Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
اینهم شاخص مهم دیگه و رطوبت در تراز 700 میلی بار:
-
توجه: در صورتی که از کاربران قدیمی ایران انجمن هستید و امکان ورود به سایت را ندارید، میتوانید با آیدی altin_admin@ در تلگرام تماس حاصل نمایید.
مباحث عمومی هواشناسی
- شروع کننده موضوع Amir Mohsen
- تاریخ شروع
- وضعیت
خوب این خاصیت بارشهای بهاره حالا من زیاد اصفحان و شیرازو نمیدونم ولی در مورد تهران اینو میدونم که هر موقع بارشهای زمستون خوب نبودند بهار خوب بوده من از بچگی اینجا بزرگ شدم ومثل بقیه حسی هم شده میتونم محل زندگیمو پیش بینی کنم مثال بداز سال88که اونجوری شد تهران فروردین 89بارشهای بسیار خوبی شد!!!!!
حامد جان از صمیم قلب امیدوارم شرایط برگرده و از این وضع خلاص بشیم ولی نقشه ها چیز دیگه ای دارن نشون میدن.
باید تو شهر شهمیرزاد باشی تا بدونی من میگم هر سیستمی میاد اینجا میباره ارتفاع از سطح دریا 2000
کوهستانی بودن ش دلیل این بارش هاست که من میگم
بارش باران به درد منابع آبی کشوری مثل ایران که عملا 6 ماه از سال بارش قابلی نداره نمیخوره! بارش باید بصورت انبوه برف در زمستان باشه تا بصورت یخچال های طبیعی برای تابستان و فصل بدون بارش ذخیره بشه، وگرنه باریدن 100 میلیمتر بارونی که در آخر سر از دریاچه نمک قم درمیاره چه دردی رو از تهران یا البرز دوا میکنه؟!
و شهمیرزاد هم اصلا از هر ابر بارش نمیگیره . فکر میکنم نرمالش در حد 330 باشه که تو مایه های ژئوفیزیک تهران هست نزدیک مرکز شهر . تحلیل هایی که میکنید جالبه
البته خدا زیاد کنه برف و بارون همه جا رو ولی خواهشا تهران و کویری جلوه ندید !
دوست خوبم دلیل اینکه میگم کوهستانی بودن شهمیرزاد و بالا ان است ارتفاع ار سطح دریا 2000
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
الان که اطلاعات مدلها رو میخوندم از مدل زیر به عنوان بهترین شاخص برای پیش بینی بارندگی و خصوصا بارش برف استفاده میشه و گفته شده که از تراز 700 میلی بار بهتره و میشه Front رو به خوبی باهش شناسایی کرد:
[h=2]Equivalent Potential Temperature ('Theta - E') A useful quantity because it is calculated taking the humidity content of the air into account - and as most 'interesting' meteorology is to do with atmospheric moisture, Theta E (Q[SIZE=-1][SUB]E[/SUB]
[h=2]Equivalent Potential Temperature ('Theta - E') A useful quantity because it is calculated taking the humidity content of the air into account - and as most 'interesting' meteorology is to do with atmospheric moisture, Theta E (Q[SIZE=-1][SUB]E[/SUB]
) is a better 'tracer' of air-mass property (at 850 hPa**) than temperature alone. It is a conservative property (doesn't change much) during both dry and moist adiabatic processes.
> The actual value of Theta-E can be useful: it can be used in algorithms to calculate daytime maximum temperature and snow-risk for example (as for Theta-W[SUP]#[/SUP]). Remember though that this variable couples temperature AND absolute humidity: so high values show areas of warm, potentially more humid air (e.g. tropical maritime or modified tropical continental air-masses); lower values pick out colder, lower-humidity content air (e.g. polar maritime air-mass).
> Where there is a marked or 'sharp' discontinuity in values (best seen on colour-enhanced output), then some attempt at frontal placement can be made.
