز سال نو بر شما مبارک باشه.
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