> The location of axes of plumes of high (orange/red) Theta-E, act as a "focus" for significant thundery activity: a plume of such air running northwards over NW Europe ahead of an upper trough coming eastwards may herald the initiation of a ' Spanish Plume' (q.v.); event.
> Although not strictly appropriate to these charts, it is pertinent to note here that the vertical distribution of Theta-E (and Theta-W) with height is a useful diagnostic of whether an air-mass possesses Potential (or Convective) Instability (q.v). If a column of air is lifted bodily, the temperature decrease varies from level to level, particularly because some layers become cloudy (and acquire the released latent heat) sooner than others. Therefore, certain layers can become unstable simply because they have been 'mechanically' lifted - these can be found by inspecting a thermodynamic diagram (or tabulated list of data), and finding layers [roughly between 900 and 400 hPa] where Theta-E (or Theta-W) decreases with height.
[SUP]#[/SUP][SIZE=-1][ in the UK service, the Wet-bulb potential temperature (Theta-W) is more usually used for these purposes, but is not readily available on external web sites - Theta E will do the same job though.][/SIZE]
** [SIZE=-1][ Beware of using these parameters at 850 hPa as tracers of air-mass change slavishly. Provided the air in the lowest 2 km of atmosphere is well-mixed, then they are indeed excellent for this purpose. However, in stagnant situations, or where there is marked 'de-coupling' between the quasi-frictionless flow above about 900 hPa and the surface, (or boundary-level) air, changes at 1500 m (i.e. 850 hPa) may not tell the whole story. ][/SIZE]
[/SIZE]> The actual value of Theta-E can be useful: it can be used in algorithms to calculate daytime maximum temperature and snow-risk for example (as for Theta-W[SUP]#[/SUP]). Remember though that this variable couples temperature AND absolute humidity: so high values show areas of warm, potentially more humid air (e.g. tropical maritime or modified tropical continental air-masses); lower values pick out colder, lower-humidity content air (e.g. polar maritime air-mass).
> Where there is a marked or 'sharp' discontinuity in values (best seen on colour-enhanced output), then some attempt at frontal placement can be made.
> The location of axes of plumes of high (orange/red) Theta-E, act as a "focus" for significant thundery activity: a plume of such air running northwards over NW Europe ahead of an upper trough coming eastwards may herald the initiation of a ' Spanish Plume' (q.v.); event.
> Although not strictly appropriate to these charts, it is pertinent to note here that the vertical distribution of Theta-E (and Theta-W) with height is a useful diagnostic of whether an air-mass possesses Potential (or Convective) Instability (q.v). If a column of air is lifted bodily, the temperature decrease varies from level to level, particularly because some layers become cloudy (and acquire the released latent heat) sooner than others. Therefore, certain layers can become unstable simply because they have been 'mechanically' lifted - these can be found by inspecting a thermodynamic diagram (or tabulated list of data), and finding layers [roughly between 900 and 400 hPa] where Theta-E (or Theta-W) decreases with height.
[SUP]#[/SUP][SIZE=-1][ in the UK service, the Wet-bulb potential temperature (Theta-W) is more usually used for these purposes, but is not readily available on external web sites - Theta E will do the same job though.][/SIZE]
** [SIZE=-1][ Beware of using these parameters at 850 hPa as tracers of air-mass change slavishly. Provided the air in the lowest 2 km of atmosphere is well-mixed, then they are indeed excellent for this purpose. However, in stagnant situations, or where there is marked 'de-coupling' between the quasi-frictionless flow above about 900 hPa and the surface, (or boundary-level) air, changes at 1500 m (i.e. 850 hPa) may not tell the whole story. ][/SIZE]
فرمانده پلیس راه مازندران گفت: مردم از سفرهای غیرضروری خودداری کنند.سرهنگ جعفر محمدنژاد در گفت‌وگو با ایسنا، اظهار کرد: در حال حاضر تمام محورهای مواصلاتی استان دارای ترافیکی آرام و روانی است.وی با بیان اینکه سطح جاده‌های مازندران دارای یخ زدگی و لغزندگی شدیدی است، گفت: به رانندگان توصیه می‌شود با احتیاط برانند.فرمانده پلیس راه مازندران یادآور شد: به دلیل یخ زدگی در محورهای مواصلاتی استان از اداره کل راه و شهرسازی درخواست شده نسبت به نمک پاشی در محورهای مواصلاتی استان اقدام کند.سرهنگ محمدنژاد با اشاره به اینکه مردم از سفرهای غیرضروری خودداری کنند، افزود: همراه داشتن زنجیرچرخ و تجهیزات زمستانی برای رانندگان ضروری است.
http://www.asriran.com/fa/news/252252/%D9%BE%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B3%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%BA%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF
http://www.asriran.com/fa/news/252252/%D9%BE%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B3%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%BA%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF
خوب این که مشخصه که برف زمستون بهتره ولی الان سد های زیادی هست تهرانم نشون داده که زمستون خوب نبوده تونسته خودشو نجات بده تازه ما بواسطه بارشهای سال قبل ذخیره خوبی از لحاظ منابع ابی داریم!!!
سامیار هواشناس
کاربر ويژه
صحبت بنده همین الان هست جمعه همین هفته ای که گذشت که شهمیرزاد برف و با ذره بین باید پیدا میکردی و میدیدی فولاد محله در نزدیکی شما 40 سانتی متر برف بارید
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=5]Objectives
To investigate the evolution of convective stability parameters during rapid intensification of Katrina simulation. Descriptions of data and model can be found here
[h=5]Index 1. Method
2. Results
· CAPE
· LI
· Boyancy
3. Conclusions
4. Reference
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Method of calculation
1.1 CAPE
· Is calculated from the lowest level (i.e. 1000hPa). Air parcel is assumed to be dry lifted to LCL, and later moist adiabatically upward. The procedure is adopted from “plotskew.gs” by Bob Hart from GRADS website. Vertical interation is 10hPa, up to 100hPa.
· Location: top middle
· Values less than 1500 Jkg[SUP]-1[/SUP] are blanked. (CAPE > 1500 is considered as large, see http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/305/)
1.2 LI (Lifted Index)
· Is the difference b/w parcel temperature Tp and environmental temperature Te at 500pPa: (Tp – Te)[SUB]500[/SUB].
· Location: top left panels
· Negative values less than -6 indicate very unstable conditions.
1.3 Buoyancy at 850hPa
· Is calculated as
to show the local difference of virtual temperature b/w a point with the surrounding
· Location: bottom left panels
· Pink to red colors are positive anomalies, blue shades are negative
1.4 Strain-Enstrophy
· Similar to filamentation timescale idea sugested by Rozoff et al. (2006) , but it’s just the difference between strain (S[SUP]2[/SUP][SUB]1[/SUB] + S[SUP]2[/SUP][SUB]2[/SUB]), where S[SUB]1[/SUB] = u[SUB]x[/SUB] −
[SUB]y[/SUB] and S[SUB]2[/SUB] =
[SUB]x[/SUB] + u[SUB]y[/SUB] , and enstrophy (
[SUP]2[/SUP]).
· Location: bottom middle panels
· Positive values (pink) represent the region where is greater than vorticity => Unfavourable for convection. Negative values are in blue shades
1.5 PBL mixing ratio
· Average of mixing ratio in the layers 1000-900hPa.
· Location: top right panels
1.6 PBL theta E
· Average of thetaE in the layers 1000-900hPa.
· Location: bottom right panels
[h=5]2. Results Click the links in the table below to see the plots
Radius – Time plots
Comments :
· CAPE
· LI
· Boyancy
2.1 CAPE:
· Core region has high CAPE
· CAPE is (a bit surprisingly) locally minimum in the eyewall region. It’s maybe because it’s been consumed by convection already => Need to check the more frequent outputs to see which one (convection or CAPE) leads.
· During symmetric phase (eg. 39h, 50h), bands of moderate convection collocate with relatively weak CAPE but still greater than 1500JKg[SUP]-1[/SUP]. However, these bands are not connected with the high CAPE regions in the TC core.
· In the Asymmetric phase (e.g 44h) areas near strong VHTs have relatively small CAPE (less than 1500JKg[SUP]-1[/SUP]), indicating that CAPE has been consumed by strong convection. However, these VHTs are connected with the tips of high CAPE region of the core => this connection seems to feed high CAPE of the core to these VHTs.
· CIN is calculated as well. Its values are very small (less than 10Jkg[SUP]-1[/SUP]) everywhere and all the time, and so is not worth to be displayed here .
2.2 LI:
· LI is favourable all the time for convection. (all values are less than -8, where -6 is already very unstable and favourable for severe convection)
· Core region, and even the eyewall is not as unstable as the outer regions (max LI areas generally reside outside of about 80km from the TC center).
· It seems right for the core since warm core above should have stable stratification. In the eyewall, the (relatively) low value of LI could be explained by the stabilizing effects of convection.
2.3 Buoyancy at 850hPa
2.4 Strain-Enstrophy
· Convective bands generally stay in the vorticity dominated regions (i.e. vorticity is greater than strain), and hence, not unfavourable for convection.
· Strong convection seems to produce vorticity, and therefore, ‘protect’ itself from adverse effects of strong strain.
· During asymmetric phase, strong strain regions are located at the edge and just outside of strong VHTs. Toward the symmetric phase, strain relaxes to smaller values => allow more convective bands to get into the core.
2.5 PBL moisture and thetaE
· Structure of PBL mixing ratio and thetaE are consistent with the high values in the core
· The shape of these core (of mixing ratio and thetaE) changes in agreement with general TC structure, i.e. more symmetric and circular in the symmetric phase (eg. 39h, 50h), and more asymmetric (rectangle, triangle and an elongated band cross TC centre) during the asymmetric phase. (e.g 44h)
[h=5]3. Conclusions
[h=5]4. Reference Rozoff, C.M., W.H. Schubert, B.D. McNoldy, and J.P. Kossin, 2006: Rapid Filamentation Zones in Intense Tropical Cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 325–340.
Plotskew.gs can be found at http://grads.iges.org/grads/gadoc/gadocindex.html
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
بله آرش عزیز منم فراموش نکردم...پاییز بارقه های امیدی اومد که بازم می خوایم به گذشته برگردیم!تا هفته اول دی عالی رفت جلو ولی الان با این وضعیت یه ماه خشکیو می گذرونیم!بدتر از اون پراکندیه بسیار بده بارش هاست...آخه از لحاظ میانگین اکثرا نرمالیم ولی یه ماه خشکی ضربه بدی به کشاورزی می زنه!الان بعد از اون بارش ها دونه ها تازه جوونه زده و باید سیراب شن!خدا خودش رحم کنه:گل:
بله خودش رو نجات داده البته به قیمت نابود کردن سفره های آب زیرزمینی، نفوذ فاضلاب به آب های شرب، وجود نیترات در حد لالیگا در آب شرب! نابودی محیط زیست رودهائی که برای آب شرب تهران استفاده میشن و دیگه آبی برای کشاورزی نمیمونه و . . . .
ضمنا سد های اطراف تهران هیچ کدوم ظرفیت میلیارد متر مکعبی ندارن که از سالهای قبل چیزی باقی مونده باشه! هر مقدار آب وارد سد میشه به مصرف میرسه.
بحث در این مورد بجای نمیرسه چون بسیار گسترده هست، کفایت مذاکرات:گل:
Amir Mohsen
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
[h=2]The Omega Equation There is an equation in atmospheric physics known as "the Omega equation": it allows synoptic-scale vertical motion to be accurately estimated by analysing temperature and wind fields above the boundary layer, leading to a value for vertical velocity (allocated the greek letter 'omega'), in pressure co-ordinates (dp/dt).
[ By the way, because pressure decreases with increasing height in the atmosphere, ascending air gives rise to a negative value: therefore on computer output, -ve values imply ascending air, +ve values descending air. ]
In it's broadest exposition, the Omega equation brings together the forcing due to vertical variation of absolute vorticity advection, the thermal advection terms (various) and components due to diabatic warming. These factors can be viewed subjectively (e.g. a PVA area engaging a focus of strong warm advection will lead to strong upward motion and vigorous surface development).
Q-Vectors
A numerical model though needs to have all this in terms of rigorous mathematical formulae (albeit with some approximations) that can be solved. On the way to calculating all this development, the models spew out all sorts of diagnostics that can be used by forecasters: one such are 'Q-vectors'. These are found by using a 'cut-down' form of the Omega equation developed by Hoskins, Draghici & Davies in 1978.
The vector "Q" is dependent upon the rate of change (with time) of the potential temperature gradient brought about solely by horizontal change in the wind-field (derived using model contour fields, geostrophic.)
Q-vectors are not a measureable quantity like the actual wind or the temperature - they are more akin to the 'thermal wind', with which they are in fact allied.
They are derived, as indicated above, by manipulation of the Omega equation. In brief, the concept of the Q-vector is a mathematical representation of the atmosphere's attempt to restore the thermal field once it has been disturbed from its 'equilibrium' state of both hydrostatic (1) and geostrophic (2) balance. This 'restoring force' is deemed to be via ageostrophic motions, which are most important in determining where development is occurring.
[Notes:
(1): hydrostatic balance: the 'struggle' between the pressure gradient acting upwards, due to decreasing pressure with height, and the force of earth's gravity acting in the opposite direction - the hydrostatic equation represents this process.
(2): geostrophic balance: the 'struggle' between the pressure gradient (all planes, though usually taken as horizontal) and the deflection due to the earth's rotation - the equations of motion represent these.]
Where Q-vectors are convergent (i.e. negative divergence), the forcing is normally associated with tropospheric ascent (or low-level development / falling pressure.
Where Q-vectors are divergent, the forcing is normally associated with tropospheric descent (or low-level decay / rising pressure ).
Also, where Q-vectors are directed from cold to warm air, (at 850 hPa) this implies frontogenesis (a tightening-up of the thermal field); the opposite implies frontolysis (or frontal decay).
On various charts available via the Westwind site:-
FQ :=Forcing due to Q-vector convergence / divergence.
FQ: +ve divergence==> descent / non-developmental
FQ: -ve divergence==> ascent / developmental (or convergence)
The higher the number (+ve or -ve), the deeper the colour and the greater the forcing term. These data are usually shown in association with the 500 hPa field, roughly at the level of non-divergence (or maximum vertical velocity).
FQn
:=the component of Q 'normal' (i.e. at right-angles) to the isotherms and for most work, the isotherms used are those at 850 hPa; for mountainous terrain though, 700 hPa should be used.
FQn: strongly -ve in cold air=> frontogenetic
FQn: strongly +ve in warm air=> frontogenetic
Best used to find areas of 'strong blue' (positive) immediately adjacent to 'strong red' (negative); this implies synoptic-scale processes in place enhancing frontal development / ascent etc (or frontogenesis).
[ By the way, because pressure decreases with increasing height in the atmosphere, ascending air gives rise to a negative value: therefore on computer output, -ve values imply ascending air, +ve values descending air. ]
In it's broadest exposition, the Omega equation brings together the forcing due to vertical variation of absolute vorticity advection, the thermal advection terms (various) and components due to diabatic warming. These factors can be viewed subjectively (e.g. a PVA area engaging a focus of strong warm advection will lead to strong upward motion and vigorous surface development).
Q-Vectors
A numerical model though needs to have all this in terms of rigorous mathematical formulae (albeit with some approximations) that can be solved. On the way to calculating all this development, the models spew out all sorts of diagnostics that can be used by forecasters: one such are 'Q-vectors'. These are found by using a 'cut-down' form of the Omega equation developed by Hoskins, Draghici & Davies in 1978.
The vector "Q" is dependent upon the rate of change (with time) of the potential temperature gradient brought about solely by horizontal change in the wind-field (derived using model contour fields, geostrophic.)
Q-vectors are not a measureable quantity like the actual wind or the temperature - they are more akin to the 'thermal wind', with which they are in fact allied.
They are derived, as indicated above, by manipulation of the Omega equation. In brief, the concept of the Q-vector is a mathematical representation of the atmosphere's attempt to restore the thermal field once it has been disturbed from its 'equilibrium' state of both hydrostatic (1) and geostrophic (2) balance. This 'restoring force' is deemed to be via ageostrophic motions, which are most important in determining where development is occurring.
[Notes:
(1): hydrostatic balance: the 'struggle' between the pressure gradient acting upwards, due to decreasing pressure with height, and the force of earth's gravity acting in the opposite direction - the hydrostatic equation represents this process.
(2): geostrophic balance: the 'struggle' between the pressure gradient (all planes, though usually taken as horizontal) and the deflection due to the earth's rotation - the equations of motion represent these.]
Where Q-vectors are convergent (i.e. negative divergence), the forcing is normally associated with tropospheric ascent (or low-level development / falling pressure.
Where Q-vectors are divergent, the forcing is normally associated with tropospheric descent (or low-level decay / rising pressure ).
Also, where Q-vectors are directed from cold to warm air, (at 850 hPa) this implies frontogenesis (a tightening-up of the thermal field); the opposite implies frontolysis (or frontal decay).
On various charts available via the Westwind site:-
FQ :=Forcing due to Q-vector convergence / divergence.
FQ: +ve divergence==> descent / non-developmental
FQ: -ve divergence==> ascent / developmental (or convergence)
The higher the number (+ve or -ve), the deeper the colour and the greater the forcing term. These data are usually shown in association with the 500 hPa field, roughly at the level of non-divergence (or maximum vertical velocity).
FQn
:=the component of Q 'normal' (i.e. at right-angles) to the isotherms and for most work, the isotherms used are those at 850 hPa; for mountainous terrain though, 700 hPa should be used.
FQn: strongly -ve in cold air=> frontogenetic
FQn: strongly +ve in warm air=> frontogenetic
Best used to find areas of 'strong blue' (positive) immediately adjacent to 'strong red' (negative); this implies synoptic-scale processes in place enhancing frontal development / ascent etc (or frontogenesis).
mehrdad_teh
متخصص بخش هواشناسی
درحالی که کل دریای مدیترانه زیر بارش سنگین هست، ما در حال سماق مکیدن هستیم!!!
علت این سماق مکیدن وجود پشته ای عمیق بر روی نیمه غربی خاورمیانه ست پشته حاصل از پر فشار جنب حاره ای که جریانات اصلی رو از منطقه ما به سمت عرض های بالاتر منحرف می کنه. این اتفاق باعث میشه که سیستم های شکل گرفته در مرکز اروپا وارد خاورمیانه نشن دریای سرخ هم به تنهایی نمی تونهبارش های فراگیر ایجاد کنه.
ا
انتظار دارم با حرکت شرق سوی این پشته و استقرار اون بر کشور پاییداری به اوج خودش برسه.
طالقان در واگرایی برف !:ناراحت:
ali.doosti
کاربر ويژه
اساتید یه بارشک 2.5 م.م تا یه شنبه پیش بینی شده برای ما!از کجا میاد و آیا تو نقشه ها نفوذ رطوبتی چیزی داریم؟
| Thursday17 January | Friday18 January | Saturday19 January | Sunday20 January | Monday21 January | Tuesday22 January | Wednesday23 January | Thursday24 January | Friday25 January |
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| 15° | 14° | 11° | 12° | 13° | 12° | 12° | 12° | 13° |
| 0.6 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0.7 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 1.3 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours | 0 mm precipitation per 24 hours |
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